Game scenarios

[SpiderDad75]

My students are testing today so I have free time to ponder ideas 😀. I just wanted to get your thoughts on game related scenarios, If SLU wins vs VCU, we beat them, and win out putting us at 8-3...does this get us in the top 2 of Conf and the 2 seed? I guess if the Bonnies win out they are the #1 seed?? But then Davidson is sitting there with basically the same record, but we beat them so does that give us a leg up? Any way for us to steal the 1 seed? I haven’t looked at other match ups but wanted to hear from you guys. 🕷🏀

 

[Eight Legger]

I hadn't run the numbers before, but if we go 8-3, we would finish percentage wise ahead of VCU unless they win their last two games. Them finishing 10-4 gives them a71% winning percentage, while we would be at 72%. In that case in your scenario, we would technically be second but I suspect the league would vote it as a tie and give them the tiebreaker. But not sure.

 

[SpiderDad75]

I hadn't run the numbers before, but if we go 8-3, we would finish percentage wise ahead of VCU unless they win their last two games. Them finishing 10-4 gives them a71% winning irreverent, while we would be at 72%. In that case in your scenario, we would technically be second but I suspect the league would vote it as a tie and give them three tiebreaker. But not sure.

Gotcha...appreciate the feedback. I guess we just need to win out and make the Championship game. How do you feel if we win out but lose in the ship, do we get a bid then? That may be a tougher one to answer, anyway thanks, and Go Spiders!

 

[Ferrum Spider]

Gotcha...appreciate the feedback. I guess we just need to win out and make the Championship game. How do you feel if we win out but lose in the ship, do we get a bid then? That may be a tougher one to answer, anyway thanks, and Go Spiders!

We dance if we make it all the way to the finals without a loss.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

We dance if we make it all the way to the finals without a loss.

I agree with this.

Not because our resume is bulletproof, but because somebody has to be in, and the bubble is pretty small and pock-marked with teams that haven't done jack squat outside of compete in games against other good teams from their own good conference.

 

[SpiderDad75]

I agree with this.

Not because our resume is bulletproof, but because somebody has to be in, and the bubble is pretty small and pock-marked with teams that haven't done jack squat outside of compete in games against other good teams from their own good conference.

That makes sense for sure. We control our destiny IF we win. Not to start a debate or to start piling up on the staff, but since I'm new here as far as following the A-10 closely...what have we looked like in the A-10 tourney under Coach Mooney?

 

[Eight Legger]

Best case at the end of the regular season we are 4-2 in Q1 games. There are only seven teams in the nation with that winning percentage or better in at least six Q1 games. If we make it to the final, there's a decent chance we add another Q1 win. That would be really tough to overlook.

 

[GKiller]

That makes sense for sure. We control our destiny IF we win. Not to start a debate or to start piling up on the staff, but since I'm new here as far as following the A-10 closely...what have we looked like in the A-10 tourney under Coach Mooney?

LOL that's ok u are definitely new here. Mooney in the A10 tourney? Don't look it's pretty bad. In 16 years between the reg season title and A10 tourney title he's won 1. So he's 1-31. I don't know his record in A10 tourney but it's most certainly worse than reg season overall. Especially since 2011 it has to be really bad. And the problem is all his wins since then have been against weak teams.

But of course we're rooting hard for this year to finally be different.

I do see a path to at large with winning out going to finals. I mean there is an extra bid out there. No Ivy league auto. This year was best chance possible.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Gotcha...thanks! My family grew up following the UNC and the ACC. Obviously they are Power 5 and myself being a BBall junkie & former school coach I really like to follow all NCAA teams..more so since I've gotten older. The Q1 games and the NET etc...seems to be a bigger deal to Mid-Major type teams and so I guess I better do some more reading on how that all plays a factor 😀 I must confess however that I am a History teacher not a Math teacher 😂 so I'll let you guys that are a lot smarter mathematically handle that. Thanks for the input!

