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The US, Ukraine, Russia and Obama

On the anniversary of Germany's entry into Czechoslovakia in 1938, Ukraine has surrounded 5000 Russian troops in Lyman.
Ukrainian forces have entered Stavky, a village neighboring Lyman, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, the military spokesperson for the eastern grouping of Ukrainian forces.

“The Russian group in the area of Lyman is surrounded. The settlements of Yampil, Novoselivka, Shandryholove, Drobysheve, and Stavky are liberated. Stabilization measures are ongoing there,” Cherevatyi said in a televised press conference on Saturday."

NO retreat from Lyman at direct orders of Putin against recommendations of Russian General Staff. A mini Stalingrad. Obvious mid last week that Russians pull back or face serious risk of Lyman being cutoff. Ego over rational thought.
 
More threats of destruction of all of the Russian armies in Ukraine. This time from Petraeus.

"The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday."

 
More threats of destruction of all of the Russian armies in Ukraine. This time from Petraeus.

"The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday."

Wouldn’t that be ashame? LOL
The only concern I have is ”Stalin” waiting in the wings?
 
This guy has actionable Intel about upcoming attacks by the Ukrainians in Kherson, beginning on October 5.
Here is the map along with the link to his Telegram post. You can hit translate in Google. If this is true, he has disclosed a state secret. It might also be a deception. We will see if it accurate.

It starts off:
"❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The situation in the Nikolaevsko-Krivoy Rog direction
by the end of October 4, 2022."


 
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President Mouth is at it again. This time he made a major announcement that the United States is facing nuclear Armageddon, because of its involvement in Ukraine. He made this Presidential announcement in front of a group of campaign contributors. Democratic donors are more worthy of this assessment than the American people. He succeeded mainly in demonstrating his own anxiety, which isn’t the right message to send Vladimir Putin or the American people.

 
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If Biden really does fear a nuclear escalation, he owes more of an explanation to the American people than cocktail-party doomsday chatter. He needs to marshal support in Congress and around the world to do everything possible to deter Mr. Putin. A crucial part of deterrence in a democracy is preparing the public for the challenges it might confront. Instead his comments have needlessly frightened Americans and emboldened Russia.
 
If Biden really does fear a nuclear escalation, he owes more of an explanation to the American people than cocktail-party doomsday chatter. He needs to marshal support in Congress and around the world to do everything possible to deter Mr. Putin. A crucial part of deterrence in a democracy is preparing the public for the challenges it might confront. Instead his comments have needlessly frightened Americans and emboldened Russia.
His people are trying to dial it back as fast as they can. Biden is an Idiot trying to deal with a person that despite
the fact that he is evil, has managed to become the dictator of Russia. That was not done by an idiot.
 
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This milblogger discussed a New Yorker article about Biden's strategy in Ukraine. Personally, I believe they overestimate Joe Biden, but they are right in that he is afraid of Putin.

The main conclusion from what I read: the United States was really afraid and is afraid of the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Experts in Washington calculated that large-scale assistance to Kyiv with all types of weapons at once could lead to tough Russian responses, so it was decided to help Ukraine gradually. “In this scenario, Russia was a frog, and we slowly boiled water, and Russia got used to it,” one US official summed up the tactic.

 
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Putin is as stupid as Hitler. Putin has issued another no retreat order for his forces- this time in Kherson, which the Ukrainians are about to storm. The Russian rats are leaving the sinking ship.

Ukrainian officials, videos on social media and accounts from Ukrainian activists who have spoken to residents offered a glimpse of the chaotic situation on the ground in Kherson: Merchants are refusing to be paid in Russian currency, government offices have been emptied of essential equipment and civilians have been told by proxy officials loyal to the Kremlin to take “documents, money, valuables and clothes” and flee the city....

Moscow’s forces and local proxies are engaged in “intense pillaging,” stealing “everything with archaeological and historical significance....

Accounts from Ukrainian officials and activists suggested the occupation administration was in disarray and the humanitarian situation was growing dire. ...

Its loss [of Kherson] would be a severe military and symbolic blow for Mr. Putin, who has rejected requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the city.

 
This guy has said they are only withdrawing from Kherson, if the Ukrainians capture a local dam. It sounds like they are afraid the Ukrainians are going to get it.

 
Here is some indication of the change in the disposition of Russian nuclear weapons. They use a special train to transport nukes. Although I would guess this is another one of Putin's bluffs.



