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Hypothetical

MolivaManiac

MolivaManiac

Spider's Club
Feb 8, 2004
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Is there a well-packed snowball's chance in hell that we could go to the playoffs at 7-5?

We are absolutely playing like a playoff team right now. Perhaps Fordham loss is just too big of a stain.
 
Yes, we have a terrible loss. That said, presuming we beat either Nova or Madison we will have 3 top 20 ROAD wins. We just dominated another top 20 team today at home. I like our chances @ 7-5. We are playing good football and we still left a bunch of points on the field. Let’s just win next week and make jmu/UR a big FCS game in 2 weeks.
 
If we win out, we will have beaten 5 ranked teams, 4 of them on the road. Yes, we would be in.
 
KE Spider said:
If we win out, we will have beaten 5 ranked teams, 4 of them on the road. Yes, we would be in.
Click to expand...

I didnt ask about that scenario. We would be 8-4 in that scenario. If we win out, we are ranked Top 10 going into the playoffs.

7-5 is my question.
 
If we win out we win the CAA auotbid. If we finish 7-5 it depends on the rest of the environment but we likely have a very good chance.
 
Less than 50% chance at 7-5, and 0% chance if the fifth loss is to anyone but JMU.

But we're going to win out.
 
do we lose to jmu by 20 or more, or in triple overtime -- it may make a difference.
 
Any team that finishes 6-2 in the CAA is not going to be left out of the playoffs. Only four teams can finish with two or fewer conference losses - JMU, NH, Albany and our Spiders.

For now, let's just take care of business next week in Philly.
 
6-5 has gotten in several times in recent years, I think 7-5 will get in as long as the final loss isn't a blowout.
 
Very few teams will have 4 top 20 wins (3 on the road) on their resume.
 
It would help some (I think) if Yale won out, and Princeton beat Dartmouth. That scenario would make Yale at least a co-champions of the Ivy, and that loss would not look as bad, IMO.
Fordham is going to be a bad loss period they are 3-6, but it would help if they beat Holy Cross who is leading the Patriot League right now, in a couple of weeks to a small degree.
Boston College probably will not matter, but they beat Syracuse today worse than they beat the Spiders (but I doubt the committee would notice).
It would also depend on how the rest of the conference does, but 6-2 in CAA I would think makes the committee take a close look, since we would have three ranked team wins on the road (when we played them) and one at home to get to 7-5.
Lastly it would depend on how other good conferences top teams finish up and if their bubble teams have bad loses as well.
All the above is me guessing and hoping of course.
Good news is, if they play like they did today and do not drop three or four passes like today, they would likely win out and it would not matter.
 
listening to one of the so called experts on the radio this week -- they stated for a win to be considered a top 20 win they looked at the end of the season and not at the time played -- I don't know if they were right or not, does anyone?
 
urfan1 said:
listening to one of the so called experts on the radio this week -- they stated for a win to be considered a top 20 win they looked at the end of the season and not at the time played -- I don't know if they were right or not, does anyone?
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What they said on the radio is correct.

The value of a couple of those wins isnt really going to be there.

I have not spent much time looking "around the country" this year but there will be a minimum of 3 CAA teams in the playoffs. At 6-2 in the league, we would have to be under strong consideration.
 
If we win 2 out of 3 everyone better save that last parking pass as 6 and 2 and a second place finish in the CAA will get you in. Yes they will look at loses but will also have to look at the wins and how you are playing at the end of the year. One week at a time. We are improving each game.
 
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They would have to win out to get in the playoffs. UR won a few nice games but also lost to Midlothian High School 3 times this year.
 
This is what makes the Fordham loss and Yale collapse so painful. We are playing like an 8-4 or 9-3 team.
I think our odds are better than 50% if we finish 7-5. The expansion of the field to 24 teams really diluted the quality of the first round teams. The FCS polls from #16-25 are full of teams right around .500 or from really bad conferences.
 
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Our 2012 team got left out at 6-2 IIRC. They’re more bids now though so I imagine we’d get in. 6-5 at large team got in a year or so ago. Let’s just beat Villanova first.
 
I just like the fact that this thread exists...

our odds continue to rise if we beat Villanova...let's go!

Go Spiders!
 
