The Sporting News Predictions for A-10

[gcarter52]

After reading the prognostication of the A-10, I found some interesting bulletin board material:

1. As expected, we are predicted to finish 5th in the standing.
2. None of our players are mentioned as one the top 10 players in the conference.
3. None of our players are mentioned as one the top 5 newcomers in the conference.

 

[Ulla1]

gcarter, like Rodney Dangerfield, UR gets no respect. Our guys are ready and they will win the A10. Bet the ranch!

 

[wr70beh]

Well it is the Sporting News. They're not exactly the power they once were. I doubt that they've seen many A10 games.

 

[gcarter52]

Totally agree with both Ulla1 + wr70beh.

 

[Eight Legger]

I am hoping that this is finally the year that we get a little attitude about us and come out from the first game to take what we want, as opposed to sitting around and waiting for it to come to us. If we do that, we'll win the league. If we don't, fifth is probably about right. We have as much talent on this team as Mooney has ever had at one time, top to bottom. Let's hope it materializes. I wish the season started tomorrow.

 

[keefusb]

We do have a crap-TON of talent this year, but not sure how it stacks up to the 2011 team with KA, Harper, Geriot, Smitty, and Co. That team had talent, grit, pride, and a remarkable will to win. I think the jury is still out on this year's team in the will to win department. Time will tell....

 

[97spiderfan]

We do have a crap-TON of talent this year, but not sure how it stacks up to the 2011 team with KA, Harper, Geriot, Smitty, and Co. That team had talent, grit, pride, and a remarkable will to win. I think the jury is still out on this year's team in the will to win department. Time will tell....

The 2011 team had an immense amount of leadership as well. Geriot and Smitty were both tough, gritty, leaders and of course Kevin Anderson was just a special talent.

 

[Eight Legger]

That 2011 team was the best team we've had under Mooney, for sure. I think we have more individual talent top to bottom now, but who knows how it will translate into team talent/performance.

 

[spiderman]

I'm excited, but I'll take off my blue and red blinders for a minute and question the "crap-ton" of talent we have. I won't count freshmen. they're freshmen. and we don't have sophomores. we know our 3 seniors will play a lot, and they historically can't shoot it from outside. TA was 24% from 3 last year. DT was at 15%. Trey has hit 11 career 3's, at 22%. we have very little idea of what we'll get from Wood and JJones. I'm pretty sure we'll get consistent production from TJ and SDJ, but SDJ has always been in a supporting role and now he's the focal point. shots may not be as open.

no matter what, defense should be there. I'm just not fully convinced that we're a good offensive team. hopefully some guys improve on their career percentages and some youngsters prove ready.

 

[97spiderfan]

There are some similarities between the 2011 team and this year.

Harp vs Terry Allen: Both very good power forwards. TA has had a better career in my opinion to date than Harp did in his first 3 years. Harp blew up his senior year though. I personally don't mind that TA is not a great 3 point shooter like Harp was. If your 6'8, I want you playing inside where the percentages for making a basket are much higher anyways. Harp was drafted though, so he gets the edge.

TJ vs. Geriot at the center: Geriot post ACL team was just not the same player. Geriot might have an edge in interior defense toughness though. What TJ can do on the offensive end though is pretty spectacular. TJ is a better all around player.

Trey vs Smitty SF/SG: Both could play both positions but both were better as SF's. Hard nosed defensive players, extremely athetic guys both with offensive shooting challenges. I call it mainly a tie, but Smitty was one of my all time favorite Spiders, so I'm giving him the edge.

Deion vs. Martel at SF: Both extremely tough defensive centered players. I like Deion as an a better all around defender because he is simply bigger and stronger than Martel. Martel was a flawed offensive player, but Deion is even worse. Edge to Deion though, he is better at what his primary role on the team is defensive enforcer, plus he is a senior.

SDJ vs KA PG: No comparison here. SDJ is developing into a very nice SG/PG for us. We won't be hanging his jersey in the rafters though. A lot of this year depends on SDJ's ability to run the show out there. Edge in a big way to KA.

Bench: The 2011 team got some big contributions from Lindsay and Brothers throughout the year. The 2015 team to be successful will need big contributions from Jesse, Julius and/or Khwan to be as effective. That is an unknown. Marshall Wood is also an unknown, I guess the player he matches up against from 2011 team is Duinker/Garrett.

To me, the 2011 team has more talent, mainly due to the presence of Kevin Anderson. We had some weak areas on the 2011 team that Kevin Anderson's great play was able to cover up. The advantage of the 2015 is two great players in TA and TJ and both of them being low post players with very versatile games. A defense can scheme to take one of them out of the game, but I don't think they can scheme to take them both out. The 2015 version should acquit itself very well though.

