So, lots of speculation in various threads about lots of things that will impact how we look as a team - - who will play how much and what position etc. So things like who will be the 5th starter, is Khwan a PG, how good is Solly, how big a role will JG have early (or later), how much might Grant be expected to play, who is his backup etc.
Thought I'd summarize one man's thoughts (i.e mine) on how that all plays out here by summarizing by breakout of the minutes (and how/why I get to where I get) and invite others to comment away (whether calling me an idiot or simply posting their own differing views).
So here goes!
First my minutes by player and by position. Don't get too hung up on the actual positions - - certain positions (like SF and SG) are clearly sort of interchangeable in our system, but even further, positionless basketball is all the rage these days and we played a lot like that last year and I would expect that to continue this year as well. However ascribing minutes to positions help account for where minutes will come from etc. and highlight combinations that might be on the floor more frequently. So, for example, while I expect Khwan to start at PG to start the year, I actually expect that he will play as many (or more) of his minutes not at the point. Also, as discussed below, this is summary form and not expected to be static. I expect JG will play fewer minutes in the first month than he plays in the last month etc. So my thoughts:
JG 24 min. (all at PG)
KF 32 (16 at PG and 16 at 2G)
Nick 30 (24 at 2G and 6 at SF )
Buck 34 (22 at SF and 12 at the 4 (PF))
Solly 26 (all at the 4 )
GG 28 (all at center)
JJ 12 (all at SF)
JMA/Paul/Cayo 14 (12 at C and 2 at PF)
Now some explanations of how I get there:
I think JG does not start right away but still plays solid minutes right away (18-20). His minutes creep up steadily and eventually, I think he starts and his minutes move into the higher 20's. Those minutes over time come at the expense of JJ and whoever might be underperforming a bit.
Khwan starts at PG early but plays less and less there and more and more at the 2. A few have suggested his minutes might be at risk as JG develops (or starts immediately) - - I don't see that as even a remote possibility - - he is going to play somewhere basically all the time.
Nick mans the wings in almost all scenarios. I see his minutes slightly at risk simply because he is a bit more limited athletically/physically than Khwan and Buck. I can see scenarios where we finish games with a lineup that does not include Nick (depends mostly on how good Solly is/isn't and whether we are expecting to get fouled etc.).
Solly - - the biggest X factor. If he is solid both defensively and offensively, he is going to be out there because I think we want and need his size. But he might be the most likely here to get materially less minutes than I project. My projections see him being basically all we hoped for, meaning a really solid defender and rebounder (by our normal standards) and a guy who can also contribute on offense but wont be a centerpiece etc. If he falls short on some of this, I think his role/minutes could be different.
Buck - - He's the horse and he'll be out there unless he has foul trouble or the game is in hand. I think we still play appx. 15 minutes a game with a "small" lineup and Buck technically mans the 4 spot at times.
GG - - He'll be out there for all he can handle. The 28 reflects a belief that he will have some foul trouble here and there and the staff will be a little conservative with him. But he may very well play over 30 in any close games where he isn't in foul trouble.
JJ - - I believe he gets some minutes out of loyalty and he can be a great guy to have when we have injuries and foul trouble, but I think his minutes are at risk if the Top 6 all deliver and we shorten the rotation at times. The 12 min really reflects leftovers and if others deliver, there may be less leftovers!
JMA/PF/Cayo - - these minutes could all go one guy or could get split up with one guy getting C minutes and someone else getting PF minutes. No real idea how this shakes out except I dont see the total minutes here being too far off of the number.
Thought I'd summarize one man's thoughts (i.e mine) on how that all plays out here by summarizing by breakout of the minutes (and how/why I get to where I get) and invite others to comment away (whether calling me an idiot or simply posting their own differing views).
So here goes!
First my minutes by player and by position. Don't get too hung up on the actual positions - - certain positions (like SF and SG) are clearly sort of interchangeable in our system, but even further, positionless basketball is all the rage these days and we played a lot like that last year and I would expect that to continue this year as well. However ascribing minutes to positions help account for where minutes will come from etc. and highlight combinations that might be on the floor more frequently. So, for example, while I expect Khwan to start at PG to start the year, I actually expect that he will play as many (or more) of his minutes not at the point. Also, as discussed below, this is summary form and not expected to be static. I expect JG will play fewer minutes in the first month than he plays in the last month etc. So my thoughts:
JG 24 min. (all at PG)
KF 32 (16 at PG and 16 at 2G)
Nick 30 (24 at 2G and 6 at SF )
Buck 34 (22 at SF and 12 at the 4 (PF))
Solly 26 (all at the 4 )
GG 28 (all at center)
JJ 12 (all at SF)
JMA/Paul/Cayo 14 (12 at C and 2 at PF)
Now some explanations of how I get there:
I think JG does not start right away but still plays solid minutes right away (18-20). His minutes creep up steadily and eventually, I think he starts and his minutes move into the higher 20's. Those minutes over time come at the expense of JJ and whoever might be underperforming a bit.
Khwan starts at PG early but plays less and less there and more and more at the 2. A few have suggested his minutes might be at risk as JG develops (or starts immediately) - - I don't see that as even a remote possibility - - he is going to play somewhere basically all the time.
Nick mans the wings in almost all scenarios. I see his minutes slightly at risk simply because he is a bit more limited athletically/physically than Khwan and Buck. I can see scenarios where we finish games with a lineup that does not include Nick (depends mostly on how good Solly is/isn't and whether we are expecting to get fouled etc.).
Solly - - the biggest X factor. If he is solid both defensively and offensively, he is going to be out there because I think we want and need his size. But he might be the most likely here to get materially less minutes than I project. My projections see him being basically all we hoped for, meaning a really solid defender and rebounder (by our normal standards) and a guy who can also contribute on offense but wont be a centerpiece etc. If he falls short on some of this, I think his role/minutes could be different.
Buck - - He's the horse and he'll be out there unless he has foul trouble or the game is in hand. I think we still play appx. 15 minutes a game with a "small" lineup and Buck technically mans the 4 spot at times.
GG - - He'll be out there for all he can handle. The 28 reflects a belief that he will have some foul trouble here and there and the staff will be a little conservative with him. But he may very well play over 30 in any close games where he isn't in foul trouble.
JJ - - I believe he gets some minutes out of loyalty and he can be a great guy to have when we have injuries and foul trouble, but I think his minutes are at risk if the Top 6 all deliver and we shorten the rotation at times. The 12 min really reflects leftovers and if others deliver, there may be less leftovers!
JMA/PF/Cayo - - these minutes could all go one guy or could get split up with one guy getting C minutes and someone else getting PF minutes. No real idea how this shakes out except I dont see the total minutes here being too far off of the number.
