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Key Games -- NET standings and eventual bubble implications ..

Section9.RowD

Section9.RowD

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Nov 19, 2021
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Monday 1/29

While the team can and should only focus on the games they play, starting new thread for a daily list of games that matter most for us in terms of NET rankings.

Duke at VA Tech 7pm ESPN. - hard for many of us to do but rooting for Duke tonight (sorry SDad). Need it clear that Hokies are 3rd or 4th best team in the Commonwealth and get off the bubble.

NW State at McNeese State - 8pm ESPN+ - Highly unlikely tonight but rooting for NW State and for McNeese to not have a crazy long winning streak going into the Southland tourney.

Houston at Texas - 9pm ESPN. Hope Houston drills them by 20 (which might mean Texas plummets from 41 to 43.
 
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I feel like maybe we should be rooting for McNeese, since they beat vcu. The better they do, the higher vcu's NET remains, I suppose?
 
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Eight Legger said:
I feel like maybe we should be rooting for McNeese, since they beat vcu. The better they do, the higher vcu's NET remains, I suppose?
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yeah not sure- just don't want McNeese to be 29-2 headed into their tourney with a ~60 NET and have any chance of needing to root for Will Wade to sail through his tournament to avoid a bid snatcher.
 
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I like the thread and thanks for creating it but imo I say screw the NET. I think most know how flawed it is and I dont see UR’s going up too much. Seeing votes in AP and guys like Katz showing love in his power rankings show others arent paying attention to NET.
 
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well, so far I have not heard anyone say UR is undeserving because of the NET, only respected ppl like Andy Katz putting UR in his power listings.

Pile wins, let the rest sort itself.
 
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Section9.RowD said:
yeah not sure- just don't want McNeese to be 29-2 headed into their tourney with a ~60 NET and have any chance of needing to root for Will Wade to sail through his tournament to avoid a bid snatcher.
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McNeese has a couple good wins, but most of their schedule is against extremely terrible teams with one of their winning streak wins against :

Mississippi University For WomenW92-23
 
Section9.RowD said:
Monday 1/29

While the team can and should only focus on the games they play, starting new thread for a daily list of games that matter most for us in terms of NET rankings.

Duke at VA Tech 7pm ESPN. - hard for many of us to do but rooting for Duke tonight (sorry SDad). Need it clear that Hokies are 3rd or 4th best team in the Commonwealth and get off the bubble.

NW State at McNeese State - 8pm ESPN+ - Highly unlikely tonight but rooting for NW State and for McNeese to not have a crazy long winning streak going into the Southland tourney.

Houston at Texas - 9pm ESPN. Hope Houston drills them by 20 (which might mean Texas plummets from 41 to 43.
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Duke wins by 10. VA Tech drops from 45 to 50.
McNeese wins by 24. Drops from 61 to 62.
Texas loses by 1. Texas goes from 41 to 40.

Spiders remain at 70.
 
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UR80sfan said:
McNeese has a couple good wins, but most of their schedule is against extremely terrible teams with one of their winning streak wins against :

Mississippi University For WomenW92-23
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yeah - agreed - just don't want any chance of them being 31-2 headed into a Southland championship and losing by 3 points and getting in. Maybe wouldn't happen by not sure.
 
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Tuesday 1/30 -

Busy night - think we might gain a few NET slots and/or see a few bubble players drop if all goes well.

South Carolina (50) at Tennessee (4) - 6:30 SEC Network - SC while 17-3 only has a NET of 50 and 14.5 dogs to Tenn tonight. Go Volunteers for a blow-out.

Marquette (16)at Nova (43) - 7pm FS1 - Sorry TB but have to root for Marquette tonight for the greater good as Nova's bubble status is popping quickly (shh but "on the other hand" hope you have best game of the season and score 30)

Illinois (14) at Ohio State (68) - 7pm Peacock Ohio State with a Net of 68 could fall behind of if the Illini win by 10.

