Scenarios

[SpiderFan26]

Can we lose to W&M and still make the playoffs? I know we need Madison to beat Nova, but a UNH loss won't hurt either.

Still pretty amazing we can win the CAA after the past 2 weeks of mistakes and turnovers

 

[spiderstudent17]

My gut feeling is no.

But it'll depend on how we lose the game and/or how other teams did in our conference. It'll also depend on how other bubble teams did as well.

I say we win, so we don't have to worry about this!

 

[spiderjpo]

Win or we don't deserve to go.

 

[urfan1]

we have lost two games to good teams by a total of 5 points -- we're not getting the job done, but we are not a bad team

 

[MidloTrader]

What's most disappointing to me is that we gave these games away and beat ourselves, mostly with turnovers, but ST and D had their issues, too. Wondering if all the talk couple of weeks ago about "having fun" at practice showed overconfidence and lack of a killer instinct by players AND coaches. If they don't turn it around next Sat, all of them might be at home Thanksgiving saying "if only".

 

[SpiderRick]

Said it before, and I'll say it one more time. No 7-4 team will get in losing their last three games.

I HOPE I'M WRONG

 

[I-M-UR]

Beat Bill and Mary and we are on the fence lose and we're out. Two turnover in the red zone, fumbled kickoff in their red zone we had more first downs, yardage etc we should have won, what a shame.

 

[SpiderFan26]

You think 8-3 with CAA co-champs is on the fence. Yes I know exact same thing in 2012 but higher ranking and more teams get in

 

[I-M-UR]

You made my point it happened before. There are only 3 teams int he FCS top 25 (assuming we are still there) and we'll have a three game losing streak.

 

[Stonewall D]

UR needs to win. If we win, we are in. If we lose we are out.

 

[32counter]

UNH, Richmond, Nova and Towson all have a chance to get in if all win:

1.We are in if we beat W&M, 8-3 record,no question.
2. Nova is in if they beat JMU no matter what happens to the other three. 7-4 with wins over Fordam,Richmond and JMU.
3.Towson's only chance to get in is if all of the other three (Richmond, Nova and UNH) lose. At 7-4 with no signature wins I see the committee going somewhere else to fill out the bracket.
4.UNH needs either Richmond or Nova to lose (this assumes UNH beats Maine). At 7-4 UNH gets in ahead of Richmond(if Richmond loses to W&M) having won head to head.

If UNH, Richmond and Nova lose then 3 CAA teams: W&M, JMU, Towson get in
If UNH and Nova win and Richmond loses then 4 CAA teams: W&M, JMU, Nova, UNH get in.
If UNH, Nova and Richmond win 4 CAA teams: W&M, JMU, Richmond, Nova get in.
If UNH and Richmond win and Nova loses 4 CAA teams: W&M, JMU, Richmond and UNH get in.
If UNH wins and Nova and Richmond lose 3 CAA teams: W&M, JMU and UNH get in.

Don't see us getting in if we lose to W&M. Particularly losing last 3 games of the season-all conference.
Next weeks game is our 1st playoff game.

 

[3genspider]

Don't we get the auto bid if we win?

 

[32counter]

If Nova loses to JMU.

William & Mary 6-1 8-2
James Madison 5-2 8-2
Richmond 5-2 7-3
Villanova 5-2 6-4
New Hampshire 4-3 6-4
Towson 4-3 6-4

 

[SFspidur]

If we win and JMU beats Nova, we get the auto bid by virtue of a 2-0 record against the tied group at the top: us, W&M, and JMU.

Where it gets tricky is if we win but Nova beats JMU. In the case, it's us, W&M, and Nova all tied at the top and all 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is highest common opponent, which would be JMU at 5-3, but that doesn't help because JMU lost to all of us. UNH and Towson could also finish at 5-3, but neither of them played all three of the top teams, so I don't think they factor into things at all. I guess you then keep going down the list, but it looks like none of the other teams in the conference can help break our tie, either losing to or not playing all of us.

I think it then goes to the best Sagarin rating. W&M is currently 97, we're at 124, and Nova is 125. I don't think our win over W&M would jump us over them, so they'd get the auto.

Of course, I could be wrong about any one part of this and throw off everything.

 

[WebSpinner]

it is a darn shame that we allowed it to be like this, we had it in our grasp

 

[SpiderRick]

We should be 9-1. It all turned around with the second half of the Albany game, when we came crashing down off the high.

 

[Spider B]

Rick, the season is not over! We have gift wrapped the last two games for our opponents and still nearly won both games. We are due a complete game. Also, we are now the team with our backs against the wall playing a home game. We have much more to play for than the Indians since they are already in the playoffs. A win Saturday ensures us a playoff bid and likely the CAA crown. Not all is lost and the season is far from over.

 

[Stonewall D]

We should be 9-1. It all turned around with the second half of the Albany game, when we came crashing down off the high.

Correct. That is when the coaches started changing their schemes to take advantage of Lauletta's weaknesses. That is when the INTs started coming. UR cannot win, if it keeps turning the ball over. When was the last we had no turnovers?

 

[SFspidur]

UR press release confirming what I thought the tiebreaker would be. If the Spiders and Nova win, it comes down to Sagarin rating for the auto bid.

http://www.richmondspiders.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=26800&ATCLID=210508192

 

[SpiderFan]

If we lose our 3rd game in a row I don't want to be in the playoffs, we're not playing good football right now.

 

[WebSpinner]

we lost two very close games on the road to strong programs, yes, too bad we did not win those games but before the season, any of us would have given our right arm for this position. hope you guys all get out there and give the team the support they will need to finish this.

 

[Spidermaniac]

+1