VCU vs UR at Costco

[97spiderfan]

Having watched the first game, I surmise that we have close to a ZERO chance of winning at their place. We could not even start our offense the entire night. VCU pressed us, so it took nearly the full 10 seconds to get it across mid court, and then we predictably passed it around the wing for another 10-15 seconds. Nelson was not good, he looked scared to attack them and he didn't, when he wasn't in the game, Goose didn't respond well to the pressure, turning it over a couple times, Randolph was a non factor as well. Worst of all, Mooney made zero adjustments at halftime or if he did, they were completely ineffective.

Given that, I'm not exactly sure how anyone have any optimism that we are going to go down to their building, where even are good teams struggle, and beat them.

 

[spiderman]

yeah, Friday unfortunately went pretty much as expected.

we don't handle well enough to deal with pressure. only a couple of times did we make them pay for pressing us. instead if we don't turn it over we settle in after working hard just to get the ball across half court, only to start up our offense and run out of time. not only did we have shot clock violations but we also heaved up crappy shots to barely beat the buzzer. not to mention we don't shoot all that well anyway. Roche can but he can be defended. I'm amazed any team sits back and lets us run our stuff. I didn't expect VCU to let us ... and they didn't.

we're better defensively than we've been in a while, but worse offensively. and I don't think it's fixable with scheme. we have to hope Trevor Smith is an offensive spark from day 1, and hope Noyes or Tanner or someone else can step in for Burton without a monsterous drop off. and Nelson has to continue to develop.

but I'll be surprised if there's a solution in a month.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

"I'm amazed any team sits back and lets us run our stuff."

Davidson does bc they are also a finesse team, which is why we have success vs them.

Other teams do bc they play disorganized or lazy defense - the Fordhams and recent URI teams, etc. and we've had success against them.

Against teams with aggressive on ball defense, even past teams struggled to get the offense started. The first pass in previous years would usually go to Sherod and if they denied the standard weave pass, it generally would mean someone like Cayo would then have the ball on the wing and 5 seconds would go by before a full reset of our action would happen and leave 12-15 seconds to figure out a shot. The poor ballhandling on this year's team just exacerbates it. (sidenote, someone please get Tyler new shoes so he stops slipping nonstop.)

Again, watch how many shot fakes occur in the UR offense (very few) vs. how many catch and immediate non-threatening passes happen (many.) Most actions in the UR offense are single-threat (pass) vs the traditional triple threat (shoot, drive, pass.)

 

[spider23]

Again, watch how many shot fakes occur in the UR offense (very few) vs. how many catch and immediate non-threatening passes happen (many.) Most actions in the UR offense are single-threat (pass) vs the traditional triple threat (shoot, drive, pass.)

This is an excellent point, there is a ton of running the offense without looking to score - Burton will look, and Roche, but most guys are looking for the next pass, etc. I get that you run the defense around for 15-20 seconds it can cause a lapse, but again that is less likely when the threat to shoot/drive is not occurring. Maybe part of it is that we dont really have dribble/drive creators and shot makers on this team. I feel like Randolph catches it and surveys the options, but guys like Goose just look to keep running the play.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

I think the ESPN announcer in the Barclay's game called it fake offense. He was referencing the taking the air out of the ball endgame, but it's the same concept if you're running action but not looking to actually score .

It's a great phrase.

 

[97spiderfan]

This is an excellent point, there is a ton of running the offense without looking to score - Burton will look, and Roche, but most guys are looking for the next pass, etc. I get that you run the defense around for 15-20 seconds it can cause a lapse, but again that is less likely when the threat to shoot/drive is not occurring. Maybe part of it is that we dont really have dribble/drive creators and shot makers on this team. I feel like Randolph catches it and surveys the options, but guys like Goose just look to keep running the play.

Goose, Grace and Nelson are all guilty of this, which is 3/5 of our starting offense. Grace and Nelson in particular will take it inside with absolutely zero intention to score just to pass or dribble it out. Grace had a couple plays where he drove baseline, where he literally could have just laid it up but he doesn't because that is not the "design" of our offense.

This offensive style plays right into VCU hands who like to pressure the ball handlers up top, so we basically had some openings to score once we got it inside but because our guys are so conditioned to running the offense, they ended up taking right back into the teeth of the VCU defense.

Burton was the only guy who would take it to the rack, which of course VCU knew, so they had a couple guys there to meet him, bump him, make that shot really hard.

 

[urmite]

I think the ESPN announcer in the Barclay's game called it fake offense. He was referencing the taking the air out of the ball endgame, but it's the same concept if you're running action but not looking to actually score .