GW at Dayton - 7pm ESPN+ - Think better for us that Dayton takes care of business and beats the 12.5 spread.

Syracuse (78) at BC (90) - 7pm ACC network - BC 4.5 favorite and at 90 current NET small chance they could get up to 75 if they have some wins in Feb to take our loss to Q1. Go Eagles.

Iowa (56) at Indiana (90) - BT - 7pm. Guess we root for Iowa since we owe them one.

VCU (89) at Bonne (72)- 7 CBSSN - Forgetting us not being able to root for the Lambs - interesting setup. I think VCU has a better chance of getting to a Net of 75 than Bonne has of maintaining it by the end of the season but would love VCU to fall 3 games behind in the A10. Go Bonne.

Oklahoma (33) at Kansas State (73) - ESPN+ - 8pm - go Sooners. Kansas State likely passes us in NET with a win.

SLU vs LC (121) 8pm ESPN - Sister Jean needs to deliver and avoid any chance of our LC win eventually becoming Q3.

Miss State (37) vs. Ole Miss (56) - 8:30 PM - SECN - Suspect both teams will get in unless Chris Beard's team falls apart.

Louisville at Clemson (28) - 9pm ACC Clemson's NET is so high but some speculation that are not a lock .. Go Cardinal.

Miami (64) at NC State (84) - Go Hurricanes. Don't see us getting past Miami and would rather NC State get the home loss.

Seton Hall (74) at Depaul - Hall favored by 10.5 and I'm sure will win but single digits and I doubt they pass us with Depaul at 300. Crazy.
 
Seton Hall winning by 32 and still have their starters in the game lol. Thats a coach who has read up on the NET criteria. Beat up on the cupcakes as much as possible. .
 
Here’s how we lose Saturday: King and Quinn get in early foul trouble, we don’t guard Bamisile or Shulga, we settle for bad threes, we have more than 16 turnovers. vcu has a bad offense and a worse defense. But they make up for that by also being incredibly soft.
 
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Spiders stick at 70 and get passed by Bonne now at 69 .. other updates below in RED. As noted in the other thread, Seton Hall had the largest movement 74 to 64 by crushing 300 NET Depaul at Depaul by 33.

Section9.RowD said:
Tuesday 1/30 -

Busy night - think we might gain a few NET slots and/or see a few bubble players drop if all goes well.

South Carolina (50) at Tennessee (4) - 6:30 SEC Network - SC while 17-3 only has a NET of 50 and 14.5 dogs to Tenn tonight. Go Volunteers for a blow-out. South Carolina wins and moves from 49 to 39 and after the recent Kentucky win may start showing up as Lock for tourney soon.

Marquette (16) at Nova (43) - 7pm FS1 - Sorry TB but have to root for Marquette tonight for the greater good as Nova's bubble status is popping quickly (shh but "on the other hand" hope you have best game of the season and score 30). Nova drops to 49 and is fading fast in the Big east.

Illinois (14) at Ohio State (68) - 7pm Peacock Ohio State with a Net of 68 could fall behind of if the Illini win by 10. Illini wins by 12 and Ohio State drops to 73,

GW at Dayton - 7pm ESPN+ - Think better for us that Dayton takes care of business and beats the 12.5 spread. Dayton crushes GW and moves from 19 to 17.

Syracuse (78) at BC (90) - 7pm ACC network - BC 4.5 favorite and at 90 current NET small chance they could get up to 75 if they have some wins in Feb to take our loss to Q1. Go Eagles. BC wins a close on - only moves up 1 to 89. Cuse also moves up one from 78 to 77. Smh.

Iowa (56) at Indiana (90) - BT - 7pm. Guess we root for Iowa since we owe them one. Hoosiers win at home by 6. moves up from 96 to 93. Iowa drops from 56 to 60.