 

[SFspidur]

I hadn't run the numbers before, but if we go 8-3, we would finish percentage wise ahead of VCU unless they win their last two games. Them finishing 10-4 gives them a71% winning irreverent, while we would be at 72%. In that case in your scenario, we would technically be second but I suspect the league would vote it as a tie and give them three tiebreaker. But not sure.

8–3 (.727) is indisputably a better winning percentage than 10–4 (.714)...there's no way they would just "give" it to VCU, even if the conference does hate us.

 

[Eight Legger]

I mean I think so too, but I'm wondering if they will do it on percentage or do it in baseball terms, for example. In theory, VCU would be two games up in the win column and only one game down in the loss column, so half a game ahead of us if you go in those terms.

 

[RichmondNative]

8–3 (.727) is indisputably a better winning percentage than 10–4 (.714)...there's no way they would just "give" it to VCU, even if the conference does hate us.

All the A10 has to do is change the seeding rules. Seems like there have been lots of changes of late.....

 

[urmite]

LOL that's ok u are definitely new here. Mooney in the A10 tourney? Don't look it's pretty bad. In 16 years between the reg season title and A10 tourney title he's won 1. So he's 1-31. I don't know his record in A10 tourney but it's most certainly worse than reg season overall. Especially since 2011 it has to be really bad. And the problem is all his wins since then have been against weak teams.

But of course we're rooting hard for this year to finally be different.

I do see a path to at large with winning out going to finals. I mean there is an extra bid out there. No Ivy league auto. This year was best chance possible.

I am going to guess since summer of 2011 5-8 with no more than 1 win any tournament...

 

[SFspidur]

Yep, 5–8, and the highest seed we've beaten over that time was a 6-seed GW team, barely.

2012: #10 UR lost to #7 La Salle
2013: #8 UR lost to #9 Charlotte in the Mooney Meltdown
2014: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, blown out by #2 VCU
2015: #4 UR with the double bye lost to #5 VCU
2016: #9 UR beat #8 Fordham, lost to #1 Dayton
2017: #3 UR with the double bye squeaked by #6 GW, lost to #2 VCU
2018: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, lost to #2 Bona
2019: #11 UR squeaked by #14 Fordham, lost to #6 SLU

 

[GKiller]

Yep, 5–8, and the highest seed we've beaten over that time was a 6-seed GW team, barely.

2012: #10 UR lost to #7 La Salle
2013: #8 UR lost to #9 Charlotte in the Mooney Meltdown
2014: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, blown out by #2 VCU
2015: #4 UR with the double bye lost to #5 VCU
2016: #9 UR beat #8 Fordham, lost to #1 Dayton
2017: #3 UR with the double bye squeaked by #6 GW, lost to #2 VCU
2018: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, lost to #2 Bona
2019: #11 UR squeaked by #14 Fordham, lost to #6 SLU

Feeling good SpiderDad75?

 

[ncspiderfan]

My students are testing today so I have free time to ponder ideas 😀. I just wanted to get your thoughts on game related scenarios, If SLU wins vs VCU, we beat them, and win out putting us at 8-3...does this get us in the top 2 of Conf and the 2 seed? I guess if the Bonnies win out they are the #1 seed?? But then Davidson is sitting there with basically the same record, but we beat them so does that give us a leg up? Any way for us to steal the 1 seed? I haven’t looked at other match ups but wanted to hear from you guys. 🕷🏀

Here are a few examples of teams winning percentages depending on how their remaining games go. In some cases I did not include all remaining games (such as ours since we must win out or not matter pretty much for a top 4 finish without a lot of help). I think I got the math right, but might be off.

9-3 SBU - Davidson, GW, Dayton 3-0 80% 2-1 73.3.%, 1-2 67.7%
9-3 VCU - SLU, Davidson 2-0 78.6%, 1-1 71.4%
5-3 UR - UMass, SLU, SJU 3-0 72.7% 2-1 63.6
6-3 Davidson - SBU, VCU 2-0 72.7%, 1-1 63.6
4-3 SLU - VCU, UR, UMass 3-0 70%
6-2 UMass - UR, SLU 2-0 80% 1-1 70%

Might give you teams to pull for or against the rest of the way.

