My ChoppinBroccoli ResearchThread

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

CB stated how many times this season Mooney's team this season has LOST when favored to win and times Mooney's team WON when an underdog expected to lose. Did some research on it over his tenure as coach.

Mooney as coach from 2006 to 2011 (6 seasons ending with sweet 16 loss)
+10 (35 games WON as underdog - 25 games LOST as favorite)

Mooney as coach from 2012 to 2018 (7 seasons without 1 NCAA bid*)
-8 (26 games WON as underdog - 34 games LOST as favorite)

Looking at the above better than average record but trending in the wrong direction. Now add to that what CB posted about Mooney's record this year.
-6 (1 game WON as underdog - 7 games LOST as favorite)

I think CB's stat is the final nail positioned in the coffin for me. Two losses to those guys on Broad St would be the hammer. Probably going to happen against them unless something magical happens. Probably would root for Mooney's team if only he could show some honesty to the fans through the media in his team's underachieving. My feelings for Chris Mooney personally are trending downward. Sincerely wish it wasn't so!

*sorry, made me smile to add that fact!

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Bravo - thanks for doing the legwork. I'll reiterate that our one win as an underdog this year, we were +1 at GW. Some sites had it as even.
It's still hard to believe we've been favored in 13 games this year - although maybe not so hard when you think about how soft Mooney scheduled OOC.

Mooney as coach from 2007 to 2018 (7 seasons without 1 NCAA bid*)

I think you meant "2012 to 2018" here.

I would be interested in our record against the spread over Mooney's tenure. I think the professional handicappers' expectations are a good barometer of whether a team is over/underachieving. It's been a long time since we had our reputation as giant-killers. I suspect the ATS records of Tarrant/Beilein/Wainwright were much higher.

Another thing I'm looking into is the number of games we had an 80% or higher win expectation in the second half, only to lose. I'm sure Matt Smith would blame the fans.

 

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

Thanks CB for catching my mistakes. Guess I was smiling too much typing that.

 

[Spiders05]

I don't bet on games, but interesting analysis.