March Madness without the NET - Good news or Bad news for Spiders

[RichmondNative]

https://247sports.com/Article/NCAA-...-on-2021-March-Madness-tournament--149015212/

Dan Gavitt on 2021 March Madness "With a fewer number of games, particularly if there’s not cross-pollination of games with non-conference games at some level, the efficacy of the NET and other metrics would be challenged. And it may be that the committee has to just do more work in observing games and using more qualitative evaluation of teams than the quantitative that we’ve relied on.”

Since the current trends suggest there will be no non-conference games in college basketball assuming it can actually happen, the question quickly becomes is this good news or bad news for the Spiders tournament hopes. I am currently leaning towards bad news, meaning the Spiders will once again have to get the auto-qualifier (whatever that may be) to guarantee a birth.

What do others think?

 

[spider23]

Agree with you, was thinking of this the other day. Look at Dayton and San Diego State last year, no way they are in the top 5 without really good OOC games and wins, they may never sniff the top 25. We are well outside the bubble without the Wisconsin game. I think it makes it really tough outside the p6.

 

[SFspidur]

I think the fact that we're coming off a solid season and have preseason buzz will definitely help. Always harder to get on the radar than it is to stay on it.

So take care of business and I think we'll get the recognition we deserve, assuming there's a season.

 

[spider23]

We are on Goodman's radar, but Rothstein is probably the more P6/ncaa committee/mainstream view unfortunately.

 

[SFspidur]

Rothstein has us at #32 right now. We're definitely on the radar.

 

[fan2011]

I would hope this helps the smaller conferences. The only reason teams that go .500 in power conferences get bids is due to their OOC 'proving' the difficulty of their conference. Without the OOC, comparing teams in different conferences is very difficult.

 

[gospidersgo]

Since the current trends suggest there will be no non-conference games in college basketball assuming it can actually happen

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid? Us traveling to St. Louis is safer than us playing ODU for example? And can't the virus spread just as easily against one team as it does another?

 

[plydogg]

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid? Us traveling to St. Louis is safer than us playing ODU for example? And can't the virus spread just as easily against one team as it does another?

I was under the impression that the reason for it was to be able to delay the season by another month or two until conference games would have happened. But maybe that’s not what they’re doing but from what I read it appeared that way. Not really sure though since I didn’t fully read into it. SF may know more here

 

[SFspidur]

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid? Us traveling to St. Louis is safer than us playing ODU for example? And can't the virus spread just as easily against one team as it does another?

The main thing is it pushes back the start of the season to buy more time to get a handle on things before teams start traveling around.

There's a big "if" involved in that though.

 

[RichmondNative]

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid?

Nothing to do with travel. Less games = less risk and the fact that most conference games do not start until later part of season, so they are simply buying time.

 

[urfan1]

I believe time is a factor, add to that limited travel, and I would say within conference you have a better understanding as to what each school is doing to protect against the spread.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid? Us traveling to St. Louis is safer than us playing ODU for example? And can't the virus spread just as easily against one team as it does another?

SCIENCE!

 

[fan2011]

Seems like this is the current trend but someone please help me because I'm not seeing it - how does only playing conference games make any difference in regards to the spread of covid? Us traveling to St. Louis is safer than us playing ODU for example? And can't the virus spread just as easily against one team as it does another?

If there is an outbreak it will hopefully be isolated to a single conference instead of spread around all of d1.

 

[gospidersgo]

Good answers all. But I guess my bigger point is either it's safe to play or it's not. It's inevitable that someone will get it during the season. So it seems silly to me to change to conference only instead of either just cancelling the season altogether or coming to grips with the fact that some people getting it is unavoidable.

I just can't be convinced that UR vs ODU would be more dangerous for spreading a virus than say Rutgers at Nebraska.

 

[VT4700]

If distance were a factor, and I don't think it is, UR vs. ODU seems like it would be fine, but where do you draw the line? Do you say you can play a team within 100 miles? Then, what happens if some teams play 5 OOC games and others 0? You just can't expect that to work. You either play OOC games or you don't, and it makes sense with everything going on to probably just do IC games. This would buy more time, and would provide less travel and less games overall. Right now, less is better than more. Also, urfan1 makes a good point that keeping conference only schedules allows you to have a much better idea of what is going on. I'm sure there will be ongoing conference calls with updates from each school about where things stand with the team and the school.