The NY Times is reporting that Russian generals have discussed the use of nukes in Ukraine. Every time one of our guys says the Russians have not changed the disposition of their nuclear weapons, I think of MacBeth- "Methinks he doth protest too much."

 
World leaders gathering at the G20 summit in Bali are attempting to diffuse a potential escalation in the months-long Ukraine war after a Russian-made missile struck NATO-member Poland killing two people.

 
A photograph taken at the blast site of the suspected Russian missile attack in Poland shows a cavernous crater left by the deadly explosion.

The image shows a mangled farm vehicle on the edge of a hole which is at least six-feet deep and around 20-feet wide,

 
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IMHO, the US is trying to push a narrative that the Ukrainians fired the missile that killed two people in Poland. With all due respect, Joe Biden is taking the side of Russia. Joe Biden is afraid of upsetting the Russians. First, the US says it came from Russia. Then, they say it came from an S-300 fired by Ukraine. The S300 does not make a blast crater 20 feet wide by 12 feet deep. On this one, I do not trust our government.

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said he was certain that an explosion that killed two people in Poland was not caused by a Ukrainian missile.

“I have no doubt that it was not our missile,” Mr Zelensky told the Ukrainian media.

He said he believed Tuesday's explosion was caused by a Russian missile, adding that he based his conclusions on reports from Ukraine's military which he “cannot but trust”. "

 
G, are you good with the QOP cutting off aid to Ukraine?
No. Your hypocrisy is rich. The same way I am not good with 70 members of the progressive caucus signing a letter calling for an end to Ukraine support. Let's not forget Biden practices appeasement. We are in this mess because Biden and Obama gutted our military. Obama appeased Putin in 2014, after Russia invaded Crimea. Biden cut and ran from Afghanistan and said he was OK with a minor incursion by Russia.

The democrats only support the Ukraine as long as they control the White House..
 
I am uncertain as to your charge of hypocrisy. There is no negotiating with this Rascist government. I have no love for Russia after living so much of my life under the pall of the threatening communist country. I am in favor of the world supplying Ukraine with most weapons for the defense of their country. I have no problem with the Ukrainians sending all the Rascist orcs home in boxes.
 
I am uncertain as to your charge of hypocrisy. There is no negotiating with this Rascist government. I have no love for Russia after living so much of my life under the pall of the threatening communist country. I am in favor of the world supplying Ukraine with most weapons for the defense of their country. I have no problem with the Ukrainians sending all the Rascist orcs home in boxes.
Which weapons? Abrams tanks, F-16's, long range NTACEMS, and missile defenses?
 
More threats are coming from Russia, as Zelensky meets Biden at the White House. My take: expect a major offensive from Russia beginning on or around Christmas day. The Ukrainians have about three months to roll back Russia.
Expect an offensive from two fronts, from Zaporizhzhia and in the north, around and behind Savatove.
 
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G, are you good with the QOP cutting off aid to Ukraine?
No. I believe in the Reagan Doctrine.
That means that we should provide weapons, tanks, and arms to allow countries to defend themselves. It also means we should provide weapons, arms and tanks to certain insurgents in areas where it is in our national interest. We should arm regional countries who can stand as a bulwark against our enemies. It is in our vital national interest to defeat countries like Russia by supporting proxies like Ukraine and Poland. Obama and Biden failed to arm Ukraine, when they should have. It will cost us a fraction in blood and treasure by having these countries take the fight to Russia/ the USSR. Both Nixon and Reagan propounded these policies.
 
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Interestingly enough, the military bloggers in Russia are saying that Putin will announce the end of the Special Military Operation tomorrow. IMHO, he will announce that Russia is at war and he will call for a full mobilization, including increased conscription and complete mobilization of its industrial capacity. Folks, this is going to be a lot more dangerous. Ukraine has about 3 months.

 
The Russian economy is being pushed into a free fall. This is an analysis of the current condition of the Russian economy. Russia has been decoupled from Europe. This is a
partial translation of "Putinomics"

For half a century, Soviet and then Russian citizens benefited from the sale of gas and oil to Europe. In 2022, Putin turned on the oil and gas blackmail, hoping to achieve the capitulation of the EU and profit along the way from skyrocketing energy prices. And he was wrong twice: by the beginning of 2023, European markets were closed for him, and prices fell at the same time. The Russian Federation is “getting off the oil needle” along the most unfavorable trajectory for its citizens.

