Will we make the tournament?
- Thread starter Eight Legger
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I’m pulling for these guys hard but not feeling confident unless something dramatic changes with how they’re playing defense.
I don't know, honestly. We have the talent for sure but to me it looks like our talent has gone to our head a little bit. Collectively they don't look to be playing with a chip on their shoulder anymore. Moondog needs to light a fire under their asses, but as we know that is not his style. If our 4 seniors want to go 4 years and no NCAA than keep doing what you are doing and that is what will happen.
If it started today no. We have the talent to play our way in even with no Nick. We seemed to be finding our groove prior to the covid break. Assuming we can capture that playing ability the rest of the way I’d say we can sneak in there. Looking around the country, plenty of teams with head scratching losses. My concern is we don’t have that many quality wins to point at that would offset those losses.
Even more pessimism here than I expected. Can't say that I disagree with it at this moment, though. We basically have to win for a few weeks straight here to get back into the discussion.
Agree. Will be cheering hard regardless of how fruitless it seems.
Maybe an overwhelming negative poll can be used by CM to motivate the troops. Wonder if the Athletic will decide to write about it 😀
The Top 50 teams in the NET have 0 Quad 4 losses....combined. We have 2.
We need the AQ, like just about every season. We still need to win the next game ahead of us, but should also be preparing ourselves to pull off our best 3-4 day stretch of basketball in March.
We need the AQ, like just about every season. We still need to win the next game ahead of us, but should also be preparing ourselves to pull off our best 3-4 day stretch of basketball in March.
Native, thinking the same thing - and based on Golden's comments about defense and toughness in the RTD article, I will be interested to see the effort and outcome vs a hapless St Joe's team.
Kudos to the lone vote that we're going to make the tournament as an at-large choice. I'm surprised someone still thinks we have much of any chance at the bubble. I'm pretty sure that one is out the window, although I suppose anything is possible in this weird Covid-impacted season.
Haven’t played like a tournament team all year (with the exception of maybe the Mason game). Not sure why that would change now
Do not want this to happen - but if somehow we avoid more Covid issues and other teams ahead of us get into situations like the two week shutdown at U of Michigan we may make the tournament. But if that happened the tournament would be called off and then Mooney would be given credit for - "the team would have made the tournament if it had been held." If the teams were picked today we would make the NIT.
And this is perhaps the most salient point of all. We aren't playing like a tournament team, frankly we don't deserve to be in the tournament right now. We have the rest of the season to make our case though, but if they could just flip a switch, you think they would have flipped in already.
Yeah, amazing how he has gone silent, isn't it? Even he can't find away to blow smoke up all of our a**es after losing at home to LaSalle.
this ^
we looked solid at times and then finally seemed to put it all together against GMU, but GMU isn't strong so we needed to build on that. then COVID hit. first game back, LaSalle kind of crushed us (outside of foul shooting).
we don't look like an NCAA team. that can still change and I won't give up. I'll watch every game. we might start shooting 40% from 3 and everything will look better. but right now, no we're not a tournament team.
It's tough when both of you teams lose in the same day. Maybe he is spending his time on the VT board building up Coach Young.
Sorry, Killer, but NO team with zero depth is ever going to win 4 games in four straight days. VCU did it, but they always play 9-10 guys every game and always seem to have depth.
I also voted auto qualifier. I just have a feeling we are going to win the tournament this year. Whether we are an at-large team or not. Looks like a lot of parity in the league this year, so there probably won't be a heavy favorite come tourney time. Hopefully, that's when our seniors step up and separate themselves a little bit.
That being said, I don't think our at large chances have ended. When we lost to SBU, I said as bad as we are playing at times, we could look up and still be 7-2 and in first place halfway through. That could still happen. No question we need to play better, but it's very doable. Then, 7-2 can lead to 14-4 and first or second in the conference. I think it's more about nice wins this year. I think we'll have some more quality wins if we get to 14-4. I don't think the bad losses are going to be as much as a factor this year. Come tourney time, I still like our chances as much as anyone. But, of course, we need to start playing a lot better, and I think we will. I think we will get Goose back in the flow, everyone else will start picking things up, and we'll get on a nice little run. Still a lot of basketball left. No way am I giving up on these guys.
That being said, I don't think our at large chances have ended. When we lost to SBU, I said as bad as we are playing at times, we could look up and still be 7-2 and in first place halfway through. That could still happen. No question we need to play better, but it's very doable. Then, 7-2 can lead to 14-4 and first or second in the conference. I think it's more about nice wins this year. I think we'll have some more quality wins if we get to 14-4. I don't think the bad losses are going to be as much as a factor this year. Come tourney time, I still like our chances as much as anyone. But, of course, we need to start playing a lot better, and I think we will. I think we will get Goose back in the flow, everyone else will start picking things up, and we'll get on a nice little run. Still a lot of basketball left. No way am I giving up on these guys.
Love your optimism VT. For once, I hope you're right and I'm wrong...
p.s. I took you off ignore to see what you had written about our chances. now I'll put you back on the shelf.
p.s. I took you off ignore to see what you had written about our chances. now I'll put you back on the shelf.
Well it was just a vote but I agree we aren't winning 4 in 4. I'm banking on the bye and a top 4 seed, so 3 in 3. I realize even a top 4 seed looks questionable right now, but man if we fall down to 5 seed or below with this team heck Mooney shouldn't even make it to the A10 tourney.
I guess it's the coach in me that comes out. Stay positive and stay optimistic. But, I certainly see why many on here would feel otherwise. We need to play better. No question about it. Time will tell if we will.