VCU (89) at Bonne (72)- 7 CBSSN - Forgetting us not being able to root for the Lambs - interesting setup. I think VCU has a better chance of getting to a Net of 75 than Bonne has of maintaining it by the end of the season but would love VCU to fall 3 games behind in the A10. Go Bonne. VCU collapses in second half. Bonne moves from 72 to 69. VCU drops from 89 to 92.

Oklahoma (33) at Kansas State (73) - ESPN+ - 8pm - go Sooners. Kansas State likely passes us in NET with a win. Sooners crush KS by 20. KS drops from 73 to 82.

SLU vs LC (121) 8pm ESPN - Sister Jean needs to deliver and avoid any chance of our LC win eventually becoming Q3. LC wins by 15. Remains at 121 given how made SLU is.

Miss State (37) vs. Ole Miss (56) - 8:30 PM - SECN - Suspect both teams will get in unless Chris Beard's team falls apart. Ole Miss wins. Moves from 57 to 53.

Louisville at Clemson (28) - 9pm ACC Clemson's NET is so high but some speculation that are not a lock .. Go Cardinal. Clemson wins by 6 but drops from 28 to 34.

Miami (64) at NC State (84) - Go Hurricanes. Don't see us getting past Miami and would rather NC State get the home loss. NC State wins by 6 at home. Miami drops from 61 to 61. NC State moves from 84 to 80.

Seton Hall (74) at Depaul - Hall favored by 10.5 and I'm sure will win but single digits and I doubt they pass us with Depaul at 300. Crazy. Seton Hall does what net requires and wins by 33. Up from 74 to 64.
Click to expand...
 
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fatherspider said:
Seton Hall winning by 32 and still have their starters in the game lol. Thats a coach who has read up on the NET criteria. Beat up on the cupcakes as much as possible. .
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and that's why this NET experiment should be scrapped. wins and losses matter. wins against good teams matter more. offensive and defensive efficiencies do not.
 
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Wednesday 1/31 - While our focus is on what hopefully will be a dominant game in Rose Hill, a number of other relevant games tonight. Lots of road times we should be rooting for tonight.

Notre Dame at Virginia (47) - 7pm - ESPN2 - Will be shocked if UVA doesn't wallop the Irish after a 22 point loss in December but any loss or even a close game would further cause bubble doubts.

Northwestern (59) at Purdue - 6:30 PM BTN - 13.5 line and unless Purdue wins by 25 don't expect NW to drop much.

Alabama at UGA (78) - 6:30 PM - SECN - A solid Alabama win would be nice to push back an improving UGA.

St Johns (35) at Xavier (52) - 6:30 PM FS1 - Best for the Pitino gang to take Xavier to 10-11. Xavier favored by 1.5.

Baylor at UCF (72.) 7pm ESPN+ - Need to avoid UCF getting another Q1 win since they beat KS earlier this season.

Wake Forest (44) at Pittsburgh (65) - 7pm ESPN+ Line is Pitt -1.5. A nice Wake double digit win might move Pitt behind us if all goes well tonight for the Spiders.

Wich State (148) at Tulsa - Our loss could still become Q3 if Wich State has a strong last 6 weeks. Go Shockers.

GMU (83) at St. Joes (86) - Given our 2 games against GMU, hoping GMU has won tonight and get closer to the magical 75 that might give us 1 more Quad 1 game

Florida (41) at . Kentucky - 8pm ESPN. Wildcats favored by 5.5. Looking like our Q1 FL loss will stay Q1 unless Gators collapse.

Rice vs. Memphis (68) - 8pm ESPN+ - Expect Memphis to stop the bleeding today but they are finding the way to be close too of off the bubble after being 10th ranked only a few weeks ago.

UNI (101) vs. Bradley (63) - 8pm CBSSNBowen Born one of the key reasons we lost was out sick for the Drake game on Saturday - Hopefully he is back and would be real nice for UNI to find a way to pull this one out.

UAB at North Texas (71) - 9pm ESPNU - UAB has been playing well lately and hopefully they can take down North Texas that is favored by 6.5.
 
