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2010-2011 vs. 2019-2020

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nathanw19

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Jan 3, 2009
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After yesterday’s crapfest, I decided to take a look at our last tourney team to see if I could find some hope for this year. I used KenPom rankings because they have data from 2011. Here are the 2 schedules side by side, with W/L and KenPom of opponent.

2010-2011 2019-2020
The Citadel, W, 282 St. Francis, W, 178
W&M, W, 226 Vanderbilt, W, 137
@Iona, L, 66 CSN, W, 252
Charleston So., W, 211 McNeese St, W, 289
Southern, W, 345 vs. Wisconsin, W, 51
vs. Wright St., W, 111 vs. Auburn, L, 15
vs. Purdue, W, 9 BC, W, 131
@ODU, L, 48 @Hampton, W, 281
@ASU, W, 139 S. Bama, W, 183
VCU, W, 53 Charleston, W, 157
vs. GT, L, 100 @ODU, W, 177
@ UNC Green., W, 284 vs.Radford, L, 125
@Seton Hall, W, 59 @Bama, 64
Wake, W, 259 St. Joe’s, 242
Bucknell, L, 96 URI, 82
Charlotte,W, 207 St. Louis, 91
@ La Salle, W, 172 @Davidson, 71
URI, L, 120 @George Mason, 114
GW, W, 175 La Salle, 152
@UMass, W, 180 Dayton, 12
@Dayton, W, 97 @VCU, 49
Xavier, L, 38 GW, 236
St. Joe’s, W, 187 @Fordham, 241
@Fordham, W, 290 @La Salle, 152
@GW, W, 175 VCU, 49
St. Louis, W, 127 George Mason, 114
@Temple, L, 34 @St. Bon., 124
St. Bon., W, 151 @GW, 236
@Charlotte, W, 207 UMass, 194
@St. Joe’s, W, 187 Davidson, 71
Duquesne, W, 55 @Duquesne, 69
vs. URI, W, 120 (A10 quarters)
vs. Temple, W, 35 (A10 semis)
vs. Dayton, W, 97 (A10 finals)

I have a few of takeaways. First, the average KenPom ranking for our losses through 12 games are 71.33 (2010-2011) and 70 (2019-2020). The average ranking for our wins are 184.4 (2010-2011) and 183.6 (2019-2020).

Second, Bama is a HUGE game. It would be the equivalent of Seton Hall (and lines up perfectly on the schedules). Really need that win.

Third, our average opponents’ rankings for the A10 schedule in 2010-2011 was 150.125 while it is 127.72 this year. A stronger A10 schedule gives a little more margin of error in conference (2010-2011 team went 13-3). On top of that, it is a top heavy and bottom heavy league this year, allowing for some really good wins (if we can do it).

Overall, I think our profile looks pretty similar to 2010-2011 up to now. That team had a bigger scalp (Purdue), but this team has more solid wins. However, I think this year’s A10 gives us more chances for good wins than 2010-2011 did, so hopefully we can take advantage.

A couple caveats: this is comparing full season rankings to mid season rankings and the 2010-2011 team got 3 wins in the A10 tourney and still only got a 12 seed. That being said, comparing them gives me some hope that while the Radford loss certainly sets us back this year, there is still hope. Lots of work left to do, starting with Bama, but we’re not out of the NCAA hunt.
 
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I agree - hope is not loss. But hope will be loss if they lose to Alabama and then stumble early in the A10 slate. Then it will be loss pretty quick. Lets see how they return from break.
 
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I would love to see 6-3 instead of the commonly predicted 3-6 for the next 9...
Getting through that at
16-5
15-6
14-7
13-8
Are all vastly different...
 
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nathanw19 said:
After yesterday’s crapfest, I decided to take a look at our last tourney team to see if I could find some hope for this year. I used KenPom rankings because they have data from 2011. Here are the 2 schedules side by side, with W/L and KenPom of opponent.