 
Great day in the morning. Old Uncle Joe Biden has FINALLY grown a pair of stones sometime in the last 5 days. The US has committed to giving the Ukrainians 31 Abrams tanks, along with the fuel and the logistics. This gave the Germans the political cover to also deliver tanks and to greenlight those in Europe to deliver the German Leopard 2 tanks. There are about 2,000 Leo 2's in Europe. Everyone from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to Poland, France and Spain, are planning to send their tanks to Ukraine. The Russians have nothing that can compete with these tanks. The cost to the US of a massive strategic defeat of Russia will be minimal. Folks, get out the popcorn. 🍿

 
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Here is an assessment of Leopard 2s, which this Russian maintains is the best in the world.
Did Putin think we would tolerate his invasion of Ukraine?


🗡 🐆🐆 "Leopards" released from the cage. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive the main battle tanks of Europe, which are called the best tanks in the world. We explain why the Armed Forces of Ukraine need them so much.

The
Western allies finally agreed: Germany allows the supply of Leopard-2 tanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and some of the tanks will be supplied by itself. We explain why there is such a hype around the Leopards.

There will be something to attack with
Before the war, the basis of the fleet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was the obsolete Soviet T-72 and T-80. For an attack on the prepared lines of the Russians, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need modern tanks. The armies of European countries have over 2,000 Leopard-2s. Their readiness for urgent dispatch to the front attracts allies. If about half of the NATO countries give at least 14 tanks each (one squadron each), Ukraine will have more than a hundred heavy tanks.

"The best tank in the world"
Several leading Western military publications called the Leopard-2 "the best tank in the world." This is the main battle tank of the Bundeswehr, it is in service with another 20 countries. They are at the “base” because they combine all the features necessary for the front: they are heavily armored, very mobile and have high combat power.

The German tank is armed with the same cannon as the Abrams, but, unlike the American tank, can fire effectively while moving over rough terrain. The fire control system is capable of independently detecting camouflaged targets by their thermal radiation. Experts note the high reliability and combat survivability of the tank. Leopards are easier to maintain and consume less fuel than Abrams.

 
This is a good overview of what the Abrams tank can do. The author notes that Biden is still delaying delivery. Biden talks a good talk, but can he be depended on? Biden says we have to build new ones. But, we delivered tanks to Saudi Arabia in three days at the start of desert storm.

 
"Putin is preparing massive assault with ‘500,000 men on two fronts.’ This article mentions that Russia already has over 300,00 troops inside of Ukraine. They expect a renewed assault/ invasion to start on Feb. 24, with an eventual push to Kyiv.

 
Joe Biden's dithering has cost Ukraine the initiative in its war of survival. Everyone I talked to said that the time to arm Ukraine was in November. If the US waited, Russia will be able to flood the area with new canon fodder. The Russians have redoubled their efforts around Bakmut. They have attacked along a wide front.

 
It's not a breakthrough yet. At some point the good guys are going to start running out of ammunition. We need to get serious about this. The longer you wait, the worse it will be. Half measures will only kill more Ukrainians.

 
Biden had better get serious, because all hell is about to break loose in Ukraine. It's time to take off the gloves.
Russia is massing 500,000 men, 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters for the attack, according to a Ukrainian official.
 
This is a very good interview of the Polish Defense Secretary and MSNBC on Morning Joe.
Poland will now be the center of gravity in Western Europe and NATO. Mika Brezenski's father, Zbigniew Brezenski, was the National Security Advisor to President Carter.

 
This is an announcement of the cessation of hostilities on February 26, 2022. It is entitled "The arrival of Russia and a new world" by Petr Akopov.

It claims that Russia is returning to lead a new world order, while making good the "terrible catastrophe" that was the end of the Soviet Union in 1991.
It is headlined "The arrival of Russia in a new world", but the Russian word for "arrival" (nastuplenie) can also mean "attack".
Mr Akopov justifies the "virtual civil war" as "Russia restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together".
Moscow is drawing together "Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians (Ukrainians)", he says, suggesting a Russian plan to increase its sphere of influence.
The architect of this act of reunion is, of course, Mr Putin, who is praised for taking action now, rather than leaving the situation to be resolved in the future.

 
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