Resume to date

[urmite]

Truth is I wonder if we are getting far enough into the season that our own NET is not a big factor in our resume.

What the committee seems to look at is:

Q1A record
1-1 (Wis/Aub), Dayton left
Q1B record
1-1 (URI/Bama), at VCU, at Duquesne left
Q2A record
0-1 (SLU) VCU left
Q2B record
1-0 (Davidson) at SBU left

Besides winning, we need these to only rise. It would take a 30 point swing for any other games to add to this list.

OOC SOS 107
5-1 Away/ 1-2 Neutral

and lastly
Q3 losses 1/ Q4 losses 0

Yes, a lot can change but maybe we should be tracking this info now?
The one good thing is while bad losses may hurt for seeding, not sure there will be a team with no bad losses in the last six in.

 

[Eight Legger]

If the season ended today, we would be in.

 

[urmite]

Davidson falls behind at Fordham but wins going away, and we move up 2 in Kenpom to 68...

 

[wr70beh]

If the season ended today, we would be in.

I'm not there yet.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I took a look at our schedule the rest of the way today and this is what I am thinking. I think we beat the teams below us - but don't beat any of the upper teams. So we will have a good record, but not a great resume.
LaSalle - W
Dayton - L
@VCU - L
GW - W
@Fordham - W
@ LaSalle - W
VCU - L
Mason - W
@ Bonnie - L
@ GW - W
UMASS W
Davidson - W
@ Duquesne - L

This would put us at 22-9 overall and 12-6 in the league. Very good records, but losing to the top teams of Dayton, VCU, and Duquesne and beating the rest. Think this would put is in the bubble conversation, but likely work left to be done in A10 tourney.

 

[97spiderfan]

I took a look at our schedule the rest of the way today and this is what I am thinking. I think we beat the teams below us - but don't beat any of the upper teams. So we will have a good record, but not a great resume.
LaSalle - W
Dayton - L
@VCU - L
GW - W
@Fordham - W
@ LaSalle - W
VCU - L
Mason - W
@ Bonnie - L
@ GW - W
UMASS W
Davidson - W
@ Duquesne - L

This would put us at 22-9 overall and 12-6 in the league. Very good records, but losing to the top teams of Dayton, VCU, and Duquesne and beating the rest. Think this would put is in the bubble conversation, but likely work left to be done in A10 tourney.

If that is how it plays out, we will not be an at large team. We have to beat some of the top teams in the league. Dayton, VCU (twice) and Duquesne. Have to probably go 2-2 against them. We could probably afford a stumble against a team like the Bonnies or away at LaSalle if we do that.

 

[spiderman]

might beat someone we shouldn't, might lose to someone we shouldn't. I doubt 22-9 puts us on the right side of the bubble.

team is as good as expected offensively, and better than I expected defensively ... even though we just gave up 87. much more fun season than the last two.

 

[Eight Legger]

The dilemma (and I would argue an unfair one in a year like this where the league is actually very solid at the top) is that of course we are going to lose at least 2-3 more games...and then the question becomes, would you rather beat all the good teams (which means your losses come to bad ones) or beat all the bad teams (which means you lose to the good ones)?

The former leaves us with basically one bad loss (Radford, which might not look "bad" by the end of the year) but no eye-opening wins in conference. The latter makes us look like we're all over the place. "Yeah, they beat Dayton and VCU, but then they lost to GW and Fordham, so..."

We're competing with VCU/SLU/Duquesne/Rhody for one of two spots, IMO. We're 1-1 so far with three games left, and the Dayton game (which could give us a big advantage over that group if we win it). If we go 4-1, we're in. 3-2, probably in. Anything less, probably need to beat a couple of those teams in the A10 tourney.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

The dilemma (and I would argue an unfair one in a year like this where the league is actually very solid at the top) is that of course we are going to lose at least 2-3 more games...and then the question becomes, would you rather beat all the good teams (which means your losses come to bad ones) or beat all the bad teams (which means you lose to the good ones)?

