At-large NCAA bid

mr.spider

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Nov 18, 2003
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I need some help from SFSpidur and others who can honestly analyze the situation. We are what we are at this point in the season. It sucks, and we should be much better. We all know where (or with whom) the problem lies whether we are willing to admit it or not. But for this thread, he who must not be named should not be mentioned here. Here there is no debating our 3-5 record. It happened, and it is a fact.

What I need to know is do we have a mathematical chance to make the NCAAs if we go undefeated the rest of the way. I'm not looking for whether we have a realistic shot. I think we know that answer. I want to know if it is possible if we don't lose another game all season until the A10 finals.

I would imagine it is still slimly possible, but given we have a very bad loss, no good wins, and not too many chances left to get good wins, I would imagine it is narrowing in on 0 even if we win out until the A10 finals. Please give me your analysis from a factual standpoint.

I support my Spiders with everything I know. And I will be there cheering them on if we are 0-11 IF we are still playing for a chance at a bid. So, please help me evaluate when/if we are eliminated. I would love to see an update on our chances after each game.
 

SpiderTrap

Graduate Assistant
Nov 6, 2007
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If we went undefeated the rest of the way - yes, we would be in. Probably don't even need to make the finals in that scenario.

I actually think we get on the NCAA bubble if we win the rest of our OOC games. That gets us to 7-5 in OOC. Then in A10 play - if we can go, 15-3, then we would be 22-8 overall. We would still likely need to win a game or two in the A10 tourney to feel comfortable. A lot may also depend on who those 3 losses are too. But if we enter A10 tourney at 22-8, and at 15-3 - probably a top seed with a double bye, we win 1, probably 2 games there - I find it hard we don't get in.

Is it realistic based on what we have seen so far. No. But mathematically - it is possible. We still have a chance.
 

Eight Legger

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May 27, 2003
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I believe our longest winning streak ever under Mooney is eight games. I looked it up and posted about it last year. Might be off by a game. Sort of amazing that we haven't lucked our way into a longer streak once in 18 years.
 

mr.spider

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mr. spider u r asking if a 25 game win streak, including 18-0 in conference, would get us an at large bid? I'm surprised at the question but the answer is yes.
Agree we would get in, and agree we shouldn't be asking the question in early December but alas when you crap the bed as bad we did, it is not so clear cut. A couple more losses, and I would imagine we'd be eliminated even with a win streak nearly that long.
 
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mr.spider

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I believe our longest winning streak ever under Mooney is eight games. I looked it up and posted about it last year. Might be off by a game. Sort of amazing that we haven't lucked our way into a longer streak once in 18 years.
EightLegger,
Please edit your post. He who is not to be named is banned from this thread!
 
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97spiderfan

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After 8 games, here is what I know. This team had better win the A-10 championship because UR and at large are not going together this year.

A. We've got Mooney and we know he couldn't string something like that together if he had a gun to his head. And he is living off the largess of last year right now, no urgency.
B. We don't have the talent for an at large. We have some nice pieces that if our coaching staff can get them to play better together, we can certainly win some games this year. But we have too much youth at PG, one high quality player in Burton, who I think plays better as a Robin than a Batman, and to that point we have no Batman.
 

mr.spider

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After 8 games, here is what I know. This team had better win the A-10 championship because UR and at large are not going together this year.

A. We've got Mooney and we know he couldn't string something like that together if he had a gun to his head. And he is living off the largess of last year right now, no urgency.
B. We don't have the talent for an at large. We have some nice pieces that if our coaching staff can get them to play better together, we can certainly win some games this year. But we have too much youth at PG, one high quality player in Burton, who I think plays better as a Robin than a Batman, and to that point we have no Batman.
Moderators, please. Foul, banned words are showing up all over this thread.
 
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VT4700

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If we went undefeated the rest of the way - yes, we would be in. Probably don't even need to make the finals in that scenario.

I actually think we get on the NCAA bubble if we win the rest of our OOC games. That gets us to 7-5 in OOC. Then in A10 play - if we can go, 15-3, then we would be 22-8 overall. We would still likely need to win a game or two in the A10 tourney to feel comfortable. A lot may also depend on who those 3 losses are too. But if we enter A10 tourney at 22-8, and at 15-3 - probably a top seed with a double bye, we win 1, probably 2 games there - I find it hard we don't get in.

