Bubble conversations
- Thread starter UR Fan 2
- Start date
I just read on another thread that if we finish with 25 win we will have a 39% change of making the NCAA tournament. That means we have to run the table just for a small chance of dancing....that's sobering. Looks like even when we're good, we still have to win the conference tournament. Apparently VCU with 8 loses already still has a better chance than Richmond.
VCU definitely does not have a better chance than we do right now. Anyone who says that should no longer be trusted as a reliable judge of bids.
Just reading the newspaper, bro. They've danced what 9 years in a row now? You really don't think name recognition affects decisions?
Team Rankings which is more of a betting site than a bubble site shows
2/9
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/18.2/41.1
URI/14.8/76.8
UR/7.7/11.0
2/15 am
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/14.7/15.4
URI/14.0/74.3
UR/9.8/17.3
2/16 am
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/12.2/6.9
URI/14.1/65.7
UR/11.7/25.9
2/9
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/18.2/41.1
URI/14.8/76.8
UR/7.7/11.0
2/15 am
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/14.7/15.4
URI/14.0/74.3
UR/9.8/17.3
2/16 am
Team/AQ%/At-large%
VCU/12.2/6.9
URI/14.1/65.7
UR/11.7/25.9
Palm has us the second team out right now. VCU is right behind us.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
If we win out, we are gonna be in pretty easily. Just this weekend, Minnesota, Indiana, NC State, Arkansas, Memphis. Standford and Arkansas, two teams in his bracket have lost 4 in a row.
My point is, we keep winning, we are gonna keep moving up. And our profile is actually pretty good against other bubble teams. We have two really good wins over probably tournament teams (most brackets have Rhody in), 7 road wins, only one bad loss. Compare our resume to Cincinnatti and Witchita St, two teams in front of us. Ours is better.
We have to avoid a bad loss though. I think we could even lose one and still be alright, as long as that one is St. Bonnie or Duq. But if we win out, I'd put a hefty wager down that we are dancing.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
If we win out, we are gonna be in pretty easily. Just this weekend, Minnesota, Indiana, NC State, Arkansas, Memphis. Standford and Arkansas, two teams in his bracket have lost 4 in a row.
My point is, we keep winning, we are gonna keep moving up. And our profile is actually pretty good against other bubble teams. We have two really good wins over probably tournament teams (most brackets have Rhody in), 7 road wins, only one bad loss. Compare our resume to Cincinnatti and Witchita St, two teams in front of us. Ours is better.
We have to avoid a bad loss though. I think we could even lose one and still be alright, as long as that one is St. Bonnie or Duq. But if we win out, I'd put a hefty wager down that we are dancing.
I dont believe that is true....they missed in MRs first yr...honestly, not sure about last yr as i blacked out and dpnt recall much about mens bball during our last 2 losing seasons.
Correct, they missed it two years ago, made it last year and were blown out by Central Florida and Tacko Fall.
I am a bit surprised that it appears we are getting 7-1 odds to win it all in Brooklyn.
If we win out, we're in automatically, right?
Lunardi this morning
NCState loss will move us closer to 1st 4 out as does Minnesota loss as does Indiana loss.
NCState loss will move us closer to 1st 4 out as does Minnesota loss as does Indiana loss.
Yes, I will be very disappointed if we are 28-6 and not in the field of 68.
I agree with everything. Sad thing is that i think the committee is looking for any reason to keep us out and any reason to keep more recognizable name teams in. Any loss from here until semis and we are toast.
► No. 1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State.
► Last four in: Florida, North Carolina State, Purdue, Indiana
► First Four out: Richmond, Utah State, Arkansas, Providence
***
I mean... Arkansas is f&cking 12th out of 14 teams in their conference. That's just not right that they are even being discussed.