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spiderman said:
and that's why this NET experiment should be scrapped. wins and losses matter. wins against good teams matter more. offensive and defensive efficiencies do not.
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The concept of NET is good, but it certainly needs tweaking. Like I said before, winning by 33 is NOT better than winning by 15 or 20. However, winning by 15 or 20 IS better than winning by 1. There needs to be a cap to how much extra credit you get.
 
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mr.spider,
current NET calculations don't use margin of victory at all, so no way to cap it at 15 or 20.
but by using offensive and defensive efficiency, they do clearly benefit teams who continue to score late in blowouts and continue to defend. it rewards playing your best players until the end and running up the score.
you should never clear your bench and punishes teams that do. in effect it rewards bad sportsmanship.
 
spiderman said:
mr.spider,
current NET calculations don't use margin of victory at all, so no way to cap it at 15 or 20.
but by using offensive and defensive efficiency, they do clearly benefit teams who continue to score late in blowouts and continue to defend. it rewards playing your best players until the end and running up the score.
you should never clear your bench and punishes teams that do. in effect it rewards bad sportsmanship.
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Yes. We've been thru that before. It's actually efficiency not margin to be technical. We have used the term margin to make it easier to discuss. But you are correct, margin is only implicitly included thru efficiency ratings. So let's cap the f****** efficiency ratings after a certain point. The point is it should be a factor but appears to be too much of one with no limits.
 
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agreed it's too much of a factor. I just don't see how you can cap efficiency. it's a statistical calc of scoring per possession over the entire year.
 
spiderman said:
agreed it's too much of a factor. I just don't see how you can cap efficiency. it's a statistical calc of scoring per possession over the entire year.
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Well, you could weight it less in your calculations. You would still gain some credit by keeping starters in late if you did it this way.

Or you could have a MAX efficiency score per game.

Or you could tier it. As your efficiency is closer to MAX at the end of a game, it begins counting less.
 
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mr.spider said:
The concept of NET is good, but it certainly needs tweaking. Like I said before, winning by 33 is NOT better than winning by 15 or 20. However, winning by 15 or 20 IS better than winning by 1. There needs to be a cap to how much extra credit you get.
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It should be a very minor credit. It seems like its the most important factor with this shitty system. Name another sport or league where winning by 1 doesnt count as much as winning by 10-15. Trying to figure out the talent/quality of teams beyond win/losses and SOS is ridiculous.
The Bonnies have a higher NET than Richmond?? Holy F-ed up Batman!!
Bonnies 2-5 Q 1+2 / UR 6-4
2 losses against Q 4 / UR 0 losses
Its comical
I hope CM is telling the boys to have no mercy and to never let up.
 
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Section9.RowD said:
Spiders stick at 70 and get passed by Bonne now at 69 .. other updates below in RED. As noted in the other thread, Seton Hall had the largest movement 74 to 64 by crushing 300 NET Depaul at Depaul by 33.
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How is Depaul even 300 lol they are 3-18. I feel sorry for their players. Each BE team is going to be aware of this obvious NET glitch and pound them into oblivion every game.

I know many say that NET is only a tool and not the end all, and that might be true for teams in bubble range on NET but for the Spiders, having a NET of 70 gives them no margin for error. If say, Spiders were around 50 then they could maybe survive a loss. At 70 it seems any loss would be devastating considering victories, even against Top 15 teams, dont bring them up.
 
