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UR v. Coastal Discussion

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Stonewall D

Graduate Assistant
Dec 18, 2008
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At home
Sagarin rates Coastal at 96th, while it ranks UR at 133. Its predictor index shows a rating of 61.47 + 2.44 (for the home team) = 63.91. UR's predictor score is 51.53. The difference is 12.38 points, which is Sagarin's predicted margin by which Coastal will win the game. UR's rating has been hurt by its losses to Maine and JMU. This will be a tough game.

Sagarin Ratings
 
If you look at Coastal's schedule, they really played only two good teams all year (NC A&T and Liberty) and both of those games were one-point games, which they split.

So that alone makes me feel like we have more talent and a better team. That said, they are a solid team, and we've shown an ability to make some dumb mistakes and give our opponents pretty favorable situations. If we limit our turnovers to one or none, I think we win this game by 10 points. If we turn it over 2 or more times, we probably lose or have to score 35+ to win (which we are quite capable of doing).

I think this will be a high-scoring affair anyway, because it sounds as if they have a pretty balanced passing/rushing attack. The final will probably be something like 32-28 one way or the other. We're much more battle-tested than Coastal, and that should play to our advantage.
 
Definitely agree that we're the more battle-tested team. And with our offense clicking now with balanced attack, know we'll be able to score. Key is limiting our turnovers and having a great defensive game plan. If we can control the D line and make them turn it over, we've got a great shot at a W.
 
I am concerned about our tendency to place DB's to far off from opponent's WR's. Any team worth its salt will be able to pick that apart all day long.
 
The CAA needs three wins this Saturday. I was surprised to see JMU lose at home. For Coastal there were only two tough teams in the Big South and the OOCS was weak, Liberty who beat Coastal in a low scoring game, so I think it's very possible we can, the 12+ points is a gift. Liberty seemed to cope with JMU's speed better than we did, is Coastal relying on speed as well?

Golf, Beach and Spider football, Can life get any better.
 
Gosh I hope we can beat a Canadian cross bred for cold weather chicken on verge of extinction dressed in teal.
 
really don't think their conference or their schedule will mean a whole lot, they are a good team, will be at home and will be gunning for us just as liberty this season and garner webb last season. they want to make a statement and they will want it, we had better want it real bad.
 
3 Coastal coaches were at UR Morgan St. game . Left right after Q3. I still think we have a lot of plays in the playbook that we haven't shown this year. NO Turnovers is key! RS seniors will be playing with heavy hearts. Hopefully Kurt can provide some inspiration from above. I think they may be wearing something on their helmets in NCAA allows. Should be a great game, Go Spiders!
 
I wondered if the 2-point conversion we went for vs. Morgan State was specifically designed to give Coastal something else to scheme for. It might not have been, but why else go for two there in a game that already looked like a blowout?
 
when we don't turn it over or win the turnover battle, we are pretty darn good but if the other way, we can lay some smelly eggs. you are right devil, the key stat for us.....
 
Forget about their league and Sagarin rating. Being at home and having 2 weeks to rest , heal , plan and prepare for us makes this a VERY DIFFICULT and dangerous game for the Spiders. We will have to play virtually mistake free ball to get the win on the road. . I just hope our Coaches have a great offensive and defensive game plan in place and that our heads are screwed on right. Go Spides !!
 
Eight, I heard that MSU was really chirping at us during warm-up and before kickoff and Danny told the team to send them a message. No way no how. So he went for two after second TD. I like it.
 
We have gone for the 2 point conversion early in several games this season, at least three that I can recall.
 
Stonewall stated, "I am concerned about our tendency to place DB's to far
off from opponent's WR's. Any team worth its salt will be able to pick
that apart all day long."

And I agree with this. It hurt us at Maine, got burned badly by JMU, W&M first half, and even MSU had some success. I just don't get giving up pretty much free passes for about 7 yards. I'd love to see the pass defense tightened up & see more "man" coverage.
 
I dont think we showed too much against Morgan. To me it looked like we were vanilla on O and D. We will open up the playbook if need be. The key is turnovers. If we stay clean, I like our chances. What is Coastal' s strength on D? Are they better at stopping stopping run or pass? Do they have the players to stop Fisher?
 
Bob Black made the same point during the game. Rocco wanted to make a point to Morgan- this is what you get when you try to intimidate us.
 