 

[spiderman]

the difference in the 2010-11 team and this team is easy. it's all about 3 point shooting.
in 2010-11, the top 4 perimeter shooters all shot over 40% from 3. the team shot 39%.
last year nobody shot over 40% and the team shot 34%. to match the 2010-11 team, we need to shoot better. help is coming, but it's young.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

2011 had a special player in Kevin Anderson. He took over and almost always came through in the clutch. It is not known if this year's team has that clutch player or not. So far, not.

This team can make it to the big dance if they get more than solid contributions from the bench (newcomers), and if they get consistent (and a fair amount of it) outside shooting from others who are not named S. Jones. If this does not happen, this team will not live up to expectations.

 

[sdspider]

Well according to Mooneys quotes below from the RTD article we have two possible 1st team all A10 players and potential player of the year and the returning 6th man of the year. That should be enough on paper for a NCAA year. The difference might be more of an inside game than we had the 2011 team. Though I agree the 2011 team was one for the ages.

RTD
“I believe Terry is certainly a candidate for (A-10) player of the year and I think T.J. is not too far behind,” said Mooney, who led the Spiders to a fourth-place A-10 finish and the NIT quarterfinals last season.

Shot-blocking post man Alonzo Nelson-Ododa, a three-year regular, chose to use his final season of eligibility at Pittsburgh. But with 6-7 senior Deion Taylor, 6-5 senior Trey Davis and Wood (4.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg as a Virginia Tech sophomore) complementing Allen and Cline, Richmond seems well-fortified inside.

Mooney recognizes his frontcourt as “deep, versatile and talented.”

Junior guard ShawnDre’ Jones (10.3 ppg) led the Spiders with 90 assists and 64 3-pointers.

“I expect him to really make another big leap. He has the capability of it,” Mooney said. “He’s a guard who can score and pass. I feel like his experience now is something that could really benefit us.”

 

[97spiderfan]

Yes, we need to shoot better from 3 this year, but our offense should run from the inside out because Terry and TJ can both score proficiently inside. However, when they get doubled and kick it back out, we have to have personnel that can knock down that open look. Has to be one of the newcomers because we know what our other returning players not named Shawdre are capable of doing (or not doing) when it comes to shooting. I would love to see Josh Jones make a leap as well. Kid has nice tools, just needs to put it all together.

 

[fan2011]

the difference in the 2010-11 team and this team is easy. it's all about 3 point shooting.
in 2010-11, the top 4 perimeter shooters all shot over 40% from 3. the team shot 39%.
last year nobody shot over 40% and the team shot 34%. to match the 2010-11 team, we need to shoot better. help is coming, but it's young.

2011 had a special player in Kevin Anderson. He took over and almost always came through in the clutch. It is not known if this year's team has that clutch player or not. So far, not.

This team can make it to the big dance if they get more than solid contributions from the bench (newcomers), and if they get consistent (and a fair amount of it) outside shooting from others who are not named S. Jones. If this does not happen, this team will not live up to expectations.

I agree with spiderman, 3pt coring was the big difference between the 2011 team and subsequent teams. Our offense depends on the open man being able to make shots, how many times in the past few years have we kicked the ball out to a wide open player who just can't make the wide open shot? If we have players who can make those shots we win a lot more games by spreading the defense out and scoring more efficiently. Yes, KA was a very special player, but he did not carry that team on his own. That was a complete TEAM where every player contributed and was important to success. We wouldn't have done nearly as well without Harper, Geriot, Brothers and others keeping the defense honest with their great 3pt shooting as well as the great defense we got from Smitty, Martel etc.

 

[HuntsmanSpider]

I think they're underestimating how improved our D will be this season. We'll be able to lock down the perimeter much better which will have a nice trickle down effect. I expect us to win a lot of close, low scoring games, especially in OOC play. Similar to 2009-10.

 

[spiderman]

defense will be strong, but I don't think substantially better. Kendall was a good perimeter defender and for most of the season we had ANO as a strong inside presence.

 

[URWilk110]

Isn't the key to this year the ability to close out games? The past four years we have had an inability to score in the last 10 minutes of games. Our offense disappears as Mooney subs offense for defense. We lose our flow. Maybe that changes as we no longer have K0 to rely on and other guys will step up and want the ball in crunch time. It is up to the players and coaches to figure this out. Hopefully that Miami game still stings and motivates the team.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Isn't the key to this year the ability to close out games? The past four years we have had an inability to score in the last 10 minutes of games. Our offense disappears as Mooney subs offense for defense. We lose our flow. Maybe that changes as we no longer have K0 to rely on and other guys will step up and want the ball in crunch time. It is up to the players and coaches to figure this out. Hopefully that Miami game still stings and motivates the team.

You highlight the in-game strategic bench coaching problem that has been well discussed. Those same issues will be in play because the coach hasn't changed. The unknown every year is whether or not the players are able to overcome the "questionable" (most favorable light) decisions from the bench. In the Kevin Anderson era, they did, largely because KA was a special clutch player.