The fact that you think UR will win the auto bid is just laughable. UR is 5 and 8 in the conference tournament since they last won it in 2011 with 3 of those wins coming against fordham so those 3 don’t count. Mooney CANT coach in the postseason and that isn’t changing this year.
I hope someone posts this poll up in the locker room. Seems like good bulletin board material.
Yes it was...
and into beginning of 2020. It took until November 2019 for the team to respond to the Billboard.
We've only lost 2 conference games. SBU has one loss and SLU has 0, but hasn't played an IC game yet. Everyone else has 2 or more losses. So, everything is still there for us. But, no question we need to play better.
Optimist — the glass is half full. Pessimist — the glass is half empty. Cynic — it doesn’t matter as the beer is already warm.
So I consider thinking about covid. I am thinking about St.Louis and St.Bon. They haven't played many games and how we play against them matter a lot. But seeing how we went through covid twice. We looked totally out of sync against Lasalle. I think the VCU games will once again be really big indicators again. Mooney is definitely on the hot seat to deliever this year. Failing to pull away teams like Lasalle and Hofstra. Really stink the whole place up.
I’m not at all convinced that anyone who influences the hot seat dial is turning it. Not sure they even know where it is.
I picked "at large" because I agree that we don't have the depth to win 4 games in 4 days.
Here's my reasoning, for what it's worth:
While I don't have great confidence in anything changing from a coaching perspective, I do have confidence in this group of players. I agree with the general maxim that experience wins, and also believe that they still have a big pit in their stomach from not getting to play in the tourney last year.
Rewind to January 28 last year. We lost our second game in a row, this time to VCU by about 20 points, and we gave up 87 points for the second game in a row (Dayton was the previous game). It dropped us to 15-6 and 5-3 in conference. You better believe this board was losing its ever-loving mind. There was a large contingent posting the exact same messages as we are seeing on the other 6 active threads at the moment. There goes the at-large. We can't defend. Our players are soft. Et cetera and so forth. The players then focused on defense, and we ripped off 9 of the last 10.
I still believe in these players and that they can get on that same streak, with the one huge caveat that we don't have any more COVID pauses. If we can really get in the rhythm of game-practice-practice-game-practice-practice I think we'll get on a good streak. I also think they will improve defensively.
One other consideration: even with the inexcusable loss to LaSalle, all of our metrics are significantly better this year than last year at this juncture in the season. Better NET, better KenPom, better BPI, but most importantly, a way better NCSOS. And further, our remaining schedule in the A-10 provides a number of chances to significantly improve on those numbers, with games still with St. Louis, VCU, Dayton, and maybe another one against St. Bonnies. Last year, only Dayton offered that opportunity.
This is obviously an optimistic view, and I share the concerns regarding the quality of our defense. I just am keeping the faith that these players will get into another gear and rip of a good winning streak. If we win, the numbers will be there at the end, regardless of the LaSalle loss.
Here's my reasoning, for what it's worth:
While I don't have great confidence in anything changing from a coaching perspective, I do have confidence in this group of players. I agree with the general maxim that experience wins, and also believe that they still have a big pit in their stomach from not getting to play in the tourney last year.
Rewind to January 28 last year. We lost our second game in a row, this time to VCU by about 20 points, and we gave up 87 points for the second game in a row (Dayton was the previous game). It dropped us to 15-6 and 5-3 in conference. You better believe this board was losing its ever-loving mind. There was a large contingent posting the exact same messages as we are seeing on the other 6 active threads at the moment. There goes the at-large. We can't defend. Our players are soft. Et cetera and so forth. The players then focused on defense, and we ripped off 9 of the last 10.
I still believe in these players and that they can get on that same streak, with the one huge caveat that we don't have any more COVID pauses. If we can really get in the rhythm of game-practice-practice-game-practice-practice I think we'll get on a good streak. I also think they will improve defensively.
One other consideration: even with the inexcusable loss to LaSalle, all of our metrics are significantly better this year than last year at this juncture in the season. Better NET, better KenPom, better BPI, but most importantly, a way better NCSOS. And further, our remaining schedule in the A-10 provides a number of chances to significantly improve on those numbers, with games still with St. Louis, VCU, Dayton, and maybe another one against St. Bonnies. Last year, only Dayton offered that opportunity.
This is obviously an optimistic view, and I share the concerns regarding the quality of our defense. I just am keeping the faith that these players will get into another gear and rip of a good winning streak. If we win, the numbers will be there at the end, regardless of the LaSalle loss.
It's all possible, yes. But when under Mooney have we ever done something like sweeping SLU and VCU and beating Bona? I would rate the chances of that happening this year at like 0.5%, even with this group. It's just not happening. Maybe we can go 4-1 in those games and find our way in, but it would be like us to do that and then lose to Fordham or something and negate all the good work we did.
So this is well thought out, I appreciate the optimism. It sort of raises the specter of why does the team find itself with their back against the wall again. This is the year and team that you’re in really positive control of your at large position.
I try not to get sucked down into quitting before the fat lady sings but it’s untenable that we have to bank on a major run or tournament championship to land where everyone expected we’d be preseason.
Off my soapbox, gonna go find some Snoballs and a 1.75l of Bowman’s vodka to wash them down with.
Alright if we ever needed the opposite of the EL kiss of death....this is it
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
I think we could seriously go .500 the rest of the way and he still wouldn't need to be concerned with losing his job, that's how comfortable and cushy things are here. We already know that no matter how off the rails things go they will just chalk it up to injuries and covid and weir transferring and academic standards etc etc etc
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