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Do you prefer UNH or JMU to win next week. What’s in our best interest? A case could be made either way
 
Lots of FCS schools do not schedule P5 games. With an extra game this year, IF we win 2 out of the remaining 3, we would be 7-4 within the FCS.
 
urfan1 said:
listening to one of the so called experts on the radio this week -- they stated for a win to be considered a top 20 win they looked at the end of the season and not at the time played -- I don't know if they were right or not, does anyone?
Click to expand...

Well that's just a stupid way to make an assessment. Perhaps the fact that we beat them is the reason they're no longer in the top 20. But I guess that's too logical.
 
SpiderRick said:
Well that's just a stupid way to make an assessment. Perhaps the fact that we beat them is the reason they're no longer in the top 20. But I guess that's too logical.
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Well, the last ranked team that Mooney beat was "#14" Cal in 2015. They certainly weren't the #14 team in the country that season.
 
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CAA teams in the hunt:3-4 at most get in playoffs.


James Madison 8-1 (5-0)
11/9/19 UNH
11/16/19 Richmond
11/23/19 @Rhode Island
Projection Seeded


Richmond 5-4 (4-1)
11/9/19 @Villanova
11/16/19 @JMU
11/23/19 W&M
Projection


UNH 5-3 (4-1)
11/9/19 @JMU
11/16/19 @Albany
11/23/19 Maine
Projection


Albany 5-4 (3-2)
11/9/19 @Delaware
11/16/19 UNH
11/23/19 @Stony Brook
Projection


Villanova 6-3 (3-3)
11/9/19 Richmond
11/15/19 LIU
11/23/19 Delaware
Projection


Towson 5-4 (2-3)
11/9/19 @Stony Brook
11/16/19 @W&M
11/23/19 Elon
Projection

Stony Brook 5-4 (2-3)
11/9/19 Towson
11/16/19 @Delaware
11/23/19 Albany
Projection
 
so what happens if the more realistic thing happens and we go 7-5 do we make the playofffs? , i hope so. to think the fordham or yale loss kinocked us out would be very hard to take
 
Yale is not a bad loss. We are a better team and the way we lost it was bad, but they are not a bad team. Fordham is a terrible loss. I would like to think that wins @Maine, @Delaware, Stony, and hopefully @Villanova more than makes up for that bad loss. A win at JMU would certainly make up for it. 7-4 in FCS with some quality road wins I think would be enough for us to sneak in. We need this Villanova game. Big game.
 
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UNH will have cleverly played 11 games during the regular season.Their OCC includes a loss to Holy Cross(5-4),a loss to FIU(5-4) and a W v Duquesne.Their CAA Loss was to Delaware.JMU hosts them this weekend.
 
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Spider B said:
Yale is not a bad loss. We are a better team and the way we lost it was bad, but they are not a bad team. Fordham is a terrible loss. I would like to think that wins @Maine, @Delaware, Stony, and hopefully @Villanova more than makes up for that bad loss. A win at JMU would certainly make up for it. 7-4 in FCS with some quality road wins I think would be enough for us to sneak in. We need this Villanova game. Big game.
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Can't finish 7-4...win out for 8-4
 
Rick, I’m throwing out the BC games since they are a FBS team. I don’t think one hurts us at all. We would be 7-4 against FCS teams.
 
It's pretty hard to believe that UNH is listed in the Top 10. I'd pick us over them on a neutral field this weekend.
 
Same thought about UNH. Our resume is very similar to theirs except we had the extra game vs Yale, which we unfortunately Iost. Makes me much more confident that 7-5 gets us in. Conversations get much more interesting with a win this weekend.
 
Spider B said:
Rick, I’m throwing out the BC games since they are a FBS team. I don’t think one hurts us at all. We would be 7-4 against FCS teams.
Click to expand...

Not to be picky but if we win out and you throw out the BC game, we will be 8-3.
 
Yes, that’s right Rick. I’m saying that if we lose to either Villanova or JMU we still have a good shot at the playoffs with an overall record of 7-5, 7-4 against FCS teams. That’s all I’m trying to say. If we win out we will be CAA champs and receive the automatic bid, right?
 
Spider B said:
Yes, that’s right Rick. I’m saying that if we lose to either Villanova or JMU we still have a good shot at the playoffs with an overall record of 7-5, 7-4 against FCS teams. That’s all I’m trying to say. If we win out we will be CAA champs and receive the automatic bid, right?
Click to expand...
Or would UNH get the autobid? Assuming they get past tomorrow...
JMU 5-0
UNH 4-1 plays JMU tomorrow
UR 4-1
 
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