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fatherspider said:
It should be a very minor credit. It seems like its the most important factor with this shitty system. Name another sport or league where winning by 1 doesnt count as much as winning by 10-15. Trying to figure out the talent/quality of teams beyond win/losses and SOS is ridiculous.
The Bonnies have a higher NET than Richmond?? Holy F-ed up Batman!!
Bonnies 2-5 Q 1+2 / UR 6-4
2 losses against Q 4 / UR 0 losses
Its comical
I hope CM is telling the boys to have no mercy and to never let up.
Click to expand...
Dude. I agree it's factored too much. BUT you need a way to differentiate deeper than Wins and Losses when you have 362 teams who don't all play each other. Winning by 1 counts the same in the standings as winning by 15, but it CANNOT count the same in a ranking system. If you don't use something like margin (again, simplifying the actual efficiency numbers), beyond Wins & Losses, it will ONLY be a battle of who can schedule the best teams. In that case, we are shit out of luck in many cases. Using something other than schedule as the additional variable to wins and losses actually evens the field a bit. Now, the way you go about it and how much you apply the other variables is up for debate. As I've stated, I believe the margins (efficiencies) are weighted too high especially at the wider margins. The other thing which I mentioned before that is stupid about NET is to break it into tiers or Quads. There is NOTHING significantly better about beating the 75th ranked team vs the 76th ranked team, but the system makes some ridiculous distinction between them calling one a Quad 1 and the other a Quad 2.
 
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fatherspider said:
Trying to figure out the talent/quality of teams beyond win/losses and SOS is ridiculous.
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But how do you figure out SOS? You need more than just wins and losses, and that's exactly what NET is trying to do.

I certainly agree the NET appears to need some changes, but if this was easy it would have been done long ago.
 
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fatherspider said:
It should be a very minor credit. It seems like its the most important factor with this shitty system. Name another sport or league where winning by 1 doesnt count as much as winning by 10-15. Trying to figure out the talent/quality of teams beyond win/losses and SOS is ridiculous.
The Bonnies have a higher NET than Richmond?? Holy F-ed up Batman!!
Bonnies 2-5 Q 1+2 / UR 6-4
2 losses against Q 4 / UR 0 losses
Its comical
I hope CM is telling the boys to have no mercy and to never let up.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this one in particular is just a joke. We beat them. They have a ton more bad losses than we do, but because they killed 6 bad teams, NET thinks they are great.
 
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SFspidur said:
But how do you figure out SOS? You need more than just wins and losses, and that's exactly what NET is trying to do.
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I don't think it needs more than wins and losses. I actually had no problem with the RPI.

did it rank perfectly? no. but it doesn't need to. NET and RPI are just tools to capture all of the teams that should be considered for at-large bids. then a committee more looks in depth.

I'd rather have a system that doesn't promote running up a score though.
 
spiderman said:
I don't think it needs more than wins and losses. I actually had no problem with the RPI.

did it rank perfectly? no. but it doesn't need to. NET and RPI are just tools to capture all of the teams that should be considered for at-large bids. then a committee more looks in depth.

I'd rather have a system that doesn't promote running up a score though.
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If they are both just tools, and they are, why does the NET irk you so much? It's just an attempt at refining RPI, which was solely based on scheduling. The NET, like RPI did, also needs refinement from its current state.

The committee can use both, one, or none at their will.
 
SFspidur said:
But how do you figure out SOS? You need more than just wins and losses, and that's exactly what NET is trying to do.

I certainly agree the NET appears to need some changes, but if this was easy it would have been done long ago.
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SOS should be based on W/L against like teams just as they have done it for many yesrs. Use a few months worth of results, get a ranking then compare.
Nothing is perfect but now they are trying to make it perfect and turning it into nonsense. Way too many horrible rankings compared to actual W/L resume. I think we can go down the list and find 10-15 ridiculous rankings.
 
Eight Legger said:
Yeah, this one in particular is just a joke. We beat them. They have a ton more bad losses than we do, but because they killed 6 bad teams, NET thinks they are great.
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Maybe, there needs to be a bit of transitive property added. If 2 teams end up ranked "incorrectly" based on head to head after all other calculations are complete, a minor adjustment could be made to each team's rank accordingly. This would not necessarily mean they would flip-flop in rank (which would piss you guys off), but maybe they become closer together in rank. This would become very circular if you did this for more than one iteration. And meaningless if you did this recursively.

Not endorsing this, just throwing it out there.
 
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