Nelson

AnnapSpider

Graduate Assistant
May 8, 2003
4,186
1,160
113
Annapolis, MD
Am I the only one that is disappointed in Nelson’s game? I cringe every time he touches the ball.
There was one play that he dribbled around and ate up the time clock, only to miss a lay-up.
Who does Mooney consider his back-up?
Yes, over the recent years I have been spoiled by our point guards . Not this year!
Nelson is a weak link.
 

Section9.RowD

Starter
Gold Member
Nov 19, 2021
954
1,365
93
5 years of Gilly is what we are all used to … and at a macro level Gilly was great in year 1 and stayed great but wasn’t crazy different in reg season year 5 than year 1. At this point, it’s clear that Jaynel is going to be up and down this year … I will say while at some level it broke my heart tonight sitting closely behind the bench, it’s clear based on his facial expressions and body language that he hates to lose as much as I do and that’s a good thing.
 

SpiderGuy

Team Manager
Oct 13, 2014
2,039
1,740
113
Freshman PG. He will be much better in a couple months
I agree. We have seen moments of what he can do which are impressive. Once he settles down and develops more consistency, he should be able to control more.

One thing that needs to be corrected immediately is the casual passes he makes which are easy turnovers. These are avoidable. I know I saw one in tonight s game and maybe 2??? I’ve seen this in other games.
 

brooklyn brownstone

Team Manager
Oct 31, 2007
2,657
543
113
I agree. We have seen moments of what he can do which are impressive. Once he settles down and develops more consistency, he should be able to control more.

One thing that needs to be corrected immediately is the casual passes he makes which are easy turnovers. These are avoidable. I know I saw one in tonight s game and maybe 2??? I’ve seen this in other games.
Yes. Crisp passes are a thing. When the team isn't sharp, many guys make lackadaisical passes. It's a reason I like Goose, he generally zips passes with either hand and cuts hard. That's what is needed to force the defense to defend the full clock, not just after we pass the ball around unthreateningly for awhile. As the ESPN announcer said, that's fake offense. Nelson has been as guilty as anyone on the weak passes leading to fake offense. As the PG, he needs to dictate our pace.
 

SpiderTrap

Graduate Assistant
Nov 6, 2007
5,593
1,663
113
I think Nelson is playing as expected. He will be up and down, as mentioned before - this is his first year playing in really 2 years. Yes - he practiced last season and everyone thinks he was going up against Gilyard everyday, but in reality - how many reps were they going against each other. I would think by halfway through the season - Gilyard's reps are less and less because of the minutes he was playing. EIther way - I see this as a frosh season for him. He will be up and down, but with really little to no support behind him at this point - we need him to play through these rough times and hopefully by middle of A10 play - he is more consistent and playing better.

Issue is right now we don't have a real alternative behind him. And to be honest - we rarely do at PG because Mooney has been lucky to have this position pretty solid and that guy normally plays 32+ minutes a night every game. So we have never really had a true backup PG to step in for starting PG with off night.
 

GKiller

Head Coach
Jun 3, 2003
8,776
4,519
113
Nelson should continue to get majority of minutes at PG but as I mentioned preseason I believe there is room for Goose to get more spot mins there. Especially those games where Nelson is struggling. We have to analyze some shot distribution too. Have many guys not shooting well but hopefully that sorts itself out.

When Grace is back I would like to see a lineup w goose Roche Bigs Burton & Grace get some run.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VT4700

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,736
2,129
113
Nelson should continue to get majority of minutes at PG but as I mentioned preseason I believe there is room for Goose to get more spot mins there. Especially those games where Nelson is struggling. We have to analyze some shot distribution too. Have many guys not shooting well but hopefully that sorts itself out.

When Grace is back I would like to see a lineup w goose Roche Bigs Burton & Grace get some run.
That puts 5 of our top 6 out there when Nelson rests, so it looks good to me.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GKiller

plydogg

Team Manager
Mar 2, 2018
2,449
3,033
113
I have a lot of confidence in Nelson’s potential. There’s a lot of room for growth there and we’ll have plenty of bumps in that ride as we see both the ups and downs. Last night wasn’t great, but that seemed to be a team wide thing
 

urmite

Spider's Club
Gold Member
Dec 2, 2004
10,208
3,283
113
Nelson should continue to get majority of minutes at PG but as I mentioned preseason I believe there is room for Goose to get more spot mins there. Especially those games where Nelson is struggling. We have to analyze some shot distribution too. Have many guys not shooting well but hopefully that sorts itself out.

When Grace is back I would like to see a lineup w goose Roche Bigs Burton & Grace get some run.
All three of our option at PG have too many turnovers (Nelson, Dji, Goose)

And Assist to Turnover? Golden about 1.62, Gilly about 2.07
Goose was .725 as Freshman, .5 for 114 games, .35 this season
Dji has so few games, but .538 this season but by increasing assists not reducing turnovers.
Nelson is 1.44 but nearly 40% more turnovers than Gilly, and other than the Cuse game shooting 18% from 3

Burton & Roche are the only ones on the team that don't have high turnover.
 

Mo 2.0

Letter Winner
Jul 6, 2021
423
890
93
Jason Nelson is the least of our problems.

Remember in an ideal (normal) situation, he'd have been playing 10-15 minutes per game as a freshman before taking full reins at the most important position on the basketball court.
 

flyder19

Rookie
Gold Member
Nov 7, 2022
142
208
43
Anyone who thought JayNel was going to be consistent throughout his first season in college ball needs to get a grip. He's flashed his potential in some games this season, and that's what matters to me. Hopefully he can continue to consult with Gilly and the coaches and cut down on some mistakes heading into A10 play.

