Holy Toledo ! - 11/30 Game Thread ...

Section9.RowD

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Before we broke our losing streak, I have to admit I was reconsidering the sanity of my mid week trip from the RVA to Toledo via DTW next Wednesday but back to being all in to see our team get back over .500. Toledo will actually be the team that now needs to turn things around after their bad losses to Kansas City and East Carolina. Go Spiders.

Happy Thankgiving week to all.
 
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urmite

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They shoot well and score a lot of points.
But while they shoot 39% from three, so do their opponents.
And somehow, they allow nearly 82% from the line.

Let's find a way to take advantage of both of those stats...
What are the odds Grace & Crab will be back in week?
 
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Section9.RowD

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They shoot well and score a lot of points.
But while they shoot 39% from three, so do their opponents.
And somehow, they allow nearly 82% from the line.

Let's find a way to take advantage of both of those stats...
What are the odds Grace & Crab will be back in week?
A buddy of mine ended up riding subway back from Barclays last night into the city with MFG and his family. Great chat was had by all but from what I heard he is still iffy for the Toledo game .. but thxfully overall injury could have been much worse.

I think Crab is available and has been the last two games .. but not sure when/if we will see him in the rotation much.
 

flyder19

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Opponent: Toledo --> Preseason 2nd in MAC

"Toledo was picked to finish second and received four first place votes, as well as four votes to win the Tournament Championship...Toledo returns four starters from last year's 26-8 squad. Millner (15.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Shumate (15.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg) will lead the Rockets' front court, while junior RayJ Dennis (12.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.1 apg) and sophomore Ra'Heim Moss (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) are returning starters in the backcourt. The Rockets also have added three transfers with guards Tyler Cochran (Ball State) and Dante Maddox (Cal. State Fullerton) as well as forward Andre Lorentsson (Saint Louis)."


Key Results:
  • UAB - W: 93-85 --> Preseason 1st in CUSA
  • Oakland - W: 112-90 --> Preseason 4th in Horizon
  • Northern Kentucky - W: 82-69 --> Preseason T-1st in Horizon
  • Kansas City - L: 71-83 --> Preseason 6th in Summit
  • East Carolina - L: 75-86 --> Preseason Last in American
Team Stats:
  • Points Per Game: 86.3 (20th)
  • Points Allowed Per Game: 80.5 (343rd)
  • 2 PT Shooting: 54,.8% (93rd)
  • 3 PT Shooting: 38.1% (61st)
  • FT Shooting: 76% (52nd)
Key Player:

JT Shumate
  • 18.5 PPG (2nd on team)
  • 40.7% from 3 (3rd among starters)
  • 92.3% for FT (1st among starters)
  • 68.8% from 2 (1st among starters)

RPIM's for Toledo

PlayerRPIMRPIM/Game
JT Shumate159.3926.56
Rayj Dennis144.3924.07
Setric Millner122.0720.35
Dante Maddox84.6514.11
Tyler Cochran48.139.63
Ra'Heim Moss49.798.30
AJ Edu31.015.17
EJ Farmer30.055.01
Andre Lorentsson13.812.30
Elijah Wilson0.180.09
J Wallace0.000.00

Keys to Win

Toledo is a streaky team, but when they're on, they're on. Overall they're a very good shooting team, but they haven't come up against the top competition yet and their streakiness could be problematic. They don't give away free points so tough D is going to be important here. They're not afraid to shoot the basketball, and are efficient, so our offense has to do the same. Some decent wins and recently, bad losses, so I think we can take them if we shoot well.
 

brooklyn brownstone

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Jumping into the next game, I think that if Roche keeps shooting better than 40% from 3, it's a crime not to get him at least 10 shots a game from 3. At his current rate, a Roche 3 point attempt is probably our best attempt as far as expected points.

Any update on Grace? He's now been out almost 2 weeks.
 
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Eight Legger

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Jumping into the next game, I think that if Roche keeps shooting better than 40% from 3, it's a crime not to get him at least 10 shots a game from 3. At his current rate, a Roche 3 point attempt is probably our best attempt as far as expected points.

Any update on Grace? He's now been out almost 2 weeks.
Absolutely on Roche. He needs 8 to 10 threes every night until he starts shooting below 30% from out there. I don't think he will if we get him some foods looks. He's such a game-changing ability.
 
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spider23

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If Grace does not play this game, I predict we will also hold him out against William Mary, which I agree with. No need to rush him back with a knee injury. The kenpom stats are very evenly matched. Looks like Toledo really likes to play high scoring games. Let's see if we try to control the pace and make them uncomfortable. My prediction 69-65 Spiders win on the road. This would be a solid win.
 

urmite

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If Grace does not play this game, I predict we will also hold him out against William Mary, which I agree with. No need to rush him back with a knee injury. The kenpom stats are very evenly matched. Looks like Toledo really likes to play high scoring games. Let's see if we try to control the pace and make them uncomfortable. My prediction 69-65 Spiders win on the road. This would be a solid win.
I wonder if Grace plays 10 minutes against W&M to get back up to speed and to trust the knee?
 

spiderman

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“Andre Gustavson, Matt Grace, Jason Nelson, Dji Bailey really stand out to me as very good defenders,” Mooney said.

that's at least the 2nd time Mooney has named Grace as a really good defender. I didn't notice him as a big positive defensively before. thought he got bullied inside and fouled too much in prior seasons. looked better on the perimeter though as a 4 next to Golden last year.
I need to watch him on that side more closely when he gets back.