 

[MrTbone]

If distance were a factor, and I don't think it is, UR vs. ODU seems like it would be fine, but where do you draw the line? Do you say you can play a team within 100 miles? Then, what happens if some teams play 5 OOC games and others 0? You just can't expect that to work. You either play OOC games or you don't, and it makes sense with everything going on to probably just do IC games. This would buy more time, and would provide less travel and less games overall. Right now, less is better than more. Also, urfan1 makes a good point that keeping conference only schedules allows you to have a much better idea of what is going on. I'm sure there will be ongoing conference calls with updates from each school about where things stand with the team and the school.

As noted previously, I think has little to do with distance, and more to do with “bubbles”. Limiting play to in conference foes reduces exposure logarithmically I imagine. It’s still a pretty flawed strategy if that’s in fact what the decision is based on though. But they’re keeping hope alive.

 

[Eight Legger]

The reason to play only conference games is because no one in the A10 has COVID, but lots of people in the other conferences do.

 

[VT4700]

If we play conference only games, you would have a maximum of 14 teams involved. If we played out of conference games, it goes on and on with how many teams are involved. If we played ODU for example, who did they play a few games before us? And who did that team play? Or, when we play our first conference game, who did they play a few games before playing us? At least with conference only games, we are talking about only 14 teams and about 182 players. There will be risk involved, and nothing is perfect, but it's a lot better than the alternative of playing anyone anywhere.

 

[spiderman]

conference only is a reasonable compromise between the "back to normal" crowd and the "shut it down" crowd.

but what do you think the over/under on games we play is?odds are extremely high that a player in our conference will at some point get this. when he does, everyone on his team and the teams he's recently played will need to be quarantined. for 14 days. and that clock resets as others test positive.

I don't see this season going well. hope I'm wrong.

 

[97spiderfan]

If they get rid of OOC, it gives us another couple months to get this shit show together, is the main reason I see for getting rid of it. Football has already set the precident.

I will say the TBT tournament has shown us a model for playing basketball though with how they managed their bubble in Columbus.

 

[SFspidur]

TBT is a much smaller scale than an NCAA season though, with the entire thing taking place over just 10 days. And even then, five teams had to withdraw before the tournament due to positive tests. One of those was unable to be replaced in time, so their opponent got a bye.

Doesn't exactly bode well.

 

[GKiller]

We are on Goodman's radar, but Rothstein is probably the more P6/ncaa committee/mainstream view unfortunately.

Rothstein has us at #32 right now. We're definitely on the radar.

32 but easier to go down from 32 and he's underselling us. The buzz helps which is why it made zero sense for Mooney to go on Rothstein show and not talk us up so much more when he had the opportunity. I brought it up then, u gotta maximize. And very possibly Rothstein would have us higher.

Ultimately anything that involves the "eye test" favors the P6 so a lost non conf does us no favors. In that scenario they would also justify using metrics such as Kenpom that predict strength based on past conference results so its not like the conferences will be viewed equally, even though in a vacuum there is no real differentiation. But they'll have to take some mids as at larges, so we're in a better position than almost anyone else, if we use it properly which I have my doubts about, Mooney/Rothstein interview exhibit A.

Obviously hope it doesn't come down to that. Personally if you are going to delay - and for basketball u still have plenty of time imo & the ability to look at success/failure of other sports - but if it came to that make it May Madness. Do the the full season including all OOC in the spring semester ending it in May.

 

[PhillySpider]

I think it helps us and lesser conferences in general. It was one thing to give a team that was 7-11 in the Big Ten a bid when they were also 17-13 overall. Its going to be a whole other thing in my mind to open up the tourney to at-large's that have overall losing records even if they are all conference. The "Body of work" argument went a long way there to allowing the non-conference portion to offset the conference portion and the NET provided some "objectivity" to Committee to pick these teams. If there are zero non-conference games throughout the Nation, the Big Ten Net and the A-10 Net and the SWAC Net will all be the same in the end and simply the better the record, the better the Net. So, as GAvitt said in his announcement the Committee is going to have to use more subjective evaluations etc. That's going to really put them in a bad place picking a 7-11 P6 Team over a 22-8 mid-major conference team purely on "observation". Can get away with that when you have some cover from OOC records and NET to make it look more objective etc.

Might lead to a rule (whether actual or defacto) that unless you are 500 or better in conference, no at-large for you. I think this should be a rule anyway, but the Power schools wont let it become one because the current system works great for them. But not sure the Committee member from say LSU wants to be on the Committee and getting massive flack for letting in 9 ACC teams and 10 Big Ten teams in when there isnt any evidence to support it. The back room dealing that could take place is frightening there and no basketball evidence to support either way. That will make the Committee a scary place to be and I'd think they want to take some heat off the Committee members by giving them a little more in the way of rules to keep the politicking and the criticism to a minimum.