It's a great phrase.

I feel like I have seen Vermont perform that type of offense effectively.
They had a 10 second offensive scheme, but often 20 seconds on the shot clock.
So, they would simply pass it around for 8 seconds of fake offense, then start the real offense and score with 2 seconds left. Over and over again. So if you got very far behind them, you had a problem.

 

[spiderman]

Goose, Grace and Nelson are all guilty of this, which is 3/5 of our starting offense. Grace and Nelson in particular will take it inside with absolutely zero intention to score just to pass or dribble it out. Grace had a couple plays where he drove baseline, where he literally could have just laid it up but he doesn't because that is not the "design" of our offense.

I don't know where you're getting this, particularly about Grace. he loves to back his man down and shoot that hook. if he gets a chance to score he does. he's not just running an offense.

he's just not explosive. when he gets too far behind the basket, the pass to the opposite corner is a good option.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I don't know where you're getting this, particularly about Grace. he loves to back his man down and shoot that hook. if he gets a chance to score he does. he's not just running an offense.

he's just not explosive. when he gets too far behind the basket, the pass to the opposite corner is a good option.

It's the dribble drive Grace vs the post/backing-in Grace. Dribble-Drive Grace almost never drives to shoot. Backing-in Grace does. But it has become very predictable, so that if he drives but doesn't then turn to back in, you know he will be looking to pass.

 

[spiderman]

It's the dribble drive Grace vs the post/backing-in Grace. Dribble-Drive Grace almost never drives to shoot. Backing-in Grace does. But it has become very predictable, so that if he drives but doesn't then turn to back in, you know he will be looking to pass.

usually can't get all the way, but he did drive to the basket against VCU.
it's the 2nd highlight in the game highlights video.

 

[spider23]

It's the dribble drive Grace vs the post/backing-in Grace. Dribble-Drive Grace almost never drives to shoot. Backing-in Grace does. But it has become very predictable, so that if he drives but doesn't then turn to back in, you know he will be looking to pass.

This is where teams do what is called a "self scout" and determine this is the case and correct via coaching. Either not happening, or Grace cannot break the habit, or that is the plan.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Related to this discussion but on a broader topic, do you (collective you) think that the offense gets more good looks or bad looks as a whole?

Good looks - open 3s and layups, shots at the rim, backdoors, action that leads to free throws.
Bad looks - rushed shots bc late in shot clock, heavily contested shots, most mid-range shots (even if open), turnovers related to offense (such as shot clock violations)
Unrelated looks - fastbreak attempts/points

During one of the droughts the other night the only two buckets that UR made in first 5m of 2nd half were from fast breaks. Then obviously there was the 10m drought the last 10 minutes.

Against aggressive defenses, I just don't see the offense consistently getting good looks that are generated by the motion and passing. I see lots of really terrible looks like end of half stuff, bunches of very contested looks along with plays made by individual efforts unrelated to the motion (i.e. Grace dribbling down 10 times and putting up a jump hook shot.)

 

[VT4700]

I don't know where you're getting this, particularly about Grace. he loves to back his man down and shoot that hook. if he gets a chance to score he does. he's not just running an offense.

he's just not explosive. when he gets too far behind the basket, the pass to the opposite corner is a good option.

Yep, people will post anything to attack our coach and our style, even if it could not be more inaccurate. Grace doesn't shoot in the lane because "it's not the design of our offense"???? Seriously? And, Nate never did either right?

 

[spiderman]

Related to this discussion but on a broader topic, do you (collective you) think that the offense gets more good looks or bad looks as a whole?

Good looks - open 3s and layups, shots at the rim, backdoors, action that leads to free throws.
Bad looks - rushed shots bc late in shot clock, heavily contested shots, most mid-range shots (even if open), turnovers related to offense (such as shot clock violations)
Unrelated looks - fastbreak attempts/points

During one of the droughts the other night the only two buckets that UR made in first 5m of 2nd half were from fast breaks. Then obviously there was the 10m drought the last 10 minutes.

Against aggressive defenses, I just don't see the offense consistently getting good looks that are generated by the motion and passing. I see lots of really terrible looks like end of half stuff, bunches of very contested looks along with plays made by individual efforts unrelated to the motion (i.e. Grace dribbling down 10 times and putting up a jump hook shot.)

I think the offense gets good looks. as it did last year.
when the offense didn't get a look last year and we'd get to 10 on the clock, we'd just give it to Cayo or Golden and we'd get a good shot. we do that sometimes with Grace and Quinn now, but seems not enough.