 

[fatherspider]

We dance if we make it all the way to the finals without a loss.

Nice thought but have u been watching us play lately? Defense is bad.

 

[SinsemillaSpider]

Oh man. I had forgotten about that Charlotte loss. The "Mooney Meltdown". That one almost had me in tears...

 

[SpiderDad75]

Feeling good SpiderDad75?

Oh, I'm always good 😀 I appreciate the info...I try to always remain positive esp when it comes to sports. So many great things happen that aren't expected..good for one team bad for the other. This season isn't how I envisioned it but none the less its what we got. I'm still happy with Dji's decision. Dji chose to come here because of the academics, the relationship he built with the staff in a short turnaround from Wake, the new facilities and the potential to be a really good player here and in the A-10. One thing I would like to say is Dji is different at almost 6'6...played Point guard his whole life in HS and grassroots. He has been asked to learn multiple positions 1-3 this season (which is why a lot of schools loved him..his versatility) and couple that with his wrist injury, I think that is why we haven't seen much of him(a lot to take in for an young 18yr Fr). I think the injury set him back more than we thought (didn't mean to go on a tangent😀) but at the end of the day...we are extremely proud and excited to be a part of the Richmond family. Message boards will be message boards but thanks again for the info everyone! Lets finish these 3 reg season games off and make a run!
🕷🏀

 

[Eight Legger]

Yep, 5–8, and the highest seed we've beaten over that time was a 6-seed GW team, barely.

2012: #10 UR lost to #7 La Salle
2013: #8 UR lost to #9 Charlotte in the Mooney Meltdown
2014: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, blown out by #2 VCU
2015: #4 UR with the double bye lost to #5 VCU
2016: #9 UR beat #8 Fordham, lost to #1 Dayton
2017: #3 UR with the double bye squeaked by #6 GW, lost to #2 VCU
2018: #7 UR beat #10 Duquesne, lost to #2 Bona
2019: #11 UR squeaked by #14 Fordham, lost to #6 SLU

Hey, look on the bright side – we only lost a game we were supposed to win twice in all those years!

 

[SpiderDad75]

Here are a few examples of teams winning percentages depending on how their remaining games go. In some cases I did not include all remaining games (such as ours since we must win out or not matter pretty much for a top 4 finish without a lot of help). I think I got the math right, but might be off.

9-3 SBU - Davidson, GW, Dayton 3-0 80% 2-1 73.3.%, 1-2 67.7%
9-3 VCU - SLU, Davidson 2-0 78.6%, 1-1 71.4%
5-3 UR - UMass, SLU, SJU 3-0 72.7% 2-1 63.6
6-3 Davidson - SBU, VCU 2-0 72.7%, 1-1 63.6
4-3 SLU - VCU, UR, UMass 3-0 70%
6-2 UMass - UR, SLU 2-0 80% 1-1 70%

Might give you teams to pull for or against the rest of the way.

This is great...Thank you...no way this old SS teacher would have been able to figure that out... 😀✊

 

[urmite]

Here are a few examples of teams winning percentages depending on how their remaining games go. In some cases I did not include all remaining games (such as ours since we must win out or not matter pretty much for a top 4 finish without a lot of help). I think I got the math right, but might be off.

9-3 SBU - Davidson, GW, Dayton 3-0 80% 2-1 73.3.%, 1-2 67.7%
9-3 VCU - SLU, Davidson 2-0 78.6%, 1-1 71.4%
5-3 UR - UMass, SLU, SJU 3-0 72.7% 2-1 63.6
6-3 Davidson - SBU, VCU 2-0 72.7%, 1-1 63.6
4-3 SLU - VCU, UR, UMass 3-0 70%
6-2 UMass - UR, SLU 2-0 80% 1-1 70%

Might give you teams to pull for or against the rest of the way.