Goose, Nelson and Bailey are very solid. I think Bigelow looks pretty good defensively too. the whole team really.
 

SpiderTrap

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I don't expect Grace to play tomorrow. As someone else mentioned - probably best to rest him this game and W&M and get him back as close to 100% for Drake.

This will be a tough game. But we should have a size advantage down low with Quinn. So I would like to feed him early on the block and get him going and feeling good. And I think Roche comes off the bench again, but look for him and Bigelow to shoot well from outside. I see Nelson playing a lot of minutes, but I think he is getting better each game and gaining valuable experience that will pay off.

Close game. Toledo - 83 UR 81
 

SFspidur

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Grace is a game time decision tomorrow according to the article
That article is based on the radio show last night, and honestly it's not the impression I got from Mooney. I did not hear him say game-time decision, just "day-to-day," and it did not seem like his return was imminent. He hasn't been participating in full practices with the team and he still has some pain.

Mooney didn't explicitly rule him in or out for tomorrow, but I really don't expect him to play...Mooney maybe just keeping it vague to give Toledo some uncertainty in their prep.

Edit: Went back and listened again to pull out exactly what Mooney said. He did say "there's a chance" but the context definitely makes it seem like he's not there yet.

"Matt has been not only attacking his rehab but then working out on the side during practice or, you know, different parts of practice and he looks pretty good, so I would say that there's a chance. It all depends on how he feels. So the doctors have kind of allowed him to play, that they don't have to go do anything. There's a certain weakness and pain level that he has right now, so I think that it's a little bit day-to-day. I glanced over a couple times today, and he looked pretty good, but he wasn't in the main practice yet, so, I know that he's working really hard and getting in there as much as he possibly can, and so it's a little bit day-to-day right now."

It's the bit with around 9:30 remaining in the show:

 
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spiderman

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if there's still weakness and pain, not sure why they're even pushing it in rehab. let it heal. then make it strong. I wouldn't introduce lateral movement until it's strong.
 
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VT4700

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if there's still weakness and pain, not sure why they're even pushing it in rehab. let it heal. then make it strong. I wouldn't introduce lateral movement until it's strong.
But, if the doctors have allowed him to play, it sounds like he won't risk further injury by playing. Who knows? Could be the type of injury that being more active actually helps the healing process. Could be no different than rehabbing it, and you certainly want to do rehab with most injuries.
 
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spiderman

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if he's not competing in the main practice yet, sounds like doctors haven't cleared him to play. only cleared him for strength work and "on-the-side" stuff ... like shooting.
once he's cleared for full work, it probably doesn't matter if it's practice or a game. risk would be the same.
 
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VT4700

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I was clamoring for some Crabtree vs Cuse. I think with Roche's emergence, it is going to be harder to find minutes. Likely would be at Dji or Randolphs expense. A lot of guys at the 2/3 position.
Agree, gonna be real hard for Crab to get minutes. Especially with Randolph looking like such a factor now.
 
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Eight Legger

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They are one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the three, so we will probably need Roche to go nuts tonight, along with one or two others. But they also are one of the best scoring teams in the nation, so that makes up for a lot of defensive issues. Most likely this will be a shootout, so I hope we are up to the task but i don't expect us to be.

Toledo 80, UR 72
 

SpiderTrap

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I expect a high scoring affair. They lack size (believe starting center/forwards are 6-7) - so I would really like to see Quinn on the low block early and often, see if we can get him some easy baskets that maybe cause them to double team him and kick out for open shooters.

I think we need scoring/shooting from Burton, Roche, and Bigelow. If we can get all 3 of those guys in double figures tonight and Quinn right behind them, we got a shot.
 
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urmite

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Looks like the gamblers are predicting 75-71 Toledo.

They had a few Freshmen & Sophomores when we played in the NIT but all seem to have disappeared.
Shumate is still there for Covid year. 1 player may be injured, wonder if we will see more Edu? He could try to counter act Quinn, been out most of last 2 seasons.

Hard to determine validity of their stats since they are 3-2 vs Kenpom 200+...
 
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RichmondNative

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This game is going to be a good indicator of where the team is growth wise. The Spiders never seem to do well with extended breaks and have been falling behind early this season. So if the team can get off on the right foot tonight, then I like their chances. If the historical pattern continues, then I am afraid it will be another close loss. Haven’t had a chance to “scout” the Rockets, but they seem to be unpredictable performance wise. Would be nice to have another decent OOC win. Go Spiders!
 

gcarter52

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They are one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the three, so we will probably need Roche to go nuts tonight, along with one or two others. But they also are one of the best scoring teams in the nation, so that makes up for a lot of defensive issues. Most likely this will be a shootout, so I hope we are up to the task but i don't expect us to be.

Toledo 80, UR 72
You gotta be kidding!
 
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SpiderK

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Toledo doesn’t play defense or rebound, however they shoot the ball very well. We will need to play some great defense and not turn the ball over. We either win by 10 or of course lose anything that is close.
 

whampas

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If we have a 20 point lead with 5, no 4 minutes to go I like our chances. Anything less not so much.
 
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brooklyn brownstone

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they shoot 3s, we foul 3s.

Let's not do that and use wing length to force some misses.

Agree on Crabtree, tough to see his minutes right now, but I do think if given the opportunity he has potential to be another shooter on the court in stretches. Maybe against smaller teams. Just has to cut down on turnovers and not get beaten on d when on the court - he had the quick hook when healthy.
 
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