I'm not worried for him, he's getting a lot of playing time early in his career, which is great for his potential down the line.

He'll stay streaky for a little bit, that should've been accepted way before the season started. Keep it up JayNel, your passion for winning is one this team desperately needs right now.
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,928
6,214
113
the unavoidable comparisons to Gilyard are unfortunate. that's a high bar. I don't think shooting comes as natural for Nelson. Gilly was a pure shooter from day 1 in addition to his PG skills.
 

SpiderGuy

Team Manager
Oct 13, 2014
2,039
1,740
113
Nelson should continue to get majority of minutes at PG but as I mentioned preseason I believe there is room for Goose to get more spot mins there. Especially those games where Nelson is struggling. We have to analyze some shot distribution too. Have many guys not shooting well but hopefully that sorts itself out.

When Grace is back I would like to see a lineup w goose Roche Bigs Burton & Grace get some run.
I like that lineup. I definitely agree that Roche & Bigs should get considerable minutes, as their value added seem to me to be deserving of and needed for the team.
 

GKiller

Head Coach
Jun 3, 2003
8,776
4,519
113
All three of our option at PG have too many turnovers (Nelson, Dji, Goose)

And Assist to Turnover? Golden about 1.62, Gilly about 2.07
Goose was .725 as Freshman, .5 for 114 games, .35 this season
Dji has so few games, but .538 this season but by increasing assists not reducing turnovers.
Nelson is 1.44 but nearly 40% more turnovers than Gilly, and other than the Cuse game shooting 18% from 3

Burton & Roche are the only ones on the team that don't have high turnover.

where are u getting the assist to TO ratios? Not seeing those #'s.
 

urmite

Spider's Club
Gold Member
Dec 2, 2004
10,208
3,283
113
I may be saying it wrong. I’m looking at 2 KenPom stats

“Assist Rate (ARate): This is assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court.
Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context. Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%.”

so ARate divided by TORate


I’m sure I don’t have a good understanding of it, but I assume 2011 would…
 
Last edited:

GKiller

Head Coach
Jun 3, 2003
8,776
4,519
113
I may be saying it wrong. I’m looking at 2 KenPom stats

“Assist Rate (ARate): This is assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court.
Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context. Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%.”

so ARate divided by TORate


I’m sure I don’t have a good understanding of it, but I assume 2011 would…

does Pomeroy even divide ARate by TORate
 

spiderjpo

Assistant Coach
Mar 11, 2004
650
905
93
Nelson will be fine. The adjustment he will have to make is being able to finish at the rim against bigger and stronger players. He has no problem beating his man off the dribble. He will figure this out. My hope is that his free throw shooting will continue to improve moving forward.
 

97spiderfan

Spider's Club
Feb 2, 2005
13,244
9,020
113
Remember in an ideal (normal) situation, he'd have been playing 10-15 minutes per game as a freshman before taking full reins at the most important position on the basketball court.
Good point. I understand the desire from Nelson's end to redshirt last year, but the reality is he wasn't afforded what we typically afford our point guards which is playing alongside and with the incumbent PG before giving the keys to car.

I think Nelson is going to be great BUT when we reloaded in the transfer portal, it put expectations on him to be great now, and that is the unfortunate circumstance he finds himself in right now.
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,928
6,214
113
it'll pay off long term. he'll be great in 2025/26 when he would have been gone without the redshirt.

he'd be better right now if he played a little last year, but long term is more important to me. I think he'll be worth the wait.
 

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,736
2,129
113
With Jacob having so many 40 minute games last year, how much would he have even played? He made the right decision.
 

gcarter52

Team Manager
Nov 21, 2011
1,952
1,332
113
Rock Hill, SC
Am I the only one that is disappointed in Nelson’s game? I cringe every time he touches the ball.
There was one play that he dribbled around and ate up the time clock, only to miss a lay-up.
Who does Mooney consider his back-up?
Yes, over the recent years I have been spoiled by our point guards . Not this year!
Nelson is a weak link.
Stop overacting, he is going to shine. Just wait and see!
 

fan2011

Graduate Assistant
Apr 21, 2014
4,098
2,694
113
I may be saying it wrong. I’m looking at 2 KenPom stats

“Assist Rate (ARate): This is assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court.
Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context. Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%.”

so ARate divided by TORate


I’m sure I don’t have a good understanding of it, but I assume 2011 would…
I think the Assist rate / TO rate calculation will make players who take a lot of shots look better, and players who take few shots look worse, compared to pure assist / turnover ratio. Would be interesting to look into.

TO Rate ~= TOs / (TOs + FGA)
Assist Rate = Assists / (Teammate's FGM)

Assist Rate / TO Rate ~= A/TO * ((TOs + FGA) / Teammate's FGM)
 
Last edited:

urfan1

Moderator
Moderator
Jan 9, 2003
18,156
4,282
113
Nelson will be fine. The adjustment he will have to make is being able to finish at the rim against bigger and stronger players. He has no problem beating his man off the dribble. He will figure this out. My hope is that his free throw shooting will continue to improve moving forward.
learn KA's drive, stop, and teardrop; change the way the big's defend your drive to the hoop.
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,928
6,214
113
I also think Nelson can be another great UR PG. I love how the board understands he'll have some ups and downs. he's not consistent yet but, he I believe he will be.

we need to have the same understanding for this year's team. a team with a young, inconsistent PG will sometimes struggles. but it will get better.
 

Latest posts