This is done lots of ways on different sites, but here is my way of thinking through the bubble.
As we do this, locks are teams that are in even if they lose to to some awful team in round one of their conference tourney by 50 points. Bubble teams are virtually anyone who can make any argument for being in.
Total Spots = 68
Auto Bids= 32
At-large Bids= 36
P6 Conference locks= 26 (ACC (4); Big 12(3); Big EAst (4); Big 10 (8); PAC 12 (3); SEC (4)
(which means assuming that a team that is a lock wins each of these conferences' auto-bid, there are 20 at-large spots used up by these teams)
At-large bids left = 16 (36-20)
Additional locks who wont get auto-bids: SDSU; BYU; St. MAry's
At-large bids left = 13
Additional locks that may get auto bid and would use up an at-large if that DOESN'T happen = 2 (Dayton and Houston).
Both of these conference get complicated because they have no additional locks but have teams on the bubble that could win the auto bid and thus lower the number of available bids (but also reduce the number of competitors for the at-larges as well)
So there are 8 conferences where bids could be stolen but we'll assume a lock wins each of these.
At- Large Bids left =13
Bubble Teams = 23 (in no particular order just yet and broken into two groups - Power 6 and others)
NC State
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Providence
MArquette
Xavier
Rutgers
Indiana
Purdue
USC
UCLA
Az. State
Stanford
Miss. St.
Arkansas
Wichita state
Cinncinnati
Memphis
N. Iowa
Steph F. Austin
UR
So, now let's start to widdle down to the "true" bubble. My way is to dismiss teams who may be on the bubble but its really hard to see them getting over the hump and "promote" teams who seem fairly solid even if not truly locks.
Starting with the non- P6 bubble teams. UR is the subject of this article and will remain on the bubble for now.
I included Stephen F Austin because they made it into a few discussions That caused me to look at them because I hadnt ever considered them. They are 28-3; beat Duke(!!); and have some really interesting (i.e surprisingly good) metrics (aside from their NET which is terrible). On their current resume, they would be a fascinating discussion. But for them to be in the discussion they have to take a bad loss somewhere before the bids are passed out and that will get them ousted nearly for sure. So they are out.
N. Iowa is just out. Won't discuss as there is lots out there on them.
The three AAC teams seem like real bubble teams for sure. But I'd guess at least one of them plays their way in (even if they don't win the tourney).
So, our spots are down one to 12 and our bubble teams are down to 20 (although we aren't quite sure with how I've done that who the 20 are).
On to the P6 schools. In this group, Providence, MArquette and Rutgers seemed like almost locks so we'll bump them over.
Down to 9 spots and 17 teams on my bubble.
The Big 12 and Pac 12 have 4 teams each on the list at this point. Somebody in each group is going to get some wins and very likely a quality win. I'll assume that one team from each plays their way in (again, they can do this without actually winning an auto-bid and if they do win an auto bid, the effect on the bubble is the same). Now these two assumptions and the AAC assumption don't have to hold true, but its my working thesis.
That lowers our bids to 7 spots and 15 teams.
By the same token, however, I can't see how all 4 teams from either of these conferences can actually make it. Sure the Committee is not able to officially consider that, but I just don't see them sending 4 really borderline teams from one conference through. So let's assume one team from each of those loses early and in so doing, knocks themselves out.
7 spots for 13 teams.
Let's add Rutgers in and take Purdue out because they are on opposite ends of thinsg in my view.
6 spots and 11 teams looks like the bubble to me.
But we made some assumptions there that could change the math and left us without specifically identifying them all. So lets put some random names to the assumptions. Lets give the PAc 12 spot to USC cause they are the closest to in anyway and the same for Oklahoma in the Big 12. And we will have to assume 2 teams playing their way out as i just discussed too. We'll make that UCLA and Texas. And last we need an AAC team to go in - - - we'll go with Cincy. This last set of assumptions though is random.
That leaves the bubble 11 for our 6 bids as:
NC State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Xavier
Indiana
Az. State
Stanford
Miss. St.
Arkansas
Wichita state
Memphis
UR
I will follow up with my assessment of how we look in that group!