As many stated pre-season last year, UR had enough talent to be an NCAA team in 2015. Bench monkeying put them in the NIT. This year, there is more than enough talent on hand to make the NCAA tournament. Time will tell.

 

[spiderman]

holy moly.

 

[97spiderfan]

Ha, "bench monkeying". We had a tendency to play not to lose many times last year. Offense-defense substitutions, taking the air out of the ball, the ole prevent defense.

If there is one coaching alteration that is made it will be on the mental make-up of the last 4 minutes of the game. The last 4 minutes of the game should be no different than any other 4 minutes, but we've created this mindset that is different. Play to win and if you have a lead, continue the same style of play that got you that lead in the first place.

 

[spiderman]

the other team plays differently when behind late. you have to adjust. they might be pressing more. or shooting more quick 3's. or fouling. you definitely coach differently at the end of the game. doesn't always work, but you try to put your team in the best situations, offensively and defensively. IMHO.

 

[sdspider]

Agreed 97. The nature is the team that is down becomes more aggressive while the other becomes passive trying to "hold on" vs. matching the aggressiveness of the other team. The sign of a strong or mature team is the one that does not become passive, trying to "hold on". Play your game, not be fazed by the other team and we won't have those close finishes or collapses. It's all in the mindset really. I would be stressing playing your most aggressive ball at the end of games. Close em out with confidence, just like good teams do in all sports.

 

[Eight Legger]

The team should have a whip on the bench this season. Mooney can use it to flog players who are not playing with enough confidence and aggression early, and they can use it on him in the last few minutes when he starts making dumb substitutions and slowing things down late in the game. Plus it will be entertaining for the fans to watch. Maybe a corporate sponsor will even pay to name it. You're welcome.

 

[97spiderfan]

If we could just not keep emphasizing how tough if it is score in the last few minutes of a game or how tough it is to win on the road. At some point, when you keep emphasizing that it makes it more mental than it has to be. And by "we", I mean coach.

 

[fan2011]

I think they're underestimating how improved our D will be this season. We'll be able to lock down the perimeter much better which will have a nice trickle down effect. I expect us to win a lot of close, low scoring games, especially in OOC play. Similar to 2009-10.

We held teams to 30.2% from 3pt range last year, that was 16th best in the country. If we are more 'lock-down' on the perimeter this year then other teams will have a really tough time shooting haha.

 

[fan2011]

You highlight the in-game strategic bench coaching problem that has been well discussed. Those same issues will be in play because the coach hasn't changed. The unknown every year is whether or not the players are able to overcome the "questionable" (most favorable light) decisions from the bench. In the Kevin Anderson era, they did, largely because KA was a special clutch player.

As many stated pre-season last year, UR had enough talent to be an NCAA team in 2015. Bench monkeying put them in the NIT. This year, there is more than enough talent on hand to make the NCAA tournament. Time will tell.

Eh, this wasn't solely on Mooney, he can't go out and make shots for the team. We didn't have these problems in 2010/2011 but Mooney was still our coach.

The problem is not enough threats on offense, the other team has to focus on only two or three of our players to shut down our offense. At the end of games this is a huge problem. More shooters and this won't happen.

 

[urmite]

Isn't this a chicken or egg situation? Mooney seemed to rely on Anthony last year, and Lindsey the year before near the end of the game. Was it the correct decision? We have the results, but we don't have the results if a different decision had been made. Is that enough info to judge?

 

[SpiderK]

2011 beats this 2016 team 82 to 57. Difference is 3 pointers and FREE THROWS!!!!

 

[Not-A-Homer]

We didn't have these problems in 2010/2011 but Mooney was still our coach.

Kevin Anderson was a special clutch player who took over many games in crunch time. He made clutch plays and clutch shots when they counted the most. He was the difference.

This year's team has talent and much experience. Should be an NCAA year.

 

[HuntsmanSpider]

We held teams to 30.2% from 3pt range last year, that was 16th best in the country. If we are more 'lock-down' on the perimeter this year then other teams will have a really tough time shooting haha.

Pretty solid stats! But I wasn't only referring to 3 point shooting. Our guards have constantly looked small and exhausted against the relevant teams, esp late in ballgames. It's easier for opponents to penetrate and move the ball from the outside into an easy scoring position when we are small and tired on the perimeter. We were constantly in positions where we had to rely on one guy to give 150% for 40 minutes, and we payed for it late in games.

My biggest expectation (hope) is we get away from that style on both sides of the ball...the 'one guy carries us the entire game/season' stuff. Hell, that may not be an option this year, which may be good for CM to help him get away from gravitating back to it.

Once we find our team confidence (which will take some time), we will see much different results in Winning Time IMO. We'll have more guys who WANT to score late in games, and fresher legs that can get stops when it matters. Once the light turns on we'll start playing some impressive TEAM basketball and win close games, a style similar to 2009-10. We have a very balanced team.