I still think a lot of these teams will end up with 4 conference losses, which gives us a pretty good chance at winning the tiebreaker for third...

 

[ur2K]

This is always a good resource at this time of year - https://www.basketballforum.com/threads/if-the-a10-tournament-started-today-2021-edition.691567/

 

[Crimson Spider]

So if:
- we go 3-0
- SBU loses to Davidson and Dayton
- VCU loses once to either StL or Davidson

Can’t be, but does that scenario actually put us first?

Unlikely to all happen but will provide a lot of rooting interest. 3 of those 6 in next 30 hours.

 

[SFspidur]

Yes, amazingly enough, there is still a path to the top seed.

 

[urmite]

I see tonight as more critical than at SLU.
I think a loss tonight means we can't catch either UMass or VCU...

So...Let's not lose!

 

[urmite]

Here is my idea of a cheat sheet

Team 0/1/2/3 Wins

SBU	0.600	0.667	0.733	0.800
UM	0.600	0.700	0.800
VCU	0.643	0.714	0.786
UR	0.455	0.545	0.636	0.727
DC	0.545	0.636	0.727
SLU	0.400	0.500	0.600	0.700
UD	0.500	0.563	0.625
GW	0.375	0.500	0.625
DU	0.429	0.500	0.571
GMU	0.429	0.500	0.571
URI	0.412	0.471
Las	0.294	0.353	0.412
SJU	0.083	0.167	0.250
FU	0.154

 

[urmite]

 

[spiderman]

Oh, I'm always good 😀 I appreciate the info...I try to always remain positive esp when it comes to sports. So many great things happen that aren't expected..good for one team bad for the other. This season isn't how I envisioned it but none the less its what we got. I'm still happy with Dji's decision. Dji chose to come here because of the academics, the relationship he built with the staff in a short turnaround from Wake, the new facilities and the potential to be a really good player here and in the A-10. One thing I would like to say is Dji is different at almost 6'6...played Point guard his whole life in HS and grassroots. He has been asked to learn multiple positions 1-3 this season (which is why a lot of schools loved him..his versatility) and couple that with his wrist injury, I think that is why we haven't seen much of him(a lot to take in for an young 18yr Fr). I think the injury set him back more than we thought (didn't mean to go on a tangent😀) but at the end of the day...we are extremely proud and excited to be a part of the Richmond family. Message boards will be message boards but thanks again for the info everyone! Lets finish these 3 reg season games off and make a run!
🕷🏀

great stuff, Dad.
Dji looked really good in that D3 run. he's very skilled and a very good athlete. his time will come.
this is a redshirt year. he comes back next year almost surely in the rotation with a real chance for a lot of minutes. Mooney loves versatility. a guy with PG skills and wing size is is a tremendous asset.

 

[SpiderDad75]

great stuff, Dad.
Dji looked really good in that D3 run. he's very skilled and a very good athlete. his time will come.
this is a redshirt year. he comes back next year almost surely in the rotation with a real chance for a lot of minutes. Mooney loves versatility. a guy with PG skills and wing size is is a tremendous asset.

Appreciate that...we've been here before as this nothing new to us. Dji has worked extremely hard at every level. We played behind/with Coby White for 2 years at GFS. A skinny kid at 5'9 as Freshman but by end of Soph. yr he had grown to 6'4 and now right at 6'6. That growth helped him go from a role player basically his whole grass roots life to getting the keys from our G. Road Coach David West as the starting PG on a team that sent 11 guys D1. & dominated the Adidas circuit for 4 years. Super exciting to see that growth from any player let alone your own. As with any 18 yr old who has played a lot minutes then have to sit and learn its tough, its tough as a parent but from being around high level ball a long time I get it. I just enjoy being able to talk a little Richmond basketball...I was extremely close with our HS family and grassroots family, so I enjoy good basketball talk. He's my son I am super biased 😀 but I understand basketball and all that go with it at a high level. One down, two to go! Let's go smack SLU!! 🕷🏀

 

[Gallipoli]

The Spider's back court will be set for the next 4 years.