As we do this, locks are teams that are in even if they lose to to some awful team in round one of their conference tourney by 50 points. Bubble teams are virtually anyone who can make any argument for being in.
Total Spots = 68
Auto Bids= 32
At-large Bids= 36
P6 Conference locks= 26 (ACC (4); Big 12(3); Big EAst (4); Big 10 (8); PAC 12 (3); SEC (4)
(which means assuming that a team that is a lock wins each of these conferences' auto-bid, there are 20 at-large spots used up by these teams)
At-large bids left = 16 (36-20)
Additional locks who wont get auto-bids: SDSU; BYU; St. MAry's
At-large bids left = 13
Additional locks that may get auto bid and would use up an at-large if that DOESN'T happen = 2 (Dayton and Houston).
Both of these conference get complicated because they have no additional locks but have teams on the bubble that could win the auto bid and thus lower the number of available bids (but also reduce the number of competitors for the at-larges as well)
So there are 8 conferences where bids could be stolen but we'll assume a lock wins each of these.
At- Large Bids left =13
Bubble Teams = 23 (in no particular order just yet and broken into two groups - Power 6 and others)
NC State
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Providence
MArquette
Xavier
Rutgers
Indiana
Purdue
USC
UCLA
Az. State
Stanford
Miss. St.
Arkansas
Wichita state
Cinncinnati
Memphis
N. Iowa
Steph F. Austin
UR
So, now let's start to widdle down to the "true" bubble. My way is to dismiss teams who may be on the bubble but its really hard to see them getting over the hump and "promote" teams who seem fairly solid even if not truly locks.
Starting with the non- P6 bubble teams. UR is the subject of this article and will remain on the bubble for now.
I included Stephen F Austin because they made it into a few discussions That caused me to look at them because I hadnt ever considered them. They are 28-3; beat Duke(!!); and have some really interesting (i.e surprisingly good) metrics (aside from their NET which is terrible). On their current resume, they would be a fascinating discussion. But for them to be in the discussion they have to take a bad loss somewhere before the bids are passed out and that will get them ousted nearly for sure. So they are out.
N. Iowa is just out. Won't discuss as there is lots out there on them.
The three AAC teams seem like real bubble teams for sure. But I'd guess at least one of them plays their way in (even if they don't win the tourney).
So, our spots are down one to 12 and our bubble teams are down to 20 (although we aren't quite sure with how I've done that who the 20 are).
On to the P6 schools. In this group, Providence, MArquette and Rutgers seemed like almost locks so we'll bump them over.
Down to 9 spots and 17 teams on my bubble.
The Big 12 and Pac 12 have 4 teams each on the list at this point. Somebody in each group is going to get some wins and very likely a quality win. I'll assume that one team from each plays their way in (again, they can do this without actually winning an auto-bid and if they do win an auto bid, the effect on the bubble is the same). Now these two assumptions and the AAC assumption don't have to hold true, but its my working thesis.
That lowers our bids to 7 spots and 15 teams.
By the same token, however, I can't see how all 4 teams from either of these conferences can actually make it. Sure the Committee is not able to officially consider that, but I just don't see them sending 4 really borderline teams from one conference through. So let's assume one team from each of those loses early and in so doing, knocks themselves out.
7 spots for 13 teams.
Let's add Rutgers in and take Purdue out because they are on opposite ends of thinsg in my view.
6 spots and 11 teams looks like the bubble to me.
But we made some assumptions there that could change the math and left us without specifically identifying them all. So lets put some random names to the assumptions. Lets give the PAc 12 spot to USC cause they are the closest to in anyway and the same for Oklahoma in the Big 12. And we will have to assume 2 teams playing their way out as i just discussed too. We'll make that UCLA and Texas. And last we need an AAC team to go in - - - we'll go with Cincy. This last set of assumptions though is random.
That leaves the bubble 11 for our 6 bids as:
NC State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Xavier
Indiana
Az. State
Stanford
Miss. St.
Arkansas
Wichita state
Memphis
UR
I will follow up with my assessment of how we look in that group!
