Improved depth, but...

[gospidersgo]

There's been a lot of talk on here about our improved depth this season, and rightly so. Without question we don't have the drop-off when guys 6 through 9 come in the game that we have in recent years. And Mooney has been doing a good job of giving most of our guys breaks/rest during the game.

One thing has me concerned though. In my opinion, our best player is still not getting enough rest. Last year Jacob played 37.3 minutes per game. This season, even with the fact that we have won several games handily, he is only playing one minute less per game so far (36.3). And while he's young and in great shape, and would probably play all 40 if given the chance, I think Mooney needs to find some more bench time for him.

Last year I thought he wore down a little toward the end of the season. This has the potential to be a special year and I think we will need a healthy/fresh Jacob Gilyard to make it happen.

 

[SpiderRick]

If Mooney truly thinks this team will play deep into the A10 tournament and in post season, then your statement becomes even more important.

 

[nathanw19]

I disagree. While load management is all the rage right now and sure, I’d love to win while being able to rest Gilly more, his minutes don’t worry me (knocks on wood).

In this day and age, college basketball is10 Periods, 4 minutes a piece. If you’re a d-1 athlete and you can’t handle playing basketball for 4 minutes before a rest, especially if you’re a guard, then maybe you’re not a d-1 athlete.

To me, rotation in college basketball is more about finding the right matchups/giving different looks/finding the hot hand. I think it’s more concerning that we have no real replacement for Gilly in the sense of we’re a completely different (for the worse) team without him on the court, rather than worrying about him getting tired.

 

[spiderman]

I think it's overblown for a guy like Jacob. he's never looked worn down. last year he had the groin issue that slowed him down. heck, these guys run more in an average practice than in a game. if you want to rest him a little rest him there.

Kevin Anderson played 36.8 mpg as a soph, 37.1 mpg as a junior, and 36.2 mpg as a senior.

same kind of guy.

 

[RichmondNative]

I can't prove anything (some of the posters on this board are great at pulling stats, subscribing to services, etc), but it seems to me that Jacob is self-regulating. It think that he is conserving energy in the first half by not looking for a shot. This is not to say that he isn't playing hard and doing what the team needs him to do, just that he is choosing to do less. Fortunately, the team hasn't needed him to do more and that is largely due to Blake wanting to take the shots. The other factor is the strength of the teams we have been playing. I don't think they are a good gauge of the quality of this year's team; however, the results have shown that the team has significantly improved, especially over the last two years.

We will see what happens when we start playing in conference. The team gets a break by playing the Forum favorite, St. Joe's, first, but the following 7 games will truly show how good this year's team is.

 

[SpiderRick]

We've already had one incident of a star player with a late game injury playing meaningless minutes.

 

[nathanw19]

We've already had one incident of a star player with a late game injury playing meaningless minutes.

Huh?

Grant got injured against Auburn. I didn’t think he was playing meaningless minutes when he got injured.

 

[gospidersgo]

Im not arguing for what's being called load management. I've seen a little of what they are doing with some star players in the NBA (not even traveling to some away games, scheduled days off, times during the game when they basically sit on the bench with a towel over their head and there's no chance of coming in regardless of score).

I just think that when we get to the meat of the conference schedule a little rest now could pay dividends later (both for Jacob and for whoever would get his minutes at point).

 

[spiderman]

I can't believe how often we discuss this. the team gets 3-4 days between games, sometimes more. heck, it's 12/17 and we've only played 3 games so far this month.

the only time I'm load managing Jacob is if we get up substantially in the early rounds of the A10 tournament. not every guy is the same. I wouldn't play Grant 35+ mpg. but Jacob can. a lot of guys do.

 

[Eight Legger]

Managing loads is something for long-haul truckers to worry about.

 

[GKiller]

Huh?

Grant got injured against Auburn. I didn’t think he was playing meaningless minutes when he got injured.

Agree with Rick. The game was well over and he already had a bad ankle. A guy like Golden who has played so much over 2+ years didn't need those minutes. Mooney doing plenty right coaching but that wasn't one of them. It was a bit unlucky but you get him out of there late. Had a few Richmond friends bring up exactly what Rick wrote.

Now I don't know exactly how scoring margin plays into NET or other computer ranking systems so that could be a little bit of a wrinkle.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Now I don't know exactly how scoring margin plays into NET or other computer ranking systems so that could be a little bit of a wrinkle.

NET caps the scoring Margin at 10. Overtime games are capped at 1 point.

 

[urfan1]

NET caps the scoring Margin at 10. Overtime games are capped at 1 point.

Still trying to get a good handle on NET, can you explain the benefit/detriment of the scoring margin?

 

[fan2011]

Still trying to get a good handle on NET, can you explain the benefit/detriment of the scoring margin?

Capping the scoring margin supposedly prevents incentivizing running up the score. It also reduces predictive accuracy of the ranking system. Setting overtime wins to a margin of 1 is just rewarding the losing team and punishing the winning team for sending the game to overtime and also hurts predictive accuracy.

 

[urfan1]

Capping the scoring margin supposedly prevents incentivizing running up the score. It also reduces predictive accuracy of the ranking system. Setting overtime wins to a margin of 1 is just rewarding the losing team and punishing the winning team for sending the game to overtime and also hurts predictive accuracy.

How does the score affect your NET ranking?

 

[fan2011]

How does the score affect your NET ranking?

They haven’t released the formula, but they have stated that margin of victory is a factor. Bigger margin of victory should lead to better net.

 

[urfan1]

They haven’t released the formula, but they have stated that margin of victory is a factor. Bigger margin of victory should lead to better net.

Thanks, any reliable speculation about the formula out there yet? Some math wiz will reverse engineer it once there is a big enough sample. Should make them a few dollars if they handle it right.

 

[Eight Legger]

Thanks, any reliable speculation about the formula out there yet? Some math wiz will reverse engineer it once there is a big enough sample. Should make them a few dollars if they handle it right.

This guy seems to have a pretty good beat on it.

http://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

 

[fan2011]

This guy seems to have a pretty good beat on it.

http://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

He is just doing a linear transform from his ratings to NET estimations. He hasn't done any reverse engineering at all, and his NET predictions are no better than doing the same thing with kenpom, sagarin, or any other ratings.