Is it realistic based on what we have seen so far. No. But mathematically - it is possible. We still have a chance.
Good post, but we play 13 OOC games. So, 8-5, 15-3 and 23-8.
 

SpiderTrap

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If you asking for a minimum requirement for possible NCAA inclusion by the end of the year - I think a safe bet would be we need to finish the season 18-5, which would put us at 21-10 before the A10 tourney. Even with that type of record, a lot would depend on who we beat and how our numbers shake out - and we would still need some wins in the A10 tourney. But I think a 21-10 record puts us in the conversation - maybe the next four out type of conversation before A10 tourney, and then if we could win a few games there - we are on the bubble.

For NIT consideration, its not much different because remember - NIT teams are teams that just missed the NCAA or won their league regular season. I think for NIT we need to finish 16-7, which puts us at 19-12 and possibly on the NIT bubble. Likely still need some A10 tourney wins, but I think anything below 19-12 - we can forget NIT as well.
 

RichmondNative

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I think it is very unlikely that UR gets an at-large bid because the A10 as a conference doesn’t have a single team in the top 50 of the NET. So the at-large chance comes down to UR being the regular season A10 champion in order to be an at-large (another likely 2 bid year for A10). The chances of winning the A10 tournament and getting the automatic bid are higher in my opinion.
 

VT4700

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If you asking for a minimum requirement for possible NCAA inclusion by the end of the year - I think a safe bet would be we need to finish the season 18-5, which would put us at 21-10 before the A10 tourney. Even with that type of record, a lot would depend on who we beat and how our numbers shake out - and we would still need some wins in the A10 tourney. But I think a 21-10 record puts us in the conversation - maybe the next four out type of conversation before A10 tourney, and then if we could win a few games there - we are on the bubble.

For NIT consideration, its not much different because remember - NIT teams are teams that just missed the NCAA or won their league regular season. I think for NIT we need to finish 16-7, which puts us at 19-12 and possibly on the NIT bubble. Likely still need some A10 tourney wins, but I think anything below 19-12 - we can forget NIT as well.
And a lot depends on how the A-10 does OOC, and it hasn't been a great start. But, like you said, the chance would still be there if we beat the right teams. People on here always want to say an early loss or losses eliminates us from the conversation and that could not be farther from the truth. Bubble teams at the end of the year always have bad losses and many have lots of losses. It is a long season. People forget we went 7-6 OOC, 12-6 IC and lost our 1st round A-10 tourney game and were 1st 4 out at 19-13 one year. You just never know what the bubble will look like.
 

fan2011

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A major issue with getting a bid is the lack of quad 1/2 games during A10 play. Even if we win out we might not have enough good wins left at this point.
 

GKiller

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You can go back to the scheduling updates & other threads this summer & find a lot of ppl advocating for the strength of the A10 as a factor in a weaker OOC sos. Never understood it and said it was Fool's Gold then. & that most likely the A10 would fall in line with how it was performing in recent past. May have been told to go 'watch more basketball' or something along those lines.

Don't ever rely on A10 giving a boost, hopefully a lesson learned for the future.
 
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Despite all his accomplishments Mooney still has the same amount of A-10 regular season championships as myself and everyone else (Pro-Mooney and FMM combined) on this board so I'd say those odds are pretty slim. He has won the A-10 tournament 2/17 times so we've got that going for us.
 

SpiderTrap

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You can go back to the scheduling updates & other threads this summer & find a lot of ppl advocating for the strength of the A10 as a factor in a weaker OOC sos. Never understood it and said it was Fool's Gold then. & that most likely the A10 would fall in line with how it was performing in recent past. May have been told to go 'watch more basketball' or something along those lines.

Don't ever rely on A10 giving a boost, hopefully a lesson learned for the future.
By this thinking - Fordham and Duquesne have to feel good.

Take Fordham for example. They are 8-1 with 4 more OOC games remaining and then 18 A10 games. Lets say they only lose 1 more OOC game, so enter A10 at 11-2. They have played no one so their numbers are not good. But they would still need to finish very strong in the A10 because of that lack of OOC strength. They don't need the same record as UR, they need better. They probably need 23-24 wins entering A10 tourney to be in the mix.
 