 

[spiderman]

I think it helps us and lesser conferences in general. It was one thing to give a team that was 7-11 in the Big Ten a bid when they were also 17-13 overall.

^ I agree with this. there's no SOS. I guess you can argue "eyeball test", but other than that it's tough to put in a team without a good record .

 

[SpiderRick]

When they finally get a proven vaccine, there is going to be one hell of a long lasting party!

 

[RichmondNative]

^ I agree with this. there's no SOS. I guess you can argue "eyeball test", but other than that it's tough to put in a team without a good record .

I think they avoid that issue by reducing the size of the field. I think that is a possibility based on the way things are currently trending.

 

[spider23]

When they finally get a proven vaccine, there is going to be one hell of a long lasting party!

I'm in Rick!

I will say despite the botch job by the US in most areas around the covid, I think the FDA and government are helping to enable vaccine and therapies at a safe and expedited pace. I'm hopeful on this front. Fauci says by end of year. I am thinking March 1st.

 

[Eight Legger]

I'm in Rick!

I will say despite the botch job by the US in most areas around the covid, I think the FDA and government are helping to enable vaccine and therapies at a safe and expedited pace. I'm hopeful on this front. Fauci says by end of year. I am thinking March 1st.

Delay college football, baseball and basketball until March, then play the national championship game, Final Four and College World Series during the same week in July.

 

[97spiderfan]

Delay college football, baseball and basketball until March, then play the national championship game, Final Four and College World Series during the same week in July.

And everyone with paid vacations that week to watch it all take place. Except for bars and restaurants which we can safely back with people to enjoy the festivities.

 

[97spiderfan]

TBT is a much smaller scale than an NCAA season though, with the entire thing taking place over just 10 days. And even then, five teams had to withdraw before the tournament due to positive tests. One of those was unable to be replaced in time, so their opponent got a bye.

Doesn't exactly bode well.

It wasn't perfect but they executed the tournament and delivered live basketball safely. And this is the TBT, a made up tournament that started a few years ago. They don't exactly have the same resources and infrastructure that the NCAA or pro sports league have.

I think we are going to have to accept, players and teams getting shut down for periods of time as a result of positive tests this year. If we have a season, it will be a season like no other.

 

[spider23]

When they finally get a proven vaccine, there is going to be one hell of a long lasting party!

October.
A billion doses, with a b, in 2021
Let's party.
https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/?amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

 

[spiderman]

half our country won't go get the vaccine when it's approved.

 

[AnnapSpider]

half our country won't go get the vaccine when it's approved.

There’s no accounting for stupidity

 

[gospidersgo]

There’s no accounting for stupidity

I don't think it's fair to call those skeptical of taking a rushed vaccine stupid. There's a reason drug companies perform clinical trials for years with thousands of people before they are considered safe for the public.

 

[Eight Legger]

Right, but half of those people who won’t get it think Bill Gates is trying to implant some tracking device in them and that’s why they won’t take it. We have to be the stupidest population in the world.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

I'm not sure how this became the "vaccine" thread. I guess I'm stupid.

We've never had a safe, successful vaccine for a coronavirus. Ever.
I'm not optimistic.

 

[urfan1]

Just saw a short story on this mornings news, an engineer from VT has discovered a chemical that detects the presence of the virus on a surface and currently will destroy the virus in approx 7 hours, he believes he can reduce that time to minutes. I believe science will save us from this virus, the greater news is then we will know better how to confront future strains of the coronavirus.

 

[Eight Legger]

I'm not sure how this became the "vaccine" thread. I guess I'm stupid.

We've never had a safe, successful vaccine for a coronavirus. Ever.
I'm not optimistic.

But we’ve also never had a coronavirus threatening the entire world like this during the most scientifically advanced time ever. Seems to be some good early momentum with several possible vaccines.

 

[spiderman]

I don't know my coronavirus history, but how did the previous ones go away? they just weren't as contagious?

 

[SFspidur]

Yes, SARS was so deadly and struck so fast that it was easy to identify, quarantine, and contact trace. It burned out within months before significant progress could be made on a vaccine.

MERS is still around, but human-to-human transmission is rare (mostly limited to healthcare settings), with camel-to-human being the main transmission method. There have been some vaccine efforts for it, but not a super high priority given the limited market.

SARS and MERS have only generated a few thousand cases each.

The other four coronaviruses that infect humans merely cause common colds, so we just live with them.