Anyone else think the high scoring games are a result of the shot clock, not our defense. Not saying our defense is good, but I think the shot clock has a lot to do with it. More possessions=more points
Shot Clock
- Thread starter SpiderHoops32
- Start date
It has to be part of it. We still though are allowing teams to score far too easily. But I think our defense is adjusting to shortened shot clock
Definitely not. We are allowing way more points per possession on defense than in previous years, and at the same time we are scoring way more points per possession.
2014 / 2015:
Offensive efficiency: 104.7 (1.047 points per possession)
Defensive efficiency: 96.8 (.968 points per possession)
2015 / 2016:
Offensive efficiency: 124.3 (1.243 points per possession)
Defensive efficiency: 119.2 (1.192 points per possession)
Our defense is just flat out worse, and our offense is just flat out better.
2014 / 2015:
Offensive efficiency: 104.7 (1.047 points per possession)
Defensive efficiency: 96.8 (.968 points per possession)
2015 / 2016:
Offensive efficiency: 124.3 (1.243 points per possession)
Defensive efficiency: 119.2 (1.192 points per possession)
Our defense is just flat out worse, and our offense is just flat out better.
and yet the game against Stetson was over in less than two hours. Go figure.
I think the new rule that coaches can only call timeouts during dead ball situations and the reduction in total timeouts and media timeouts may be a real game changer.
The officials will determine the game time, keep calling rubs and bumps and the game will be a FT shooting shooting contest.
While it is still too early in the season to know for sure, here is a pretty weel written prediction of the effects of the 30 second shot clock.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ot-clock-affect-scoring-in-college-basketball
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ot-clock-affect-scoring-in-college-basketball
I do think that scoring has been somewhat impacted by more possessions. The main impact though is more likely to be the stringent officiating. As players provide less resistance, it becomes easier to score.
The shorter shot clock is a factor but I think that is a bigger factor than the shot clock. Look at the number of fouls called.
That article is pure speculation and was writen in June. Kenpom has written about how the rule changes have effected college basketball so far this year using actual results so far: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/early_hot_take_on_new_rules
It turns out that we are getting more possessions, but fouls per possession have not gone up appreciably. and teams are just shooting much more efficiently which might be an effect due to the new freedom of movement rules.
Either way, the huge improvement in our offensive efficiency cannot be explained as only a result of these rule changes, because our offensive efficiency has increased by 20% from last year while the the national offensive efficiency has only increased by about 3%. Similarly our defensive efficiency has gotten worse by 23%, which is much bigger than the 3% national change.
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I think one of the side effects of the tighter officiating is that defenders are backing off for fear of getting called. This may also help explain why our offensive numbers have improved, and we don't look as good defensively as we did.
Still a little early, but my bet is on our defense. It is not very good.
JMU shot 51% overall and 46% from 3.
Stetson - 47% and 48%
Wake - 57% and 47%.
Yes - there will be more possessions, but that doesn't mean teams should continue to shoot lights out against us. Which by the numbers above - is what is happening so far. Some of that might be catching a team on a hot night where they can't miss. And some of that is defense related, giving up open looks and easy baskets.
I like that we are scoring a lot of points, but I am not sure how long we can keep that up. At some point, our defense will have to improve.
JMU shot 51% overall and 46% from 3.
Stetson - 47% and 48%
Wake - 57% and 47%.
Yes - there will be more possessions, but that doesn't mean teams should continue to shoot lights out against us. Which by the numbers above - is what is happening so far. Some of that might be catching a team on a hot night where they can't miss. And some of that is defense related, giving up open looks and easy baskets.
I like that we are scoring a lot of points, but I am not sure how long we can keep that up. At some point, our defense will have to improve.
Trap, I think you hit the nail on the head regarding JMU. They made a lot of contested shots. On several occasions, when the JMU player took a contested shot I said to myself, "No way" yet the ball went in. If you contest the shot, especially from deep, and it goes in, all you can do is tip your hat!
First question is the problem on defense each player's defense? or is it players not working together on defense?
I would think the latter would improve quicker and more dramatically, if that is most of the issue.
Of course the shot clock has something to do with increased scoring along with the fact stated here about the increase in fouls being called.
The shot clock and 'increased fouls' (fouls per possession haven't actually increased) have only increased scoring on a national level by ~6%. Our scoring on offense has increased by 37% and our points allowed on defense has increased by over 30% as well. The shorter shot clock and freedom of movement rules have had some effect on our offense and defense, but the effect is small. We are actually just worse on defense and better on offense this year and that has had about 5 or 6 times as much impact on our offense and defense than the shot clock and rule changes.
It's like the stock market, how can you do it beforehand without some speculation. So please tell me what Kenny predicted beforehand the increase would be?
Not bad speculation from from this guy in the article either .......
The Greek Sportsbook @BetTheGreek
In case you're wondering, 30-second shot clock in NCAAB will push totals roughly 8 points higher than they would have been.
4:33 PM - 8 Jun 2015
Going from Kenpom's front page today, scoring totals for games is 147.4 for this year as opposed to 135.2 for last year. My math could be wrong but looks like a 9% increase.
Of course the game totals are greater than 8 points but don't think the Greek included the effects of greater freedom of movement given to the offensive.
11, all we can really say is exactly what you just said. The stats relative to national averages for increased scoring (+6%) take a larger sample size into account. Last night seemed like a real outlier in terms of the number of fouls called, and therefore for one team (us) and a small number of games (just 3 games), the effect seems to be amplified. I expect it will even out and we will be much closer to the national average later on in the season.
That said, to my eye, we are much better offensively and worse defensively than we were in years past.
That said, to my eye, we are much better offensively and worse defensively than we were in years past.
while I personally think Kendall was a good perimeter defender, losing him had no effect defensively. the only real difference is ANO. I know some here don't like shot blockers but maybe there's a ripple effect. maybe we can get out on shooters better when we have that kind of
"help" behind us. and maybe interior shots miss more often with a shot blocker to worry about. plus the occasional blocked shot.
"help" behind us. and maybe interior shots miss more often with a shot blocker to worry about. plus the occasional blocked shot.
Good catch I was looking at the wrong numbers there. Possessions are up 6%, scoring is up 9% due to a combination of increased possessions and increased efficiency.
So much of our defense is based on knowing where you are supposed to be and switching (or not switching) based on how the offense moves and knowing where your teammates will be based on those concepts. We seem to be getting caught on when to switch, leaving shooters open when they shouldn't be. Maybe Kendall was really good at this? Who knows the real reason, but something isn't right on D.
If my memory serves me correctly, the intended purpose of the shorter shot clock was to produce more scoring. It's purpose is to highlight offense over defense.
If there are going to be more fouls called, more points will come from the free throw line. Not a natural strength of our team. That could be even more of a problem in close games for us. Here rooting for improvement in that area. OSC.
30 sec shot clock definitely would lead to higher scores with more possessions.
That being said, Utah is only up 62-51 over Texas Tech with 5:00 to go... There also have been a lot of fouls called...
TT is a big team that crashes boards, but obviously doesn't shoot well per their point total tonight albeit vs. #16 in the land. I'm excited for this matchup in Dec. I'm just overly exited about the schedule in general as well though...
That being said, Utah is only up 62-51 over Texas Tech with 5:00 to go... There also have been a lot of fouls called...
TT is a big team that crashes boards, but obviously doesn't shoot well per their point total tonight albeit vs. #16 in the land. I'm excited for this matchup in Dec. I'm just overly exited about the schedule in general as well though...
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