By the way, Bill Durkin, former UR OL coach under Dave Clawson, is in his first year coaching running backs at Coastal. He spent 11 total years at Richmond but has been gone since 2008 spending 2 years at Hofstra followed by a reunion with Clawson at BG until he left for Wake.
 
interesting, Durkin always seemed like a good guy. I always heard the kids loved him.
 
I really could care less how many CAA wins occur on Saturday, as long as they lodge at least one win and that is our game. Style points in the playoffs don't carry over from year to year. The CAA got 4 in this year based on there performance on the field this year, not what happened last year.
 
You guys are correct that if your DBs play with a big cushion that CCU will pick you apart. We had two teams do that and we threw for 750+yards, and I think 3 TDs and 1 INT.
 
Think we are one cornerback short to play man press. Hate the cushion but after season long observation, too short of talent to do otherwise. Morgan State missed two deep passes ,at least, with open receivers and completed one with 2 defenders in perfect position to intercept or knock down.
 
From their web site and the Liberty Box Score:

- CCU had a 13 game home winning streak that was broken by Liberty
- They usually win when they rush for more than 200 yards in a game. They average 216 yds rushing per game but Liberty held them to 141 yds
- Average 267 yds passing per game but only had 171 yds against Liberty.
- They are + 2 in turnovers
- They had 26 sacks going into the Liberty game but the boxscore didn't list sacks for the Liberty game.
- Liberty dominated Time of Possession 36:53 to 23:07.

Bottom line i:
1. Watch and understand the Liberty game film because whatever they did worked.
2. Keep the ball away from them.
3. Don't turn it over.
4. Stop the run.

Do those 4 things and we can beat anyone!
 
I'd guess most teams win when they rush for 200 yards. If it is raining all game, that will probably hurt us more than it hurts them, since we really like to throw.
 
don't agree 8 leg . coastal is a very undersized defense....not sure if JG will be healthy ;he was not today...would be a 2 big backs approach on a wet field. I like our chances.
 
Most teams have the ball more than we do. Our offense is very very fast paced most of the time. On the year TOP is: 28:48 vs 31:09 in favor of the other team.

Once we hit our stride, the offense will move at a ridiculous pace.
 
Against Liberty, the following comparisons really jump out...
Net Rushing Yards: UR: 173, CCU 141;
Net Passing Yards: UR: 325, CCU 171,
Total Yards: UR: 498, CCU 312;
Time of Poss: UR: 35:15, CCU: 23:07;
Turnovers: UR: 0, CCU: 0

Score against LU: UR 46, CCU 14

As mentioned, it seems that UR would want to control time of possession, like LU did against Coastal. It also appears that UR will need to control the run. Liberty held Coastal to below its total averages in each offensive category. One must also note that UR had NO turnovers against Liberty. UR lost 35 total turnovers this year, while Coastal lost 16. Turnovers have been our Achilles heal this year.
 
Agree TOs are a key. Worth noting that 17 of those 35 TOs were in just three games, UVA, Maine, and JMU, all losses. When we don't turn it over, we have a team that usually wins handily.

This post was edited on 12/3 3:04 PM by KESpider
 
Originally posted by KESpider:
Agree TOs are a key. Worth noting that 17 of those 35 TOs were in just three games, UVA, Maine, and JMU, all losses. When we don't turn it over, we have a team that usually wins handily.
Click to expand...
Unless we get rattled and make mental mistakes, like we did against Maine and JMU. Fisher's fumble in the JMU really hurt us.
 
How in the holy hell do you have 17 TOs in 3 games??
shock.r191677.gif
 
7+5+5=17 A comedy. All out of our system, none Saturday. You are catching us at the wrong time. The worm has turned.
 
The 7 against UVA were just comical after a certain point, but that was an FBS game, so whatever. The Maine game was with Rocco at QB. The JMU game was Strauss's first game back, and he threw two pick-6s. Two of the other ones were fluke fumbles by Fisher. I forget what the fifth one was.

You can "sort of" explain away these anomalies, but I also think that turnovers are something we need to be worried about. I really like our odds if we keep the net turnover number to -1 at worst. Anything worse than that and I am worried. Anything better and I think we win comfortably.

This post was edited on 12/4 2:14 PM by Eight Legger
 
Not sure about none on Saturday. Quinn Backus has a habit of causing turnovers. He has 2 INTs and 5 FF. Two of those were returned to the house.
 
While we have you on the line, what's the latest on Saturday's weather there?
 
Definitely sounds like a party school. Bet they have classes on Carolina shag (not a bad thing)
 
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