The former leaves us with basically one bad loss (Radford, which might not look "bad" by the end of the year) but no eye-opening wins in conference. The latter makes us look like we're all over the place. "Yeah, they beat Dayton and VCU, but then they lost to GW and Fordham, so..."

We're competing with VCU/SLU/Duquesne/Rhody for one of two spots, IMO. We're 1-1 so far with three games left, and the Dayton game (which could give us a big advantage over that group if we win it). If we go 4-1, we're in. 3-2, probably in. Anything less, probably need to beat a couple of those teams in the A10 tourney.

You switched "latter" and "former," but I agree.

I think we need to beat the good teams. As you said, we are competing with them for bids. I am certain the committee would assign a lot of weight to our head-to-head results against them. Might be enough to shrug off a "bad" loss or two, as long as it's not to the bottom teams in the league.

 

[UR80sfan]

I took a look at our schedule the rest of the way today and this is what I am thinking. I think we beat the teams below us - but don't beat any of the upper teams. So we will have a good record, but not a great resume.
LaSalle - W
Dayton - L
@VCU - L
GW - W
@Fordham - W
@ LaSalle - W
VCU - L
Mason - W
@ Bonnie - L
@ GW - W
UMASS W
Davidson - W
@ Duquesne - L

This would put us at 22-9 overall and 12-6 in the league. Very good records, but losing to the top teams of Dayton, VCU, and Duquesne and beating the rest. Think this would put is in the bubble conversation, but likely work left to be done in A10 tourney.

I agree with losses to Dayton and VCU at VCU. We are missing our leading scorer, Dayton is ranked 5th NET in the country with potentially the NCAA player of the year and VCU is very difficult to beat in their house.

I think we can go 8-2 or possibly 9-1 the last 10 games which would give us 23/24 wins before the tournament that should put us on the bubble and in contention for only our 3rd or 4th at large bid in the history of our basketball program. That would be an impressive accomplishment with no seniors and having our leading scorer out for 4 to 6 weeks. Unfortunately having the 5th ranked team in the country in our conference will make it very difficult to win the conference tournament.

 

[Eight Legger]

Very highly ranked A10 teams have a long history of crapping out early in the A10 tourney, so I wouldn't crown Dayton at all yet. They're the best so far in the conference, but anything can happen at Barclays, and it probably will.

 

[97spiderfan]

Very highly ranked A10 teams have a long history of crapping out early in the A10 tourney, so I wouldn't crown Dayton at all yet. They're the best so far in the conference, but anything can happen at Barclays, and it probably will.

Agreed, Dayton will have little to play for in the A-10 tourney. They will have a very low seed already locked at that point and will be playing against teams like us, VCU, St. Louis who will be literally fighting for their postseason lives.

They actually could benefit by getting knocked out early because they get additional rest for the NCAA. Dayton is gonna run away with the league title but I'd by money down they aren't winning the A-10 tourney.

 

[RichmondNative]

There’s no doubt UR has to beat all the “good” teams with the exception of Dayton in order to be considered for an at-large bid. The fact is the Spiders have a decent chance of doing that because of a favorable A10 schedule. The only good team they have to play twice in the regular season is VCU. Those become the must-win games if you think an at-large is a possibility.

If they only win the games that they should win, then the record looks nice and that is basically it. Definitely miles above the last 2 years, but how impressive is it really. It would be a year where the team would finish right where people expected in 5th or 6th place.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Agreed, Dayton will have little to play for in the A-10 tourney. They will have a very low seed already locked at that point and will be playing against teams like us, VCU, St. Louis who will be literally fighting for their postseason lives.

If they really run away with the A-10 title (as in, run the table) they would show up in Brooklyn with a legit shot at a 1 seed.
Now, that's very unlikely - it's Anthony Grant, after all - but I think that would be some incentive.

 

[Eight Legger]

I'd say it's imperative that we finish first, second or third in the A10 for any chance of an at-large. Of course, doing that probably means we also get some of the good wins we are talking about here, so it's basically just another way of saying the same thing.

 

[KE Spider]

Regardless if we win against the A10 strongs and/or weaks, it's just darn nice to still be relevant in late January. Great feeling. Been too long.

Believe the lads will get us to the NCAAs.