MId Major’s best chance to win it all

[fatherspider]

This year is the best chance for a Mid Major to win it all. With the mediocrity within the P6 and the traditional powerhouse teams having down years like Duke, UNC and Kentucky, I think this might be the year a MM wins it all.

Watching the top p6 teams over this past month shows you that they are not nearly as dominant as in year’s past.

I think the Zags and Dayton are the best and it would make a great final but the committee likely wont put both as 1 seeds.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Connecticut won it all in 2014.

 

[spider23]

This has been all the hype, but will probably be Duke, Kansas, Mich State, Kentucky final 4.

 

[bullfrog91]

Connecticut won it all in 2014.

They werent a mid major

 

[fatherspider]

They werent a mid major

It was like their first year in AAC but no way anyone considered them a mid major that year. Choppin trying to be cute, right Choppin'?

 

[fatherspider]

This has been all the hype, but will probably be Duke, Kansas, Mich State, Kentucky final 4.

I don't think so. Duke is not good this year. Mich state has 9 losses. Kentucky just lost to Tennessee. Kansas is good though and could be the one that spoils this prophecy.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

It was like their first year in AAC but no way anyone considered them a mid major that year. Choppin trying to be cute, right Choppin'?

No, not trying to be cute. Connecticut was a traditional Big East power, sure. But they were in the AAC, and were a 7 seed. Their win was a surprise.
The AAC was definitely not a power conference, not even in its first year with one-and-done-vacate-all-your-wins Louisville.

 

[fatherspider]

No, not trying to be cute. Connecticut was a traditional Big East power, sure. But they were in the AAC, and were a 7 seed. Their win was a surprise.
The AAC was definitely not a power conference, not even in its first year with one-and-done-vacate-all-your-wins Louisville.

I get that but they were in the BE for 30 years and were in the Big East when they recruited the players for that championship team.

Now Id say they are a true MM because they dont get nearly the top quality recruits they did while in the BE.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

I get that but they were in the BE for 30 years and were in the Big East when they recruited the players for that championship team.

Now Id say they are a true MM because they dont get nearly the top quality recruits they did while in the BE.

They were also banned the year before for some of that recruiting, if I'm not mistaken.

When the Flyers play the Bulldogs in the National Championship game, we'll just have to see if the talking heads say we're going to have our first mid-major champion of the modern era, or if they refer to UConn.

I say we're both right. We have more important things to debate in other threads.

 

[urmite]

I think they will mention it if Utah St wins...

 

[VT4700]

This year is the best chance for a Mid Major to win it all. With the mediocrity within the P6 and the traditional powerhouse teams having down years like Duke, UNC and Kentucky, I think this might be the year a MM wins it all.

Watching the top p6 teams over this past month shows you that they are not nearly as dominant as in year’s past.

I think the Zags and Dayton are the best and it would make a great final but the committee likely wont put both as 1 seeds.

They will probably put mid majors 1 and 2 in the same bracket. The last thing they want is for the top 3 mid majors to all get to the final four. The power schools would all go crazy if that happened.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Agreed - the Flyers have a good shot, but I am certain they will get a bad side of the bracket. And when it comes March time - the blue blood and big program teams always make it to the end. The mid-majors and upsets are good for early round excitement - but come elite 8 and final four - your looking at the power programs pretty much every year.

Here are the last 5 final fours. In bold are teams outside power/blue blood territory (FYI - I consider Gonzaga big time/blue blood team since they have consistently been good for the last 20 years).

2019 - UVA, Texas Tech, Mich St, Auburn
2018 - Villanove, Michigan, Kansas, Loyola-Chicago
2017 - UNC, Gonzaga, Oregon, South Carolina
2016 - Villanova, UNC, Oklahoma, Syracuse

In 2013 - you had Wichita State. 2011 - VCU, and then Butler back to back in 2010-2011.

But in reality - its the big schools with the best players that make it far in the tourney. Not saying Dayton can't do it, but I just have a feeling they will get a tough bracket as for TV ratings - is it better to have Dayton or Michigan St in final four?

 

[97spiderfan]

Agreed - the Flyers have a good shot, but I am certain they will get a bad side of the bracket. And when it comes March time - the blue blood and big program teams always make it to the end. The mid-majors and upsets are good for early round excitement - but come elite 8 and final four - your looking at the power programs pretty much every year.

Here are the last 5 final fours. In bold are teams outside power/blue blood territory (FYI - I consider Gonzaga big time/blue blood team since they have consistently been good for the last 20 years).

2019 - UVA, Texas Tech, Mich St, Auburn
2018 - Villanove, Michigan, Kansas, Loyola-Chicago
2017 - UNC, Gonzaga, Oregon, South Carolina
2016 - Villanova, UNC, Oklahoma, Syracuse

In 2013 - you had Wichita State. 2011 - VCU, and then Butler back to back in 2010-2011.

But in reality - its the big schools with the best players that make it far in the tourney. Not saying Dayton can't do it, but I just have a feeling they will get a tough bracket as for TV ratings - is it better to have Dayton or Michigan St in final four?

