warning: long post here.
first off, thanks for being a great fan and going to all these games. I value your opinion a lot because you see what happens in person, home or away. I can't fathom how painful the repetitive losses must be. Run, Lola, Run. I went to only the Cuse game and that was painful enough in its typical ending.
Unfortunately, we've seen the endgame collapse too many times for it to be novel. The only unusual thing this season is the constant massive deficits and actually coming back to lead. Endgame failures are nothing new.
My opinion? Moon's offense does not work for these players, particularly at PG and C. With a couple exceptions, this is a pretty poor passing team in the halfcourt and not a great team of ballhandlers. So lots of turnovers, when the motion offense is forced upon them. So much useless passing, no incisive cuts, ball fakes or probing dribble action to break down the defense. No trust in transition defense so no crashing of boards as per usual, so few second chances. The offense passes to the open man, who often is not the ideal shooter, and is forced to reset late in the shot clock because of that.
What has been working is when the team is set free from the confines of the offense and the game gets loose and more chaotic. We have players/athletes with skill who can make plays in open court and are effective scorers when the pace speeds up. We do crash the offensive boards out of necessity of the score. These things often work and the team makes comebacks. It's also clear that Moon is not comfortable doing it unless after a score. More micromanaging, even of things going well.
BUT, guess what? In the last 5 minutes of a game, the other team ratchets up their own defensive intensity AND Moon begins uber-micromanaging the game again. Forcing the halfcourt offense to slow down, and neutering any edge our players may have. Fewer possessions, even though trading useless/empty possessions with aggressive possessions for the opponent is a stupid strategy. We run 20 seconds of fake offense where they don't have to defend, and usually end up with a poor look from the perimeter or where our PG gets pinned in the lane and then they run out with our team on the back foot. And again, it can't be stated enough how bad the offensive endgame possessions have been and how the gameplan never alters from "run bad action and then trust the first-year PG to make a play" even as he's shown struggles against bigger defenders in such situations.
Kevin Anderson was a late game killer and won probably 10-12 games by making endgame shots. Without that kind of finisher, Moon is lost, yet never adapts to his current personnel or changes his style. The greatest terrible laugh we all sadly share is his micromanaging of his timeouts and how many he's taken home because we don't score so he never uses them. Micromanaging at its finest.
We care enough to follow the program closely and all we as fans want is for it to be successful. I couldn't care less what coach leads the team to success. I just want the team to win a lot, whether it's Moon or someone else.
But with Moon, the issue is that we can not expect anything over a .550 winning percentage. The sample size is large enough. Players may love him but he's never proven to be a winner over that level at UR.