SpiderTrap

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I think realistically - to finish out the OOC, we will finish 4-1. I think we beat Drake, and our loss comes to Clemson. That puts us at 7-6 entering A10 play, but entering with a little bit of momentum. Good news/Bad news opening A10 - we open with Mason at their place, and I feel like we never play well against them at their place and they are currently 6-0 at home. So I think that will be tough game, but one we should win.
 

urmite

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I think realistically - to finish out the OOC, we will finish 4-1. I think we beat Drake, and our loss comes to Clemson. That puts us at 7-6 entering A10 play, but entering with a little bit of momentum. Good news/Bad news opening A10 - we open with Mason at their place, and I feel like we never play well against them at their place and they are currently 6-0 at home. So I think that will be tough game, but one we should win.
Yes 4-1, then 4-5 1st half of A-10 schedule for 11-11, then 7-2 2nd half. 18-13...but at least momentum into Brooklyn.
 

MrVCU:

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Aug 19, 2005
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The league has proved me wrong and a doubter before but right now St Louis might still have a legit chance with wins over Memphis & Providence. Last night certainly didn’t help. This year’s tournament in Brooklyn might be like the old pressure packed CAA ones with the survivor being our lone representative. I really thought the league was ready for a great OOC, not yet and actually ugly for the most part. Time will tell on Fordham, Duquesne and UMass but I don’t think they’ve really played anyone.
 
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mr.spider

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Would we get an at-large bid if we win out until the conference finals? We would be 27-7. Would that be enough, though, given we have no real chances for a good win since the A10 is so weak this year? I've seen teams in the NIT with better records. Given our weak schedule and results this year, that could be us this year, I would imagine. I think we would *probably* still get in if we pulled that off.

Again, I know the odds are extremely difficult. I just want to know if it is possible.

I love my team, but the misery I feel is not worth it if we are eliminated. If we're still in the running I'm 100% in regardless of our record and the odds against us. If we're eliminated so be it, I'll see you in the A10 tourny when we have another chance.
 

mr.spider

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According to this site, they project us to get in with 27 wins. I think that includes the chance that we win the A10 tourny. I would like to know the odds by win totals without winning the A10 tourny.
 

GKiller

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According to this site, they project us to get in with 27 wins. I think that includes the chance that we win the A10 tourny. I would like to know the odds by win totals without winning the A10 tourny.

Think u should be satisfied u have sites like that & Torvik which will continue to get updated.
 

SpiderTrap

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Change thread to NIT bid, that should be our goal now. NCAA bid is only going to happen this year if we win A10 tourney
 

mr.spider

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I think that this talk is ridiculous given Mooney's track record and results to date. Laughable.
Of course the odds are almost impossible. I need to know if there's a mathematical chance because I will be there for my team against all odds if they have anything left to play for it.
 

mr.spider

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Change thread to NIT bid, that should be our goal now. NCAA bid is only going to happen this year if we win A10 tourney
If that's an absolute fact, I'll see you at the A10 tourny. In the mean time, I wish the team good practices to get ready for the tourny.
 

SpiderGuy

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Change thread to NIT bid, that should be our goal now. NCAA bid is only going to happen this year if we win A10 tourney
Don’t disagree, but I’d go one step further and say, “change thread to winning season”.

With what we’ve seen so far this season, and depending upon how the conference shakes out, I believe .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.

Right now we’re not NCAA nor NIT team.
 

SpiderTrap

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Don’t disagree, but I’d go one step further and say, “change thread to winning season”.

With what we’ve seen so far this season, and depending upon how the conference shakes out, I believe .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.

Right now we’re not NCAA nor NIT team.
I can see that for sure, but I am still holding hope (very little) that our best basketball is ahead of us.

I was hoping to see improvement as the season went on, thinking with the new players and new roles, it would take time for them to gel together. I thought we saw some improvement with the Drake game and FDU, by not getting off to bad starts and keeping leads when we got them - Clemson brought us back to earth. Now - I did think we could beat Clemson, but even if we didn't - I thought, okay, this should be a close game, maybe comes down to the last few minutes. And if we lose by 4-6 points, no big deal - we are heading in the right direction. Instead - we took two steps back, and loss by 30. And never had a chance after the first few minutes.

Still some hope - gotta beat Bucknell and Coppin, and hope we do it in comfortable fashion (think Bucknell might give us a game for a half). Cause right now on the road - we are not good, and with Mason being the first A10 game and on the road, it could be a bad start.
 

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