NC State and Purdue aren't long for this discussion either, I don't think. I can't help but think that at some point, that dominant win we had over BC is going to come into play. They beat UVA and NC State, two other bubble teams! Pretty sure the committee will at least take a passing glance of any common opponents among bubble teams.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/associated-press
"Others receiving votes: Texas Tech 92, Michigan State 87, Michigan 83, LSU 55, Rhode Island 39, Virginia 32, Cincinnati 14, Stephen F. Austin 14, Illinois 12, Northern Iowa 9, Utah State 8, Rutgers 6, Florida 6, East Tennessee State 5, Saint Mary's 4, Tulsa 3, Richmond 3, SMU 2, New Mexico State 2, Wright State 1, Arizona State 1"
"Others receiving votes: Texas Tech 92, Michigan State 87, Michigan 83, LSU 55, Rhode Island 39, Virginia 32, Cincinnati 14, Stephen F. Austin 14, Illinois 12, Northern Iowa 9, Utah State 8, Rutgers 6, Florida 6, East Tennessee State 5, Saint Mary's 4, Tulsa 3, Richmond 3, SMU 2, New Mexico State 2, Wright State 1, Arizona State 1"
Well, if we stay on this list for 3 weeks, it gives people a reason to remember us on Selection Sunday...
Jerry Palm 2/17/20
UR 1st of the 1st 4 out.
Bracketology: First Four Teams Out
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...ut-the-tournament-in-his-latest-bracketology/
UR 1st of the 1st 4 out.
Bracketology: First Four Teams Out
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...ut-the-tournament-in-his-latest-bracketology/
Possibly - and though it's not always the case being National Champs entering the season keeps you in the committee's mind and gives you some sway if on the bubble..............do think ACC is 3 bids or 4 if UVA makes it..................
Conference records are irrelevant. They have made it clear they look at your whole body of work. They are 16-9, with 2 quad 1 wins, 2 quad 2 wins, 0 quad 3 and 4 losses, and a good SOS. So, unless the committee changes the way they choose the teams, teams like this will show up on the bubble.
UVA is in great shape. They can probably survive a couple more losses. They are 3-3 quad 1 and 4-3 quad 2. Also, they have 11 top 100 wins, and the committee will not admit it, but they will likely take at least 4 from the ACC this year.
BC also beat Notre Dame, who has a better NET than NC State. It might also help if BC had the NET love that Wake Forest has.
BC (143 NET) 1-5 quad 1, 5-5 quad 2, 4-3 quad 3, 3-0 quad 4.
Wake (104 NET) 0-7 quad 1, 3-4 quad 2, 4-3 quad 3, 4-0 quad 4.
BC 4-6 road and 1-0 neutral.
Wake 2-9 road and 2-1 neutral.
BC worst loss to 105 Belmont.
Wake worst loss to 173 Charlotte,
This is wrong and frustrating.
Where did you read that conference records are irrelevant?
"Among the resources available to the committee are an extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and NABC regional advisory rankings; complete box scores and results, head-to-head results, results versus common opponents, imbalanced conference schedules and results, overall and non-conference strength of schedule, the quality of wins and losses, road record, player and coach availability and various computer metrics. Each of the 10 committee members uses these various resources to form their own opinions, resulting in the committee’s consensus position on teams’ selection and seeding.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness
What you highlighted is why they don't look at conference records. Because some teams play harder conference schedules than other teams in the same conference. Also, there have been numerous examples of teams with .500 conference records or worse getting in over teams above them in the same conference.
You said conference records are irrelevant. The NCAA is saying they can use conference records as one of their tools. If they adjust them to account for some teams playing each other more than once that doesn't mean conference record is not used, just that they have accounted for the imbalance.
Of course that happens, but that's not at all what we were talking about.
I thought it was exactly what we were talking about. You were commenting on Arkansas and their terrible conference record. I think a team with a 6-12 conference record (33% like Arkansas now) got in once, and, as I already said, numerous teams with below .500 conference records have gotten in, so I have no idea why you think they would focus on Arkansas' conference record.
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