Honestly, I think more people tune in to watch the upsets from mid majors. And Dayton, with Obi, has some major staff power. I think the TV folks would love a Final Four that involves Dayton.

 

[I-M-UR]

Honestly, I think more people tune in to watch the upsets from mid majors. And Dayton, with Obi, has some major staff power. I think the TV folks would love a Final Four that involves Dayton.

I totally agree, but you saw the money involved so by having the same ol blue bloods in, the rich get richer. Or like with Butler they get absorbed into a P6 conference. Frankly if there is no Cinderella involved I’ll watch if I happen to be around. If a Cinderella is there I’ll make sure I won’t miss a minute

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

If Gonzaga, SDSU, and Dayton all win out, they will be in the Top 5 overall seeds. They can't shove 'em all into the same region.
It is entirely feasible that one of them will be #4 and the other #5 (overall), and will be in the same region. While this does eliminate the possibility of the top 3 MMs making the Final Four, it substantially improves the odds of one or two of them making it.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Trap, if we're throwing Gonzaga out of the MMs (in addition to Connecticut), that substantially changes the premise of the thread.

We can't throw Gonzaga out of the club. What we need are more teams like Gonzaga in the MMs that consistently advance in the tourney, or the system will never become more fair. (Note I didn't say "become fair")

 

[SpiderTrap]

Gonzaga is not a mid-major. Not even close. I think they stopped being a mid-major shortly after 2010 when they got their first #1 seed. They make the tourney every single year, they recruit McDonald's all-americans, and are consistently ranked in the top 20 usually top 10, and send players to the NBA each season. Nothing about that says mid-major.

Now - teams like VCU, Butler, Wichita St. - I would consider mid-majors because while they had good runs and sustained success, they experience the ups and downs of the mid-major. Don't always win their conference. Don't always make the tourney. They may have good 4-5 year runs, but then fall back to earth. They have not been able (yet) to take that next Gonzage like step - which is sustained success, uptick in recruiting and NBA caliber players, etc. These schools are close or have been close - but look at a school like VCU - you can't have drop offs like this year and be considered a big boy program. Still a mid-major.

UCONN is never a mid-major. They were a dominant team in the 90's and early 2000's - the conference switch was not their fault and next year they are back in the Big East.

 

[The Vault]

-Interesting that of 16 Final Four teams 14 were unique. That's a good thing.

-Feel like in other years when things were "wide open" it would just be a blue blood adding another title. Maybe Duke over Butler being an example of that. Too lazy to research this feeling. Could be wrong. This year does feel even more extreme but I fear we 'll end up seeing Self cut down the nets. Yuck. Maybe the recent trend of coaches deserving a title like Bennet and Wright winning will continue and Few gets it.

-Speaking of Few, if Gonzaga recruits like a major, travels like a major, nonconference schedules like a major, pours $ and resources into the program like a major they probably are a major--regardless of conference affiliation. That said...

-Lots of shades of grey... and nitpicking over semantics. For example: New Big East is a major and AAC is not? (Is TV the arbiter, is average # of bids, is resources, is tradition?) To me easiest way to look at it: power five football are majors everybody else mid or less. Obvious exceptions to the rule like the cases for Gonzaga or a Villanova vs. say a Northwestern... but simplicity is better. Used to dislike the stigma of the classification but whatever... there is a clear football related wealth gap in college sports that bleeds into basketball silly to deny it even if we have to force some square pegs into round holes.

 

[GKiller]

Vault when was your last post prior to that?

I feel like u just crushed SFSpidur on the gap between posts.

Welcome back.

 

[urmite]

Vault when was your last post prior to that?

I feel like u just crushed SFSpidur on the gap between posts.

Welcome back.

Well, prior to Search it appears...

 

[SpiderTrap]

-Interesting that of 16 Final Four teams 14 were unique. That's a good thing.

-Feel like in other years when things were "wide open" it would just be a blue blood adding another title. Maybe Duke over Butler being an example of that. Too lazy to research this feeling. Could be wrong. This year does feel even more extreme but I fear we 'll end up seeing Self cut down the nets. Yuck. Maybe the recent trend of coaches deserving a title like Bennet and Wright winning will continue and Few gets it.

-Speaking of Few, if Gonzaga recruits like a major, travels like a major, nonconference schedules like a major, pours $ and resources into the program like a major they probably are a major--regardless of conference affiliation. That said...

-Lots of shades of grey... and nitpicking over semantics. For example: New Big East is a major and AAC is not? (Is TV the arbiter, is average # of bids, is resources, is tradition?) To me easiest way to look at it: power five football are majors everybody else mid or less. Obvious exceptions to the rule like the cases for Gonzaga or a Villanova vs. say a Northwestern... but simplicity is better. Used to dislike the stigma of the classification but whatever... there is a clear football related wealth gap in college sports that bleeds into basketball silly to deny it even if we have to force some square pegs into round holes.

In my opinion - majors are any school in the P5. AAC - not a power conference. They are just a spin-off of C-USA in my opinion. Not saying they have bad teams and they have potential for good years with programs like Cincy, Wichita St., Memphis and Temple - but overall this league in my eyes is similar to the A10 - potential for 4 or more bids in a given year, but in most years - probably 2 at most.