Gilyard was a primary ball handler, but he didn't dribble as much as our guards do now. we're out on the perimeter too long this year.

 

[97spiderfan]

It's the dribble drive Grace vs the post/backing-in Grace. Dribble-Drive Grace almost never drives to shoot. Backing-in Grace does. But it has become very predictable, so that if he drives but doesn't then turn to back in, you know he will be looking to pass.

Well said. Grace can and does back guys down and when he does you can expect him to shoot. But "dribble drive" Grace is almost always going to pass back out.

Similarly, Nelson will score going to the hoop in transition but when he drives in during our halfcourt offense, he almost always passes back out or just dribbles back out. All of these tendencies allow the defense to play off on Grace/Nelson.

Grace and Nelson are not much of a threat to score off of penetration in the half court offense. They show this to us every single game. VCU knew this and just allowed them to dribble away, knowing it wasn't a real scoring threat.

Nelson needs to use his floater more and Grace needs to take it to rack when he gets inside. Good things will happen if they do because the opposing teams defense will not see it coming.

 

[97spiderfan]

I don't know where you're getting this, particularly about Grace. he loves to back his man down and shoot that hook. if he gets a chance to score he does. he's not just running an offense.

he's just not explosive. when he gets too far behind the basket, the pass to the opposite corner is a good option.

I agree he is not explosive, but the pass to the opposite corner is not a good option, because the defense is expecting it, so usually that person is well covered or it is someone like Goose, who isn't a great shooter from the corner.

 

[spiderman]

I agree he is not explosive, but the pass to the opposite corner is not a good option, because the defense is expecting it, so usually that person is well covered or it is someone like Goose, who isn't a great shooter from the corner.

I don't disagree. so in general Grace shouldn't drive baseline if it's going to put him behind the backboard. Bigelow can get from there to the rim. Grace can't.

I just don't think it's a system thing, telling Grace and Nelson and Goose to drive and not score. I think that's an individual skillset issue. Burton and Bigelow certainly drive to score.

 

[spider23]

This is where we need some advanced metrics - kind of beside the point to this discussion, but GK does believe that Goose is good from the corner 3 - AND in my small sample size that seems to be where I have notice he makes them, opposed to the wing being lower percentage.

 

[GKiller]

This is where we need some advanced metrics - kind of beside the point to this discussion, but GK does believe that Goose is good from the corner 3 - AND in my small sample size that seems to be where I have notice he makes them, opposed to the wing being lower percentage.

Goose is .471 from 3 this year so he's making them all spots. But in years past yes the corner was his go to. I don't have the analytics but I'm certain his % was good from the corners, & weak other places.

I was told that even .35 was an impossibility from some like sman but I haven't pointed that out until now bc it's not a huge volume. But that was basically the point in prior years too. And it could go back down. But right now I'd say he's been our most consistent 3 shooter. Randolph is higher % but doesn't play heavy mins. Roche is certainly the best shooter but he's leveled off recently as Trap has pointed out. & Burton has too.

The Goose should be letting them loose. Bigs and Nelson should not. Only open looks when open near end of clock. Goose does defer offensively so partly that is on him. This is where you need the coaches to step in and order him to shoot essentially, they need to look at shot distribution it's been an issue imo.

 

[spider23]

I said that in a other thread, I think the coaches should push him to shoot more. The game prior to VCU I think he was more aggressive in 1st half and had 7 points to show. He is a 5th year guy, he has ability, it's now or never.

 

[spiderman]

Goose has shot a nice percentage from 3 this year. and his worst percentage from 2 of his career.
but his percentages are pretty irrelevant at his current volume. while his minutes are up, his scoring per 40 minutes is his lowest ever. and his per game average are a rounding error from his career numbers despite the extra time.

Goose is what he is ... a very good defensive player and a 5 ppg guy. he was a perfect fit with strong offensive players around him. thru no fault of his own, we're a weak offensive team this year. many have pushed for Roche, but honestly Roche is having a hard time making an impact himself. we can't get him enough shots. I think he could have been a monster on last year's team ... but he probably wouldn't have gotten the minutes.

 

[GKiller]

Disagree on a little of that sman but no need to get into it. Was only pointing out his 3 ball % to u. & I won’t go overboard bc Goose could miss his next 10 idk. But I do believe in riding the hot hand. He should hunt more 3s. Same w Randolph when he gets time. I do have hope Bigs can improve bc his FT stroke is so good but instead right now he needs to be very picky shooting outside. His 3s r not even close to going in. Doing other things well, focus on those. I’d tell Noyes to bomb away too if he got in. But his time looks like next year. Likely physical strength holding him back. Which imo is same reason Dji doesn’t get more PT.