2010-2011 2019-2020
The Citadel, W, 282 St. Francis, W, 178
W&M, W, 226 Vanderbilt, W, 137
@Iona, L, 66 CSN, W, 252
Charleston So., W, 211 McNeese St, W, 289
Southern, W, 345 vs. Wisconsin, W, 51
vs. Wright St., W, 111 vs. Auburn, L, 15
vs. Purdue, W, 9 BC, W, 131
@ODU, L, 48 @Hampton, W, 281
@ASU, W, 139 S. Bama, W, 183
VCU, W, 53 Charleston, W, 157
vs. GT, L, 100 @ODU, W, 177
@ UNC Green., W, 284 vs.Radford, L, 125
@Seton Hall, W, 59 @Bama, 64
Wake, W, 259 St. Joe’s, 242
Bucknell, L, 96 URI, 82
Charlotte,W, 207 St. Louis, 91
@ La Salle, W, 172 @Davidson, 71
URI, L, 120 @George Mason, 114
GW, W, 175 La Salle, 152
@UMass, W, 180 Dayton, 12
@Dayton, W, 97 @VCU, 49
Xavier, L, 38 GW, 236
St. Joe’s, W, 187 @Fordham, 241
@Fordham, W, 290 @La Salle, 152
@GW, W, 175 VCU, 49
St. Louis, W, 127 George Mason, 114
@Temple, L, 34 @St. Bon., 124
St. Bon., W, 151 @GW, 236
@Charlotte, W, 207 UMass, 194
@St. Joe’s, W, 187 Davidson, 71
Duquesne, W, 55 @Duquesne, 69
vs. URI, W, 120 (A10 quarters)
vs. Temple, W, 35 (A10 semis)
vs. Dayton, W, 97 (A10 finals)

I have a few of takeaways. First, the average KenPom ranking for our losses through 12 games are 71.33 (2010-2011) and 70 (2019-2020). The average ranking for our wins are 184.4 (2010-2011) and 183.6 (2019-2020).

Second, Bama is a HUGE game. It would be the equivalent of Seton Hall (and lines up perfectly on the schedules). Really need that win.

Third, our average opponents’ rankings for the A10 schedule in 2010-2011 was 150.125 while it is 127.72 this year. A stronger A10 schedule gives a little more margin of error in conference (2010-2011 team went 13-3). On top of that, it is a top heavy and bottom heavy league this year, allowing for some really good wins (if we can do it).

Overall, I think our profile looks pretty similar to 2010-2011 up to now. That team had a bigger scalp (Purdue), but this team has more solid wins. However, I think this year’s A10 gives us more chances for good wins than 2010-2011 did, so hopefully we can take advantage.

A couple caveats: this is comparing full season rankings to mid season rankings and the 2010-2011 team got 3 wins in the A10 tourney and still only got a 12 seed. That being said, comparing them gives me some hope that while the Radford loss certainly sets us back this year, there is still hope. Lots of work left to do, starting with Bama, but we’re not out of the NCAA hunt.
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Thanks for all of that analysis and info. The thing is that the 10-11 team never lost to the likes of Radford on a neutral court by double digits and looked miserably doing it. Im glad you are still hopeful but from my perspective the outlook for making dance just got very bleak. That game provesCM is still CM and if a decent coach does a little planning ahead of the game, and throws CM off his game plan, we can lose to anyone.
 
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The 2011 team won the A10 tournament and got an automatic bid. It doesn't matter what your record is or who you play if you get the automatic qualifier. Your comparison is meaningless here. I wouldn't give a crap about Radford if I KNEW we would win the tournament.
 
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fatherspider said:
Thanks for all of that analysis and info. The thing is that the 10-11 team never lost to the likes of Radford on a neutral court by double digits and looked miserably doing it. Im glad you are still hopeful but from my perspective the outlook for making dance just got very bleak. That game provesCM is still CM and if a decent coach does a little planning ahead of the game, and throws CM off his game plan, we can lose to anyone.
Click to expand...
Not disputing your analysis of the coach, and not saying I rely heavily on statistics, but statistics do indicate that the 2010-2011 URI team that we lost to at home was similar overall to this year's Radford (may be easily disproven in Big south games...).

What is disconcerting is the way the game was lost...
 
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SpiderRick said:
The 2011 team won the A10 tournament and got an automatic bid. It doesn't matter what your record is or who you play if you get the automatic qualifier. Your comparison is meaningless here. I wouldn't give a crap about Radford if I KNEW we would win the tournament.
Click to expand...
There may be a lot of holes in it, but I think it is only meaningless if you were not getting an at-large if you lost in Brooklyn.
I'm not sure if we know what our situation would have been.
 
where we wound up seeding-wise, we very well could have been left out of the NCAA in 2011 if we didn't win the a10 championship.
 
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