After the P5 conferences - its more about the school and less about the conference that makes someone take the next step out of mid-major territory. Gonzaga has done that. Others are close - like Wichita State and VCU was trending in the right direction until they missed the tourney twice in last 3 years (assuming they don't make it this year). It is extremely hard to take that step and takes not only good players and coaches, but also a committment from the school to buy in and go for it. Something Gonzaga has done successfully.

 

[VT4700]

Gonzaga is not a mid-major. Not even close. I think they stopped being a mid-major shortly after 2010 when they got their first #1 seed. They make the tourney every single year, they recruit McDonald's all-americans, and are consistently ranked in the top 20 usually top 10, and send players to the NBA each season. Nothing about that says mid-major.

Now - teams like VCU, Butler, Wichita St. - I would consider mid-majors because while they had good runs and sustained success, they experience the ups and downs of the mid-major. Don't always win their conference. Don't always make the tourney. They may have good 4-5 year runs, but then fall back to earth. They have not been able (yet) to take that next Gonzage like step - which is sustained success, uptick in recruiting and NBA caliber players, etc. These schools are close or have been close - but look at a school like VCU - you can't have drop offs like this year and be considered a big boy program. Still a mid-major.

UCONN is never a mid-major. They were a dominant team in the 90's and early 2000's - the conference switch was not their fault and next year they are back in the Big East.

I think Gonzaga is absolutely a mid-major. They are not in a power conference, and they played a total of six games against power conference teams all year. That is the the definition of mid major. A team that is not in a power conference. They have dominated a mid major conference and made one final four. Mark Few has built a great program. But, they are a mid major.

 

[urmite]

How many Mid Majors have more than 12 Quad 1&2 games? How many Majors have less than 15?

 

[fatherspider]

They will probably put mid majors 1 and 2 in the same bracket. The last thing they want is for the top 3 mid majors to all get to the final four. The power schools would all go crazy if that happened.

If they put only one of them as a number 1 and put one of the other as a number 2 in the same bracket then we know that what you say above was there intention. As of now, Zags, SDSU and Dayton should all be number 1 seeds, IMO.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

As of now, Zags, SDSU and Dayton should all be number 1 seeds, IMO.

I agree, especially if they all run the table.

Right now, most brackets have both Baylor & Kansas on line 1. At least one of them is going to lose another game between now and Selection Sunday.

 

[fatherspider]

-Interesting that of 16 Final Four teams 14 were unique. That's a good thing.

-Feel like in other years when things were "wide open" it would just be a blue blood adding another title. Maybe Duke over Butler being an example of that. Too lazy to research this feeling. Could be wrong. This year does feel even more extreme but I fear we 'll end up seeing Self cut down the nets. Yuck. Maybe the recent trend of coaches deserving a title like Bennet and Wright winning will continue and Few gets it.

-Speaking of Few, if Gonzaga recruits like a major, travels like a major, nonconference schedules like a major, pours $ and resources into the program like a major they probably are a major--regardless of conference affiliation. That said...

-Lots of shades of grey... and nitpicking over semantics. For example: New Big East is a major and AAC is not? (Is TV the arbiter, is average # of bids, is resources, is tradition?) To me easiest way to look at it: power five football are majors everybody else mid or less. Obvious exceptions to the rule like the cases for Gonzaga or a Villanova vs. say a Northwestern... but simplicity is better. Used to dislike the stigma of the classification but whatever... there is a clear football related wealth gap in college sports that bleeds into basketball silly to deny it even if we have to force some square pegs into round holes.

I just define mid major from the conference you play in. Major conferences have many advantages over the Mid major conferences regarding scheduling, recruiting, tv games, respect, visibility, etc.
The Zags have accomplished what they have despite those disadvantages so I still say they are a MM. They weren't always recruiting and traveling like the majors. Few has done what no other MM coach/program has been able to do.

 

[spider23]

I think the best thing to do with the MM tag, is be like Chris Mack:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-mar-24-la-sp-0325-xavier-20100325-story.html

Dutcher at SDSU isn't quite as confident, but he does not fail to mention that SDSU is one of top 3 programs/fan bases on West Coast (along with Gonzaga and Arizona).

I do agree that it seems best to categorize by conference. No mention of Xavier as MM now that they are in the BE. And, Uconn fans do blame their recent mediocrity on conference affiliation.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I think the Zags have broken through and have no disadvantages now. Only disadvantage might be their conference, but that doesn't matter anymore because they play high profile games OOC, are always ranked and usually pretty high, and most importantly - they send guys to the NBA -which allows them to recruit at the highest level. ]
No doubt - Few had to achieve this level for a few years without support or money from the school, but I think once they saw what he was putting together - they knew it would pay off and it has in a big way for their school and basketball program. They are a major. One way to maybe look at it as this way - if you put them in any of the SEC, Big Ten, or ACC - would they finish in the top 4 most years. I would argue the answer is yes they would.