 

[VT4700]

Disagree on a little of that sman but no need to get into it. Was only pointing out his 3 ball % to u. & I won’t go overboard bc Goose could miss his next 10 idk. But I do believe in riding the hot hand. He should hunt more 3s. Same w Randolph when he gets time. I do have hope Bigs can improve bc his FT stroke is so good but instead right now he needs to be very picky shooting outside. His 3s r not even close to going in. Doing other things well, focus on those. I’d tell Noyes to bomb away too if he got in. But his time looks like next year. Likely physical strength holding him back. Which imo is same reason Dji doesn’t get more PT.

Yes, Bigs' 3s don't look good right now. They look a little forced or rushed, and they just don't seem like high percentage shots. Goose and Randolph are a combined 26-55 from 3, while Bigs is 20-81. I think Noyes will be a factor next year. JMO, but I think Dji will have a hard time finding time at this level because of a lack of an outside shot combined with not being a good finisher at the rim. Makes any offensive production difficult.

 

[urfan1]

Burton tends to drop off shoulder on 3pt, makes shot drift to left.

 

[Spider2020]

Goose’s 3 pt % is so high because he only takes them if he’s wide wide wide open. Bigelow’s is so low partly because he shoots way too often even when covered

 

[urfan1]

Bigs has taken a number of 3s as the clock was about to wind out -- rushed.

 

[spider23]

Yes, Bigs 3's are perplexing a bit. I really had high hopes that he would be close to Burton's level scoring and impact on the game. I do love the rebounding, toughness and Defense he has brought to the game. As noted, he is very good from the FT line, but his form doesn't seem to hold to the 3pt line. And, as noted his shot selection is a little questionable. But overall I like what he brings to the team.

 

[spiderman]

Disagree on a little of that sman but no need to get into it. Was only pointing out his 3 ball % to u. & I won’t go overboard bc Goose could miss his next 10 idk. But I do believe in riding the hot hand. He should hunt more 3s. Same w Randolph when he gets time. I do have hope Bigs can improve bc his FT stroke is so good but instead right now he needs to be very picky shooting outside. His 3s r not even close to going in. Doing other things well, focus on those. I’d tell Noyes to bomb away too if he got in. But his time looks like next year. Likely physical strength holding him back. Which imo is same reason Dji doesn’t get more PT.

Goose's arc is much better this year. you can see he put work in. at his current rate, I'd also love to see him get more up. he does shoot when open. but he's not a guy comfortable taking contested jumpers.

there are a lot of guys across the country shooting over 40% from 3 who take 2 per game.
not many who take 5+ per game. those guys are shooters.

of our 4 high volume 3 point shooters, only Roche is shooting well. I think some of that is because we're not very open. there are multiple potential reasons for that. we aren't great cutting and driving ... things that make a defense collapse and force help. Quinn and Grace are decent in the post, but don't draw the help as much as Grant did. and our guards don't create open perimeter shots as much as Gilly did.

but we're also missing too many open looks.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I don't disagree. so in general Grace shouldn't drive baseline if it's going to put him behind the backboard. Bigelow can get from there to the rim. Grace can't.

I just don't think it's a system thing, telling Grace and Nelson and Goose to drive and not score. I think that's an individual skillset issue. Burton and Bigelow certainly drive to score.

Agree

 

[8legs1dream]

of our 4 high volume 3 point shooters, only Roche is shooting well.

He is our top 3 point threat but I wouldn't say he is shooting particularly well at this point in the season unfortunately. I don't know what the hold up is but we are going to need him to figure it out pretty quickly. It will be February soon, the season is winding down rapidly.

 

[spiderman]

He is our top 3 point threat but I wouldn't say he is shooting particularly well at this point in the season unfortunately. I don't know what the hold up is but we are going to need him to figure it out pretty quickly. It will be February soon, the season is winding down rapidly.

yeah, I meant shooting it well for the season (40.4%). in-conference Roche is at 26.7%.
in-conference, Tyler's shooting 23.7% from 3 and Bigelow is at 14.3%. (yikes)
Nelson's not shooting much better at 31.0%.
no wonder we're struggling.

 

[VT4700]

IC shooting from 3:

6-21
6-15
7-25
9-27
8-28
4-19
7-25

47-160 (29.4%)

My 3 keys to winning: Good PG play, good 3 point shooting, and good defense.